Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

The Colider and Roosevelt Volcanic rocks (sw amazonian craton): geochemistry and sm-nd isotope characteristics of a silicic large igneous province

The volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations are extensively exposed in the south-central portion of the Amazonian Craton where effusive and pyroclastic rocks have been mapped. Both units, topped by chemical sediments and oceanic facies as rhyolite and andesite lavas, rhyodacite, and porphyritic dacite, with frequent intercalations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits. Whole-rock geochemistry for 55 samples of rhyolitic to andesitic composition suggests the involvement of fertile mantle-derived components with E-MORB to OIB compositions. The analyzed rocks display calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity consistent with generation related to an active continental margin. The whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data from selected felsic volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations yield negative initial ε_Nd values between –3 and –9, indicating the predominantly crustal nature of the parental magmas with early Archean to late Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.5–2.0 Ga) depleted mantle model ages.

     

Impacts of Wildlife on Agriculture: A Spatial-Based Analysis and Economic Assessment for Reducing Damage

Over the last few years, the impacts of wildlife on agriculture have constantly been growing, in particular in areas close to woodland and in hunting ban zones (“refuge effect”). Public administrations have difficulty in meeting the growing requests for crop damage compensation. The development of appropriate measures to control this trend—starting from the understanding of the dynamics concerned—is crucial. The aim of this study was, therefore, to analyze damage at regional scale and define common local actions. In particular, the study involved different steps that define a spatial-based classification of risk levels, integrating statistical methods (principal component analysis and receiver operating characteristic) with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) in a geographic information system (GIS). It turns out that, in the study area, the very high-risk zones affect 8.83% of used agricultural areas; about 97% of them concentrated in the first 400 m from the most suitable habitats. A selected cluster of 11 test areas within these zones allowed us to assess the cost-effectiveness of integrated prevention and control actions (IPCA) with respect to the compensation of the damage. The analysis shows cost of IPCA to be nearly twice the actual cost incurred by the public administration to compensate partially the damage. The comparison with the estimated damage shows the overall economic convenience of the proposed investment with significant differences depending on the areas. Thus, we suggest reaching an “agro-ecological” balance starting from actions on specific areas; if they produce the desired effects, they could be progressively extended to other areas with gradual investments (adaptive management).

     

Low reproductive success for copepods during a bloom of the non‐aldehyde‐producing diatom Cerataulina pelagica in the North Adriatic Sea

Egg production rates and/or hatching success in the copepods Acartia clausi, Calanus helgolandicus and Temora longicornis were negatively affected by a late spring (May–June 2003) phytoplankton bloom in the North Adriatic Sea, dominated mainly by the large diatom Cerataulina pelagica. Highest total concentrations of 3.3·10⁴ cells·ml^?1 were located in the vicinity of the Po River, which also corresponded to the area where the highest numbers of phaeophorbides were measured (0.779, 0.528 and 0.419 μg·l^?1, respectively, compared to an average of the remaining stations of 0.183 ± 0.049 SD), suggesting some grazing on the bloom. Phytoplankton biomass in terms of carbon was dominated by diatoms, representing on average 42% of total phytoplankton carbon and more than 80% at several stations. Cerataulina pelagica, Cyclotella spp., Chaetoceros spp. and small unidentified centric diatoms dominated the diatom community numerically but C. pelagica was by far the dominant diatom in terms of carbon due to its large cell size. This species represented more than 60% of the diatom biomass at nine of the 14 stations sampled, and was absent only at one station, which was the most offshore station sampled during the cruise. Although polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs) were not detected, other oxylipins which are hydroxy and keto derivatives of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids that affect copepod reproduction were found in these samples. Hence, we can attribute the negative impact of diatoms not only to PUAs, as previously believed, but also to these compounds. This is the first direct evidence of the presence of oxylipins other than PUAs in marine blooms dominated by diatoms.     

Magnetic properties of iron-rich oxisols

Four occurrences of highly magnetic soil in Brazil have been analysed with a view to identifying the magnetic minerals and quantifying the soil magnetization. Techniques used include X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence and Mössbauer spectroscopy. This approach leads us to identify several ways that these soils, which have spontaneous magnetization in the range 1_s<35 j/t/kg,="" can="" come="">One soil, which forms on dolerite (19.6 wt% Fe₂O₃), is found to contain fully-oxidized titanomaghemite inherited from the parent rock. This oxide has a canted ferrimagnetic spin structure with _s=36 J/T/kg of sample. The three others, formed on very iron-rich rock (50–90 wt% Fe₂O₃), contain magnetite or maghemite as the magnetic species and in two cases the soil is more magnetic than the parent rock (largely composed of pure hematite).     

Andean evolution at the Guañacos and Chos Malal fold and thrust belts (36°30′–37°s)

The Andes between 36°30′ and 37°S represent a Cretaceous fold and thrust belt strongly reactivated in the late Miocene. Most of the features that absorbed Neogene shortening were already uplifted in the late Cretaceous, as revealed by field mapping and confirmed by previous fission track analysis. This Andean section is formed by two sectors: a western-inner sector generated by the closure of the upper Oligocene-lower Miocene intra-arc Cura Mallín basin between the middle and late Miocene (Guañacos fold and thrust belt), and an eastern-outer sector, where late Triassic-early Jurassic extensional depocenters were exhumed in two discrete phases of contraction, in the latest early Cretaceous and late Miocene to the Present, respectively (Chos Malal fold and thrust belt). Late Miocene deformation has not homogeneously reactivated Cretaceous compressive structures, being minimal south of 37°30′S through the eastern-outer sector (southern continuation of the Chos Malal fold and thrust belt). The reason for such an inhomogeneous deformational evolution seems to be related to the development of a late Miocene shallow subduction regime between 34°30′ and 37°45′S, as it was proposed in previous studies. This shallow subduction zone is evidenced by the eastward expansion of the arc that was accompanied by the eastern displacement of the orogenic front at these latitudes. As a result, the Cretaceous fold and thrust belt were strongly reactivated north of 37°30′S producing the major topographic break along the Southern Central Andes.     

Capturing critical behaviour in soil moisture spatio-temporal dynamics

A physical system is subject to a phase transition process when it shows a discontinuous change of a macroscopic feature of the system under a continuous change of a system’s state variable.     

Shaking‐table tests on reinforced concrete frames with different isolation systems

The effectiveness of seismic isolation in protecting structural and non‐structural elements from damage has been assessed in an extensive programme of shaking‐table tests, carried out on four identical 1/3.3‐scale, two‐dimensional, reinforced concrete (R/C) frames. Four different isolation systems were considered, namely: (i) rubber‐based, (ii) steel‐based, (iii) shape memory alloy (SMA)‐based and (iv) hybrid, i.e. based on both SMA and steel components, isolation systems. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the main results of the experimental tests on base‐isolated models, whose structural response is described through: (i) maximum base displacements; (ii) maximum interstorey drifts; (iii) maximum storey accelerations and (iv) maximum storey shear forces. The evolution of the fundamental frequency of vibration of the R/C frame during the tests is also described. The beneficial effects of using base isolation resulted in no or slight damage, under strong earthquakes, to both structural and non‐structural members, as well as to the internal content of the building. The comparison with the experimental results obtained in shaking‐table tests on similar fixed‐base models emphasizes these positive aspects. Finally, advantages and drawbacks related to the use of each isolation system are discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.