Hierarchical simulation of aquifer heterogeneity: implications of different simulation settings on solute-transport modeling

The fine-scale heterogeneity of porous media affects the large-scale transport of solutes and contaminants in groundwater and it can be reproduced by means of several geostatistical simulation tools. However, including the available geological information in these tools is often cumbersome. A hierarchical simulation procedure based on a binary tree is proposed and tested on two real-world blocks of alluvial sediments, of a few cubic meters volume, that represent small-scale aquifer analogs. The procedure is implemented using the sequential indicator simulation, but it is so general that it can be adapted to various geostatistical simulation tools, improving their capability to incorporate geological information, i.e., the sedimentological and architectural characterization of heterogeneity. When compared with a standard sequential indicator approach on bi-dimensional simulations, in terms of proportions and connectivity indicators, the proposed procedure yields reliable results, closer to the reference observations. Different ensembles of three-dimensional simulations based on different hierarchical sequences are used to perform numerical experiments of conservative solute transport and to obtain ensembles of equivalent pore velocity and dispersion coefficient at the scale length of the blocks (meter). Their statistics are used to estimate the impact of the variability of the transport properties of the simulated blocks on contaminant transport modeled on bigger domains (hectometer). This is investigated with a one-dimensional transport modeling based on the Kolmogorov-Dmitriev theory of branching stochastic processes. Applying the proposed approach with diverse binary trees and different simulation settings provides a great flexibility, which is revealed by the differences in the breakthrough curves.     

Upscaling permeability for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks with the multiple boundary method

Upscaling permeability of grid blocks is crucial for groundwater models. A novel upscaling method for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks is presented. The objective of the study was to compare this method with the commonly used Oda upscaling method and the volume averaging method. First, the multiple boundary method and its computational framework were defined for three-dimensional stochastic fracture networks. Then, the different upscaling methods were compared for a set of rotated fractures, for tortuous fractures, and for two discrete fracture networks. The results computed by the multiple boundary method are comparable with those of the other two methods and fit best the analytical solution for a set of rotated fractures. The errors in flow rate of the equivalent fracture model decrease when using the multiple boundary method. Furthermore, the errors of the equivalent fracture models increase from well-connected fracture networks to poorly connected ones. Finally, the diagonal components of the equivalent permeability tensors tend to follow a normal or log-normal distribution for the well-connected fracture network model with infinite fracture size. By contrast, they exhibit a power-law distribution for the poorly connected fracture network with multiple scale fractures. The study demonstrates the accuracy and the flexibility of the multiple boundary upscaling concept. This makes it attractive for being incorporated into any existing flow-based upscaling procedures, which helps in reducing the uncertainty of groundwater models.     

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

The Colider and Roosevelt Volcanic rocks (sw amazonian craton): geochemistry and sm-nd isotope characteristics of a silicic large igneous province

The volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations are extensively exposed in the south-central portion of the Amazonian Craton where effusive and pyroclastic rocks have been mapped. Both units, topped by chemical sediments and oceanic facies as rhyolite and andesite lavas, rhyodacite, and porphyritic dacite, with frequent intercalations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits. Whole-rock geochemistry for 55 samples of rhyolitic to andesitic composition suggests the involvement of fertile mantle-derived components with E-MORB to OIB compositions. The analyzed rocks display calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity consistent with generation related to an active continental margin. The whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data from selected felsic volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations yield negative initial ε_Nd values between –3 and –9, indicating the predominantly crustal nature of the parental magmas with early Archean to late Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.5–2.0 Ga) depleted mantle model ages.

     

Combined effects of pumped-storage operation and climate change on thermal structure and water quality

Climatic Change - The assessment of ecological impacts of pumped-storage (PS) hydropower plants on the two connected water bodies is usually based on present climatic conditions. However,...     

Impacts of Wildlife on Agriculture: A Spatial-Based Analysis and Economic Assessment for Reducing Damage

Over the last few years, the impacts of wildlife on agriculture have constantly been growing, in particular in areas close to woodland and in hunting ban zones (“refuge effect”). Public administrations have difficulty in meeting the growing requests for crop damage compensation. The development of appropriate measures to control this trend—starting from the understanding of the dynamics concerned—is crucial. The aim of this study was, therefore, to analyze damage at regional scale and define common local actions. In particular, the study involved different steps that define a spatial-based classification of risk levels, integrating statistical methods (principal component analysis and receiver operating characteristic) with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) in a geographic information system (GIS). It turns out that, in the study area, the very high-risk zones affect 8.83% of used agricultural areas; about 97% of them concentrated in the first 400 m from the most suitable habitats. A selected cluster of 11 test areas within these zones allowed us to assess the cost-effectiveness of integrated prevention and control actions (IPCA) with respect to the compensation of the damage. The analysis shows cost of IPCA to be nearly twice the actual cost incurred by the public administration to compensate partially the damage. The comparison with the estimated damage shows the overall economic convenience of the proposed investment with significant differences depending on the areas. Thus, we suggest reaching an “agro-ecological” balance starting from actions on specific areas; if they produce the desired effects, they could be progressively extended to other areas with gradual investments (adaptive management).

     

Low reproductive success for copepods during a bloom of the non‐aldehyde‐producing diatom Cerataulina pelagica in the North Adriatic Sea

Egg production rates and/or hatching success in the copepods Acartia clausi, Calanus helgolandicus and Temora longicornis were negatively affected by a late spring (May–June 2003) phytoplankton bloom in the North Adriatic Sea, dominated mainly by the large diatom Cerataulina pelagica. Highest total concentrations of 3.3·10⁴ cells·ml^?1 were located in the vicinity of the Po River, which also corresponded to the area where the highest numbers of phaeophorbides were measured (0.779, 0.528 and 0.419 μg·l^?1, respectively, compared to an average of the remaining stations of 0.183 ± 0.049 SD), suggesting some grazing on the bloom. Phytoplankton biomass in terms of carbon was dominated by diatoms, representing on average 42% of total phytoplankton carbon and more than 80% at several stations. Cerataulina pelagica, Cyclotella spp., Chaetoceros spp. and small unidentified centric diatoms dominated the diatom community numerically but C. pelagica was by far the dominant diatom in terms of carbon due to its large cell size. This species represented more than 60% of the diatom biomass at nine of the 14 stations sampled, and was absent only at one station, which was the most offshore station sampled during the cruise. Although polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs) were not detected, other oxylipins which are hydroxy and keto derivatives of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids that affect copepod reproduction were found in these samples. Hence, we can attribute the negative impact of diatoms not only to PUAs, as previously believed, but also to these compounds. This is the first direct evidence of the presence of oxylipins other than PUAs in marine blooms dominated by diatoms.     

Microbial photosynthesis in coral reef sediments (Heron Reef, Australia)

We investigated microphytobenthic photosynthesis at four stations in the coral reef sediments at Heron Reef, Australia. The microphytobenthos was dominated by diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria, as indicated by biomarker pigment analysis. Conspicuous algae firmly attached to the sand grains (ca. 100 μm in diameter, surrounded by a hard transparent wall) were rich in peridinin, a marker pigment for dinoflagellates, but also showed a high diversity based on cyanobacterial 16S rDNA gene sequence analysis. Specimens of these algae that were buried below the photic zone exhibited an unexpected stimulation of respiration by light, resulting in an increase of local oxygen concentrations upon darkening. Net photosynthesis of the sediments varied between 1.9 and 8.5 mmol O₂ m⁻² h⁻¹ and was strongly correlated with Chl a content, which lay between 31 and 84 mg m⁻². An estimate based on our spatially limited dataset indicates that the microphytobenthic production for the entire reef is in the order of magnitude of the production estimated for corals. Photosynthesis stimulated calcification at all investigated sites (0.2–1.0 mmol Ca²⁺ m⁻² h⁻¹). The sediments of at least three stations were net calcifying. Sedimentary N₂-fixation rates (measured by acetylene reduction assays at two sites) ranged between 0.9 to 3.9 mmol N₂ m⁻² h⁻¹ and were highest in the light, indicating the importance of heterocystous cyanobacteria. In coral fingers no N₂-fixation was measurable, which stresses the importance of the sediment compartment for reef nitrogen cycling.     

Capture into first-order resonances and long-term stability of pairs of equal-mass planets

Massive planets form within the lifetime of protoplanetary disks, and therefore, they are subject to orbital migration due to planet–disk interactions. When the first planet reaches the inner edge of the disk, its migration stops and consequently the second planet ends up locked in resonance with the first one. We detail how the resonant trapping works comparing semi-analytical formulae and numerical simulations. We restrict to the case of two equal-mass coplanar planets trapped in first-order resonances, but the method can be easily generalized. We first describe the family of resonant stable equilibrium points (zero-amplitude libration orbits) using series expansions up to different orders in eccentricity as well as a non-expanded Hamiltonian. Then we show that during convergent migration the planets evolve along these families of equilibrium points. Eccentricity damping from the disk leads to a final equilibrium configuration that we predict precisely analytically. The fact that observed multi-exoplanetary systems are rarely seen in resonances suggests that in most cases the resonant configurations achieved by migration become unstable after the removal of the protoplanetary disk. Here we probe the stability of the resonances as a function of planetary mass. For this purpose, we fictitiously increase the masses of resonant planets, adiabatically maintaining the low-amplitude libration regime until instability occurs. We discuss two hypotheses for the instability, that of a low-order secondary resonance of the libration frequency with a fast synodic frequency of the system, and that of minimal approach distance between planets. We show that secondary resonances do not seem to impact resonant systems at low amplitude of libration. Resonant systems are more stable than non-resonant ones for a given minimal distance at close encounters, but we show that the latter nevertheless play the decisive role in the destabilization of resonant pairs. We show evidence that as the planetary mass increases and the minimal distance between planets gets smaller in terms of mutual Hill radius, the region of stability around the resonance center shrinks, until the equilibrium point itself becomes unstable.