A model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars

We have constructed a model that predicts the evolution of CO2 on Mars from the end of the heavy bombardment period to the present. The model draws on published estimates of the main processes believed to affect the fate of CO2 during this period: chemical weathering, regolith uptake, polar cap formation, and atmospheric escape. Except for escape, the rate at which these processes act is controlled by surface temperatures which we calculate using a modified version of the Gierasch and Toon energy balance model (1973, J. Atmos. Sci. 30, 1502-1508). The modifications account for the change in solar luminosity with time, the greenhouse effect, and a polar and solar equatorial energy budget. Using published estimates for the main parameters, we find no evolutionary scenario in which CO2 is capable of producing a warm (global mean temperatures>250 K) and wet (surface pressures>30 mbar) early climate, and then evolves to present conditions with approximately 7 mbar in the atmosphere, <300 mbar in the regolith, and <5 mbar in the caps. Such scenarios would only exist if the early sun were brighter than standard solar models suggest, if greenhouse gases other than CO2 were present in the early atmosphere, or if the polar albedo were significantly lower than 0.75. However, these scenarios generally require the storage of large amounts of CO2 (>1 bar) in the carbonate reservoir. If the warm and wet early Mars constraint is relaxed, then we find best overall agreement with present day reservoirs for initial CO2 inventories of 0.5-1.0 bar. We also find that the polar caps can a profound effect on how the system evolves. If the initial amount of CO2 is less than some critical value, then there is not enough heating of the poles to prevent permanent caps from forming. Once formed, these caps control how the system evolves, because they set the surface pressure and, hence, the thermal environment. If the initial amount of CO2 is greater than this critical value, then caps do not form initially, but can form later on, when weathering and escape lower the surface pressure to a point at which polar heating is no longer sufficient to prevent cap formation and the collapse of the climate system. Our modeling suggests this critical initial amount of CO2 is between 1 and 2 bar, but its true value will depend on all factors affecting the polar heat budget.     

Optical properties of Titan and early Earth haze laboratory analogs in the mid-visible

Scattering and absorption of sunlight by aerosols are integral to understanding the radiative balance of any planetary atmosphere covered in a haze, such as Titan and possibly the early Earth. One key optical parameter of an aerosol is its refractive index. We have simulated both Titan and early Earth organic haze aerosols in the laboratory and measured the real and imaginary portion of their refractive index at λ = 532 nm using cavity ringdown aerosol extinction spectroscopy. This novel technique allows analysis on freely-floating particles minutes after formation. For our Titan analog particles, we find a real refractive index of n = 1.35 ± 0.01 and an imaginary refractive index k = 0.023 ± 0.007, and for the early Earth analog particles we find n = 1.81 ± 0.02 and k = 0.055 ± 0.020. The Titan analog refractive index has a smaller real and similar imaginary refractive index compared to most previous laboratory measurements of Titan analog films, including values from Khare et al. (Khare, B.N., Sagan, C., Arakawa, E.T., Suits, F., Callcott, T.A., Williams, M.W. [1984]. Icarus 60, 127-137). These newly measured Titan analog values have implications for spacecraft retrievals of aerosol properties on Titan. The early Earth analog has a significantly higher real and imaginary refractive index than Titan analogs reported in the literature. These differences suggest that, for a given amount of aerosol, the early Earth analog would act as a stronger anti-greenhouse agent than the Titan analog.     

Fluvial suspended sediment yields over hours to millennia in the High Arctic at proglacial Lake Linnévatnet,Svalbard

Sediment yield can be a sensitive indicator of catchment dynamics and environmental change. For a glacierized catchment in the High Arctic, we compiled and analyzed diverse sediment transfer data, spanning a wide range of temporal scales, to quantify catchment yields and explore landscape response to past and ongoing hydroclimatic variability. The dataset integrates rates of lake sedimentation from correlated varve records and repeated annual and seasonal sediment traps, augmented by multi‐year lake and fluvial monitoring. Consistent spatial patterns of deposition enabled reconstruction of catchment yields from varve‐ and trap‐based fluxes. We used hydroclimatic data and multivariate modeling to examine annual controls of sediment delivery over almost a century, and to examine shorter‐term controls of sediment transfer during peak glacier melt. Particle‐size analyses, especially for annual sediment traps, were used to further infer sediment transfer mechanisms and timing. Through the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, there were no apparent multi‐century trends in lake sedimentation rates, which were over three times greater than those during the mid‐Holocene when glaciers were diminished. Twentieth‐century sedimentation rates were greater than those of previous millennia, with a mid‐century step increase in mean yield from 240 to 425 Mg km^?2 yr^?1. Annual yields through the twentieth century showed significant positive relations with spring/summer temperature, rainfall, and peak discharge conditions. This finding is significant for the future of sediment transfer at Linnévatnet, and perhaps more broadly in the Arctic, where continued increases in temperature and rainfall are projected. For 2004–2010, annual yields ranged from 294 to 1330 Mg km^?2 yr^?1. Sediment trap volumes and particle‐size variations indicate that recent annual yields were largely dominated by spring to early summer transfer of relatively coarse‐grained sediment. Fluvial monitoring showed daily to hourly sediment transfer to be related to current and prior discharge, diurnal hysteresis, air temperature, and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Iron deficiency in micro-sized diatoms in the Oyashio region of the Western subarctic Pacific during spring

In order to detect iron (Fe) stress in micro-sized (20–200 μm) diatoms in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific during spring, immunological ferredoxin/flavodoxin assays were applied to samples collected from the surface layer in May 2005. Concomitantly, the community composition of the micro-sized phytoplankton and hydrographic conditions, including dissolved Fe and macronutrient concentrations, were also examined. Chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations were <2 mg m⁻³ at all sampling stations, except at a station where the Chl a level was 9.0 mg m⁻³ and a micro-sized diatom bloom occurred. A high abundance of ferredoxin in micro-sized diatoms was detected only at a rather near-shore station where dissolved Fe and macronutrient concentrations were higher, indicating that the micro-sized diatoms did not suffer from iron deficiency. On the other hand, flavodoxin in micro-sized diatoms was often observed at the other stations, including the bloom station, where macronutrients were replete but dissolved Fe concentration was low (0.31 nM). A significant amount of chlorophyllide a, a degradation product of Chl a, was also observed at the bloom station, suggesting a decline of the diatom bloom. The micro-sized phytoplankton species at all the stations were mainly composed of the diatoms Thalassiosira, Chaetoceros, and Fragilariopsis spp. Our study indicates that micro-sized diatoms were stressed by Fe bioavailability during the spring season in the Oyashio region     

Analytic investigation of climate stability on Titan: sensitivity to volatile inventory

We develop a semiempirical grey radiative model to quantify Titan’s surface temperature as a function of pressure and composition of a nitrogen-methane-hydrogen atmosphere, solar flux and atmospheric haze. We then use this model, together with non-ideal gas-liquid equilibrium theory to investigate the behavior of the coupled surface-atmosphere system on Titan. We find that a volatile-rich Titan is unstable with respect to a runaway greenhouse—small increases in solar luminosity from the present value can lead to massive increases in surface temperature. If methane has been photolyzed throughout Titan’s history, then this runaway can only be avoided if the photolytic ethane is removed from the surface-atmosphere system.     

AVIATR—Aerial Vehicle for In-situ and Airborne Titan Reconnaissance

We describe a mission concept for a stand-alone Titan airplane mission: Aerial Vehicle for In-situ and Airborne Titan Reconnaissance (AVIATR). With independent delivery and direct-to-Earth communications, AVIATR could contribute to Titan science either alone or as part of a sustained Titan Exploration Program. As a focused mission, AVIATR as we have envisioned it would concentrate on the science that an airplane can do best: exploration of Titan??s global diversity. We focus on surface geology/hydrology and lower-atmospheric structure and dynamics. With a carefully chosen set of seven instruments??2 near-IR cameras, 1 near-IR spectrometer, a RADAR altimeter, an atmospheric structure suite, a haze sensor, and a raindrop detector??AVIATR could accomplish a significant subset of the scientific objectives of the aerial element of flagship studies. The AVIATR spacecraft stack is composed of a Space Vehicle (SV) for cruise, an Entry Vehicle (EV) for entry and descent, and the Air Vehicle (AV) to fly in Titan??s atmosphere. Using an Earth-Jupiter gravity assist trajectory delivers the spacecraft to Titan in 7.5 years, after which the AVIATR AV would operate for a 1-Earth-year nominal mission. We propose a novel ??gravity battery?? climb-then-glide strategy to store energy for optimal use during telecommunications sessions. We would optimize our science by using the flexibility of the airplane platform, generating context data and stereo pairs by flying and banking the AV instead of using gimbaled cameras. AVIATR would climb up to 14?km altitude and descend down to 3.5?km altitude once per Earth day, allowing for repeated atmospheric structure and wind measurements all over the globe. An initial Team-X run at JPL priced the AVIATR mission at FY10 $715M based on the rules stipulated in the recent Discovery announcement of opportunity. Hence we find that a standalone Titan airplane mission can achieve important science building on Cassini??s discoveries and can likely do so within a New Frontiers budget.     

Assessing the role of alkaline soils on the carbon cycle at a playa site

Alkaline soils occupy approximately 5 % of the Earth’s land surface (7 million km), and this may increase due to the global trend towards increasing desertification, yet the extent to which these soils modulate carbon dynamics on regional and global scales is inadequately studied and poorly understood. Railroad Valley (RRV) playa (Nevada, USA) is a semi-arid playa with highly alkaline soils (pH > 10) and no vegetation. The extreme, alkaline environment and absence of vascular vegetation make RRV an ideal site to investigate the role of physiochemical processes of soil-atmosphere CO₂ exchange. Both field and laboratory investigations were conducted. This work shows how the atmospheric CO₂ mixing ratio decreases at nighttime at RRV playa to a value well below the average global background CO₂ concentration. Laboratory investigations using soil samples collected at RRV playa confirmed that CO₂ uptake by RRV playa soils occurs when temperatures are decreased. Both field and laboratory studies suggest that the alkaline RRV soil acts as a CO₂ reservoir during colder periods, such as at nighttime. These results highlight the importance of investigating carbon dynamics in previously understudied environments. Given how little information is available on the CO₂ flux in desert and semi-arid alkaline ecosystems lacking vegetation, our findings draw attention to these environments as becoming increasingly important for carbon fluxes on regional and global scales.     

Drilling in ancient permafrost on Mars for evidence of a second genesis of life

If life ever existed on Mars, a key question is the genetic relationship of that life to life on Earth. To determine if Martian life represents a separate, second genesis of life requires the analysis of organisms, not fossils. Ancient permafrost on Mars represents one potential source of intact, albeit probably dead by radiation, Martian organisms. Strong crustal magnetism in the ancient heavily cratered southern highlands between 60 and 80°S and at about 180°W indicates what may be the oldest, best preserved ice-rich permafrost on Mars. Drilling to depths of 1000 m would reach samples unaffected by possible warming due to cyclic changes in Mars’ obliquity. When drilling into the permafrost to retrieve ancient intact Martian organisms, it is necessary to take special precautions to avoid the possibility of contamination. Earth permafrost provides an analog for Martian permafrost and convenient sites for instrument development and field testing.     

Comparison of the Data-Driven Random Forests Model and a Knowledge-Driven Method for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping: A Case Study for Gold Deposits Around the Huritz Group and Nueltin Suite,Nunavut, Canada

This paper outlines the process taken to create two separate gold prospectivity maps. The first was created using a combination of several knowledge-driven (KD) techniques. The second was created using a relatively new classification method called random forests (RF). The purpose of this study was to examine the results of the RF technique and to compare the results to that of the KD model. The datasets used for the creation of evidence maps for the gold prospectivity mapping include a comprehensive lake sediment geochemical dataset, interpreted geological structures (form lines), mapped and interpreted faults, lithology, topographic features (lakes), and known Au occurrences. The RF method performed well in that the gold prospectivity map created was a better predictor of the known Au occurrences than the KD gold prospectivity map. This was further validated by a fivefold repetition using a subset of the input training areas. Several advantages to the use of RF include (1) the ability to take both continuous and/or categorical data as variable inputs, (2) an internal, unbiased estimation of the mapping error (out-of-bag error) removing the need for a cross-validation of the final outputs to determine accuracy, and (3) the estimation of importance of each input variable. Efficiency of prediction curves illustrates that the RF method performs better than the KD method. The success rate is significantly higher for the RF method than for the KD method.