A crack model of creep processes on deep sections of faults

A crack model in antiplane shear configuration is shown representing creep processes interpreted in terms of 'viscous' deformation of a narrow plastic layer, characterized by inhomogeneous rheological properties, embedded within a homogeneous elastic medium. The evolution in time of slip and stress over the crack plane is studied through a truncated expansion in Chebyshev polynomials, and convergence is proved to be fast in the simple examples considered. Finite-stress solutions are found which are compatible with constitutive relations of elasto-plastic materials and furthermore these allow us to simulate creep propagation and stress transfer between locked and unlocked fault segments. This model provides a simple interpretation of the shallow depth of the seismogenic layer observed in several areas of the world and lends itself to modelling creep processes during either post-seismic rebound or pre-seismic stress buildup. Stress transfer is accomplished mostly by the slow extension of the creeping section. During a seismic cycle it is envisaged that different regimes dominate over deep, intermediate and shallow sections of faults: (i) slow pre-seismic stress build-up accompanied by creep and stress migration toward intermediate depths; (ii) brittle fracture over shallow and intermediate sections of faults; (iii) post-seismic rebound over intermediate and deep sections of faults. The present crack model, while providing finite-stress solutions, allows a better understanding of how stress may accommodate at different depths over a fault plane during a seismic cycle.     

The filament-corona transition region from OSO-VI EUV observations

The transition region between filament and corona is investigated measuring the intensity of six EUV lines above two filaments on the disk observed on September 1 and 2, 1969 by OSO-VI. The comparison between these intensities and those observed on quiet regions shows that there is no difference between the two transition regions.     

The rotation of calcium plages in the years 1967–1970

An analysis of Ca II spectroheliograms obtained at Catania Observatory in the period 1967–1970 shows that plages rotate - in their first four days of lifetime - with a latitudinal differential rotation profile steeper than for older objects.A closer inspection reveals that plages slow down with age in some latitude strips, and accelerate in some others. That makes the profiles of old and young objects highly different from each other. In particular, the empirical laws of solar rotation usually adopted, appear to be inadequate to describe so complex a phenomenon as the rotation of these magnetic features. A close correspondence has been found between the latitudes at which plages accelerate (slow down) and the latitudes of westward (eastward) streams (Howard and LaBonte, 1980).Some implications of these results, in the light of the theory of a direct coupling of magnetic features to deep layers, are discussed.In the years concerned, Ca-plages of whatever age show differential rotation profiles steeper than in other phases of the solar cycle.     

Modal model identification of structures under unmeasured seismic excitations

Techniques developed for structural identification of a structural model are typically based on information regarding the response and the forcing actions. However, in some situations it can be necessary, or simply useful, to refer only to the measured responses. In this paper we describe a technique suitable for identifying the modal model of a spatial frame in the frequency domain when the seismic input is unknown both in time contents and direction. In some previous theoretical works we established that this identification problem has a unique solution when at least three time‐history responses are known. Here numerical techniques are developed which allow the evaluation of the modal quantities in practice. Numerical applications are carried out on plane and spatial framed structures by using a modal model which may be complete, including all the structure's modes, or incomplete, including only the lowest modes. In most cases the obtained results are satisfactory. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The green–blue swing: plasticity of plankton food‐webs in response to coastal oceanographic dynamics

The internal organization of plankton communities plays a key role in biogeochemical cycles and in the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the structure of a marine plankton community (including both unicellular and multicellular organisms) was inferred by applying an ecological network approach to species abundances observed weekly at the long‐term ecological research station MareChiara (LTER‐MC) in the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea, Mediterranean Sea) in the summers of 2002–2009. Two distinct conditions, characterized by different combination of salinity and chlorophyll values, alternated at the site: one influenced by coastal waters, herein named ‘green’, and the other reflecting more offshore conditions, named ‘blue’. The green and blue ‘phases’ showed different keystone biological elements: namely, large diatoms and small‐sized flagellates, respectively. Several correlations amongst species belonging to different trophic groups were found in both phases (connectance ~0.30). In the green phase, several links between phytoplankton and mesozooplankton and within the latter were detected, suggesting matter flow from microbes up to carnivorous zooplankton. A microbial‐loop‐like sub‐web, including mixo‐ and heterotrophic dinoflagellates and ciliates, was present in the green phase, but it was relatively more important in the blue phase. The latter observation suggests a more intense cycling of matter at the microbial trophic level in the blue phase. These results show that different modes of ecological organization can emerge from relatively small changes in the composition of aquatic communities coping with environmental variability. This highlights a significant plasticity in the internal structure of plankton webs, which should be taken into account in predictions of the potential effects of climatic oscillations on aquatic ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles therein.     

Applying neighbourhood classification systems to natural hazards: a case study of Mt Vesuvius

Mt Vesuvius is regarded as one of the most deadly volcanoes on earth. With over 1 million people living on its flanks and in its periphery, there is little doubt that an eruption of sub-Plinian magnitude would be catastrophic to the livelihood and well being of contemporary Neopolitans. Such a large scale eruption would have wide ranging and differential effects on the surrounding population. Whereas previous studies of social vulnerability have focused on individual demographic factors (such as age, income or ethnicity), this research proposes the application of a general neighbourhood classification system to assess natural hazard vulnerability. In this study, Experian’s Mosaic Italy is used to classify and delineate the most vulnerable neighbourhood types around the province of Naples. Among the neighbourhoods considered most at risk, those areas with high proportions of elderly and low income families are deemed particularly vulnerable. With current evacuation plans deemed outdated and poorly communicated to the locals Rolandi (2010), Barberi et al. (2008), this methodology could prove to be a useful input to both town planners and civil protection agencies. A range of statistical measures and geophysical risk boundaries are employed here to assess the different areas of human resilience.     

A BPR approach to hydrogeological risk management

Every year, landslides and floods cause deaths, missing persons, injured people, evacuees, and homeless people. Serious damages to property and pollution are also produced. Lessons learn from landslides and flood disasters recently occurred show that flood and disaster management should be widely improved. This paper deals the problem of hydrogeological risk management from a logistic and a managerial point of view. The hydrological risk management is studied as an industrial process, and it is modeled by the IDEF0 language. The IDEF0 application provides a clear overview of the system and became a structured base for the re-engineering process. For each function of the process, the inputs, outputs, and necessary controls and resources have been identified. The use of the IDEF0 provides a simple and effective tool for the decision-making process. Starting from a realistic and efficient current state model, the process of re-engineering has been implemented. The main aim of the change introduced in the process is to improve the information management that it is a crucial point of the risk management.     

Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.     

Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO₂ by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.

Key policy insights

• Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.

• The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.

• Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.

• Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.

• Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO₂ emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.