An Assessment of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh: The Experience of the 1998 Flood

Floods are among the most costly natural disasters interms of human sufferings and economic losses inBangladesh. Approximately 20% of the countryexperiences normal annual flooding while all thehistorical catastrophic floods inundated more thanfifty percent of the country's total area. The recentflood in 1998 has been found to be more severe thanall previous floods. During the flooding season of1998, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC)of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)prepared daily flood bulletin and incorporatedinformation about rainfall, rise/fall of riverwater, flood forecasting for 24 and 48 hr inadvance and warning messages (if any). The FFWCattempted to provide adequate services to the localand national level decision-making process. Theforecasting procedure adapted by the FFWC was based onhydrological information, forecaster's experience, andmodel simulation. This paper primarily examines therole and activities of the FFWC, especially in floodforecasting and warning. Identification of the causesand consequences of 1998 flood is the other pertinentarea of discussion of the paper.Findings of this research revealed that the flood of1998 was caused by heavy downpour in the upstream thatwas drained out through the major rivers inBangladesh. Three major rivers' peak was synchronizedand characterized it as the most prolonged flood inthe history of Bangladesh. It also revealed that,despite various limitations, the flood forecasts ofthe FFWC were reasonably adequate to meet nationaldemand during the crises of 1998.     

Hydrogeochemical evaluation and statistical analysis of groundwater of Sylhet,north-eastern Bangladesh

To investigate the hydrogeochemical characteristics of groundwater 23 shallow, 30 intermediate and 38 deep wells samples were collected from Sylhet district of Bangladesh, and analyzed for temperature, pH, Eh, EC,DO, DOC, Na^+, K^+, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^-, SO_4^2-, NO_3^-,HCO_3^-, SiO_2^-, Fe, Mn and As. Besides, 12 surface water samples from Surma and Kushiyara Rivers were also collected and analyzed to understand the influence into aquifers. Results revealed that, most of the groundwater samples are acidic in nature, and Na–HCO_3 is the dominant groundwater type. The mean value of temperature, EC,Na^+, K^+, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^-, NO_3^- and SO_4^2- were found within the range of permissible limits, while most of the samples exceeds the allowable limits of Fe, Mn and As concentrations. However, relatively higher concentration of Fe and Mn were found in deep water samples and reverse trend was found in case of As. The mean concentrations of As in shallow, intermediate and deep wells were 39.3, 25.3and 21.4 lg/L respectively, which varied from 0.03 to148 lg/L. From spatial distribution, it was found that Fe,Mn and As concentrations are high but patchy in northern,north-western, and south-western part of Sylhet region. The most influential geochemical process in study area were identified as silicate weathering, characterized by active cation exchange process and carbonate weathering, which thereby can enhance the elemental concentrations in groundwater. Pearson's correlation matrix, principal component analysis and cluster analysis were also employed to evaluate the controlling factors, and it was found that, both natural and anthropogenic sources were influencing the groundwater chemistry of the aquifers. However, surface water has no significant role to contaminate the aquifers,rather geogenic factors affecting the trace elemental contamination. Thus it is expected that, outcomes of this study will provide useful insights for future groundwater monitoring and management of the study area.     

Origin of the regional stress field along the Liquine-Ofqui Fault Zone （LOFZ）, Southern Chilean Andes by means of FE Simulation

The Liquine-Ofqui Fault Zone （LOFZ） of southern Chilean Andes is one of the largest active strike-slip fault zones. There is an ongoing debate regarding the origin of the stress field along the LOFZ due to its complex geometry. This paper represents a study of the origins of the LOFZ regional stress field. Stress fields are calculated by finite element （FE） analysis. The two possible stress origins, i.e., oblique plate convergence and ridge collision/indenter tectonics of Chile ridge against Peru-Chile trench, have been emphasized in the present study. Three types of boundary conditions for the three particular models have been applied to calculate stress fields. Models are assumed to be elastic and plane stress condition. Modeling results are presented in terms of four parameters, i. e., orientation of maximum horizontal stress （σHmax）, displacement vector, strain distribution, and maximum shear stress （ τmax ） contour line within the model. The results of the first model with oblique plate convergence show inconsistency between the geometric shape of the LOFZ and the distribution of the four parameters. Although more realistic results are obtained from the second model with normal ridge collision, there are few coincident in the LOFZ geometry and regional stress field. The third model with normal and oblique ridge collision is reasonable in understanding the origin of stress field and geometrical condition in the lithosphere of the LOFZ.     

利用Landsat TM和IRS P6 LISS III卫星影像及GIS对耕地和耕种模式的时空动态分析(英文)

The study of the spatial patterns and temporal changes of cropland is important to understand the underlying factors and the functional effects of the agricultural landscape. On the other hand, crop dynamics mapping is essential to know the overall agro-spatial diversity of the area. Therefore, this paper addressed a spatio-temporal analysis of cropland and cropping pattern change in the Bogra district of Bangladesh over the last 16 years (between 1988/89 and 2004/05). In this paper, crop mapping from multi-temporal and multi-sensor satellite images was described. Landsat TM and IRS P6 LISS III satellite images were used with GIS for spatial dynamics of cropland and cropping pattern change analysis. First, seasonal cropland maps were derived from object-based classification of satellite images, then two-date classified image differencing with GIS overlay technique and decision rules were applied. Cropping pattern change was analyzed in a spatial and quantitative way for the 16 years and for this, Integrated Land and Water Information System (ILWIS) and Land Change Modular (LCM) of IDRISI Andes were used. The results showed that in the area, mono crop cultivation was found in summer, but in winter, areas under different crop cultivation had changed dramatically. Change analysis showed that the changes mainly occurred in the north northwest and southwest of the areas, and during the time the highest change area was found under the rice-potato pattern.      

Seasonal Shift in Community Structure of Periphytic Ciliates in Estuarine Waters in the Northern Bay of Bengal,Bangladesh

To investigate the seasonal heterogeneity of the periphytic ciliate communities, a 1-year baseline survey was conducted in the Karnaphuli River estuary, northern Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh. A total of 54 ciliate species were recorded, including seven common and 14 dominant species. Maximum species number was in autumn whereas maximum abundance was in winter; the minimum for both occurred in summer. Multivariate analyses, i.e., canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) and principal co-ordinates analysis (PCoA), revealed a clear seasonal heterogeneity of community structure and environmental variables. Multivariate correlation analysis (RELATE) demonstrated that the community structure of the periphytic ciliate communities was significantly correlated with environmental variables, and best matching analysis (BIOENV) indicated that heterogeneity of community patterns was mainly driven by water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids and nutrients. Species richness and diversity peaked in autumn whereas species evenness peaked in summer. These results suggest that environmental conditions shape periphytic ciliate community structure, which is a potentially useful bio-indicator of estuarine water quality.     

Assessment of Red Bed Groundwater in the Jinqu Basin,Southeastern China: Its Enrichment Regularity and Emergency Exploitation Potential

Natural Resources Research - Due to unbalanced spatial distribution and insufficient capacity allocation of water resources in the Jinqu Basin, developing and utilizing the red bed groundwater...     

ENSO and seasonal sea-level variability – A diagnostic discussion for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

Summary The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle is the basis for this paper, aimed at providing a diagnostic outlook on seasonal sea-level variability (i.e. anomalies with respect to the Climatology) for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). Results revealed that the sea-level variations in the northwestern tropical Pacific islands (e.g. Guam and Marshall Islands) have been found to be sensitive to ENSO-cycle, with low sea-level during El Ni?o and high sea-level during La Ni?a events. The annual cycle (first harmonic) of sea-level variability in these north Pacific islands has also been found to be very strong. The composites of SST and circulation diagnostic show that strong El Ni?o years feature stronger surface westerly winds in the equatorial western/central Pacific, which causes north Pacific islands to experience lower sea-level from July to December, while the sea-level in south Pacific islands (e.g. American Samoa) remains unchanged. As the season advances, the band of westerly winds propagates towards the south central tropical Pacific and moves eastward, which causes American Samoa to experience a lower sea-level from January to June, but with six months time lag as compared to Guam and the Marshalls. U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands are among the most vulnerable communities to climate variability and change. This study has identified the year-to-year ENSO climate cycle to have significant impact on the sea-level variability of these islands. Therefore, regular monitoring of the ENSO climate cycle features that affect seasonal sea-level variability would provide substantial opportunities to develop advance planning and decision options regarding hazard management in these islands.     

Trend analysis of maximum,minimum, and average temperatures in Bangladesh: 1961–2008

The present study is about the analysis of mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures carried out on annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales examining the data from 15 meteorological stations in Bangladesh for the period 1961–2008. Various spatial and statistical tools were used to display and analyze trends in temperature data. ArcGIS was used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using Thiessen polygon method. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine whether there is a positive or negative trend in data with their statistical significance. Sen’s method was also used to determine the magnitude of the trends. The results reveal positive trends in annual mean and mean maximum temperatures with 95 % significance. Trend test reveals that the significant positive trend is found in June to November in case of mean maximum temperature, but according to the mean minimum temperature, the situation is different and a significant positive trend was found from November to February. The analysis of the whole record reveals a tendency toward warmer years, with significantly warmer summer periods and slightly colder winters. These warming patterns may have important impacts on energy consumption, water supply, human health, and natural environment in Bangladesh.