Comparison of the Data-Driven Random Forests Model and a Knowledge-Driven Method for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping: A Case Study for Gold Deposits Around the Huritz Group and Nueltin Suite,Nunavut, Canada

This paper outlines the process taken to create two separate gold prospectivity maps. The first was created using a combination of several knowledge-driven (KD) techniques. The second was created using a relatively new classification method called random forests (RF). The purpose of this study was to examine the results of the RF technique and to compare the results to that of the KD model. The datasets used for the creation of evidence maps for the gold prospectivity mapping include a comprehensive lake sediment geochemical dataset, interpreted geological structures (form lines), mapped and interpreted faults, lithology, topographic features (lakes), and known Au occurrences. The RF method performed well in that the gold prospectivity map created was a better predictor of the known Au occurrences than the KD gold prospectivity map. This was further validated by a fivefold repetition using a subset of the input training areas. Several advantages to the use of RF include (1) the ability to take both continuous and/or categorical data as variable inputs, (2) an internal, unbiased estimation of the mapping error (out-of-bag error) removing the need for a cross-validation of the final outputs to determine accuracy, and (3) the estimation of importance of each input variable. Efficiency of prediction curves illustrates that the RF method performs better than the KD method. The success rate is significantly higher for the RF method than for the KD method.     

The ultraviolet environment of Mars: biological implications past, present, and future.

A radiative transfer model is used to quantitatively investigate aspects of the martian ultraviolet radiation environment, past and present. Biological action spectra for DNA inactivation and chloroplast (photosystem) inhibition are used to estimate biologically effective irradiances for the martian surface under cloudless skies. Over time Mars has probably experienced an increasingly inhospitable photobiological environment, with present instantaneous DNA weighted irradiances 3.5-fold higher than they may have been on early Mars. This is in contrast to the surface of Earth, which experienced an ozone amelioration of the photobiological environment during the Proterozoic and now has DNA weighted irradiances almost three orders of magnitude lower than early Earth. Although the present-day martian UV flux is similar to that of early Earth and thus may not be a critical limitation to life in the evolutionary context, it is a constraint to an unadapted biota and will rapidly kill spacecraft-borne microbes not covered by a martian dust layer. Microbial strategies for protection against UV radiation are considered in the light of martian photobiological calculations, past and present. Data are also presented for the effects of hypothetical planetary atmospheric manipulations on the martian UV radiation environment with estimates of the biological consequences of such manipulations.     

Analytic investigation of climate stability on Titan: sensitivity to volatile inventory

We develop a semiempirical grey radiative model to quantify Titan’s surface temperature as a function of pressure and composition of a nitrogen-methane-hydrogen atmosphere, solar flux and atmospheric haze. We then use this model, together with non-ideal gas-liquid equilibrium theory to investigate the behavior of the coupled surface-atmosphere system on Titan. We find that a volatile-rich Titan is unstable with respect to a runaway greenhouse—small increases in solar luminosity from the present value can lead to massive increases in surface temperature. If methane has been photolyzed throughout Titan’s history, then this runaway can only be avoided if the photolytic ethane is removed from the surface-atmosphere system.     

Determination of physical properties of a planetary surface by measuring the deceleration of a probe upon impact: Application to Titan

We report scale model laboratory experiments showing how an impact accelerometer on a planetary probe (based on the Huygens probe Phase A configuration) can provide significant information on the mechanical characteristics of the surface. In particular, solid and liquid surfaces can be discriminated. The density of liquids can in principle be determined from the peak deceleration, thereby providing a constraint on composition, although experimental uncertainties present challenges to the accuracy of this method.     

Geochemical examination of obsidians from Newberry Caldera,Oregon

Five obsidian flows located in Newberry Caldera, Oregon, were systematically sampled, and the samples have been chemically analyzed to examine the homogeneity in a single large flow and to study chemical differences among the flows. The largest flow, the Big Obsidian Flow, is highly homogeneous chemically. The five flows are very similar in composition, indicating a common source. Small chemical differences among the flows do exist, but the geologic cause of the differences is not determined.     

On the habitability of Europa

It has recently been suggested that tidal and radiogenic heating of Europa has led to formation and maintenance of a liquid water ocean overlain by a thin ice crust (S. W. Squyres, R. T. Reynolds, P. M. Cassen, and S. J. Peale (1983). Nature301, 225–226). The present work examines the environmental consequences of such a model with regard to the possible existence on Europa of regions that could satisfy the basic requirements for the survival of known organisms. Appropriate temperatures and long-term environmental stability are implied by the ocean model. The presence of necessary biogenic elements is assumed based on the expected origin of the ocean. The availability of biologically useful energy is assumed to be the principal limiting factor for life on Europa. Possible electrical, thermal, and chemical energy sources are discussed. Calculated resurfacing rates for the active crust model are used to estimate the quantity of photosynthetically active radiation that might reach the proposed ocean through crustal fractures. The amount of biomass that this energy could support, based on Antartic microorganism analogs, is estimated and discussed. Although these calculations cannot determine whether life forms exist or could exist on Europa, they do suggest that there may be regions on Europa, very limited on both space and time, with physical conditions that are within the range of adaptation of life on Earth.     

Episodic ocean-induced CO2 greenhouse on Mars: implications for fluvial valley formation

Pulses of CO2 injected into the martian atmosphere more recently than 4 Ga can place the atmosphere into a stable, higher pressure, warmer greenhouse state. One to two bar pulses of CO2 added to the atmosphere during the past several billion years are sufficient to raise global mean temperatures above 240 or 250 K for tens to hundreds of millions of years, even when accounting for CO2 condensation. Over time, the added CO2 is lost to carbonates, the atmosphere collapses and returns to its buffered state. A substantial amount of water could be transported during the greenhouse periods from the surface of a frozen body of water created by outflow channel discharges to higher elevations, despite global temperatures well below freezing. This water, precipitated as snow, could ultimately form fluvial valleys if deposition sites are associated with localized heat sources, such as magmatic intrusions or volcanoes. Thus, if outflow channel discharges were accompanied by the release of sufficient quantities of CO2, a limited hydrological cycle could have resulted that would have been capable of producing geomorphic change sufficient for fluvial erosion and valley formation. Glacial or periglacial landforms would also be a consequence of such a mechanism.     

Photochemical modeling of Titan's atmosphere

We have developed a new photochemical model of Titan's atmosphere which includes all the important compounds and reactions in spherical geometry from the surface to 1240 km. Compared to the previous model of Yung et al. (1984, Astrophys. J. Suppl. 55, 465-506), the most significant recent change in the reactions used is the updated methane photodissociation scheme (Mordaunt et al. 1993, J. Chem. Phys. 98(3), 2054-2065). Moreover, the transfer of the solar radiation in the atmosphere and the photolysis rates have been calculated by using a Monte Carlo code. Finally, the eddy diffusion coefficient profile is adjusted in order to fit the mean vertical distribution of HCN retrieved from millimeter groundbased observations of Tanguy et al. (1990, Icarus, 85, 43-57) using new values for the boundary flux of atomic nitrogen (Strobel et al. 1992, Icarus 100, 512-526). We have run the model in both steady-state and diurnal modes, with 62 speices involved in 249 reactions. There is little difference between diurnal and steady-state results. Overall our results are in a closer agreement with the abundances inferred from the Voyager infrared measurements at the equator than the Yung et al. results. We find that the catalytic scheme for H recombination invoked by Yung et al. only slightly improves the model results and we conclude that this scheme is not essential to fit observations.     

Dissolved gases in perennially ice-covered lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Measurements of dissolved N2, O2, Ar, CO2, and CH4 were made in perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare. Results confirm previous reports that O2 concentrations in the upper water column exceed atmospheric equilibrium and that N2 and Ar are supersaturated throughout the water column. The mean supersaturation of N2 was found to be 2.0 (+/- 0.37) and Ar was 3.8 (+/- 1.1). The ratios of N2/Ar (20.3 +/- 13.8), and O2/Ar (22.5 +/- 4.0) at the ice-water interface are consistent with those previously measured, suggesting that bubble formation is the main process for removing gas from the lake. However, the saturations of N2 and Ar greatly exceed those previously predicted for degassing by bubble formation only at the ice-water interface. The data support the hypothesis that removal of gas by bubbles occurs in the water column to a depth of 11 m in Lake Hoare. CO2 concentration increases from near zero at the ice-water interface to 80-100 times saturation at and below the chemocline at c. 28 m. There is considerable variability in the gas concentrations throughout the water column; samples separated in depth by one metre may vary by more than 50% in gas content. It is likely that this phenomenon results from the lack of turbulent mixing in the water column. Methane (c. 2 micrograms l-1) was detected below the chemocline and immediately above the sediment/water interface at a depth of 30 m. Samples from lakes Vanda, Joyce, and Miers, also show supersaturations of O2, N2, and Ar at levels similar to levels found in Lake Hoare.     

Soil temperatures and stability of ice-cemented ground in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Year-round temperature measurements at 1600 m elevation during 1994 in the Asgard Range Antarctica, indicate that the mean annual frost point of the ice-cemented ground, 25 cm below the surface, is -21.7 +/- 0.2 degrees C and the mean annual frost point of the atmosphere is -27.5 +/- 1.0 degrees C. The corresponding mean annual temperatures are -24.9 degrees C and -23.3 degrees C. These results imply that there is a net flux of water vapour from the ice to the atmosphere resulting in a recession of the ice-cemented ground by about 0.4-0.6 mm yr-1. The level of the ice-cemented permafrost is about 12 cm below the level of dry permafrost. The summer air temperatures would have to increase about 7 degrees C for thawing temperatures to just reach the top of the subsurface ice. Either subsurface ice at this location is evaporating over time or there are sporadic processes that recharge the ice and maintain equilibrium over long timescales.