Effects of levee cover strength on flood mapping in the case of levee breach due to overtopping

The reliability of a levee system is a crucial factor in flood risk management. In this study we present a probabilistic methodology to assess the effects of levee cover strength on levee failure probability, triggering time, flood propagation and consequent impacts on population and assets. A method for determining fragility curves is used in combination with the results of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate the conditional probability of levee failure in each river section. Then, a levee breach model is applied to calculate the possible flood hydrographs, and for each breach scenario a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to estimate flood hazard (flood extent and timing, maximum water depths) and flood impacts (economic damage and affected population) in the areas at risk along the river reach. We show an application for levee overtopping and different flood scenarios for a 98 km reach of the lower Po River in Italy. The results show how different design solutions for the levee cover can influence the probability of levee failure and the consequent flood scenarios. In particular, good grass cover strength can significantly delay levee failure and reduce maximum flood depths in the flood-prone areas, thus helping the implementation of flood risk management actions.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

GIS-ILA:THE GIS FOR ITALIAN LOGISTICS IN ANTARCTICA

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Downslope flow models of a Bingham liquid: Implications for lava flows

It is widely recognized that lavas behave as Bingham liquids, which are characterized by a yield stress σ and a plastic viscosity η. We consider two models describing downslope flows of a Bingham liquid with different aspect ratios A (= flow height/flow width): model 1 with A 1 and model 2 with A ≈ 1. Sufficiently uphill with respect to the front, such flows can be considered as laminar and locally isothermal. For both models, we obtain analytically the steady-state solution of the Navier-Stokes equations and the constitutive equation for a Bingham liquid. We study the flow height and velocity as functions of flow rate, rheological parameters and ground slope. It is found that such flows remain in the Newtonian regime at low yield stresses (σ 10³dyne/cm²), but the transition to the Bingham regime also depends on flow rate and occurs at higher values of σ for higher flow rates: for instance, a high aspect ratio flow (model 2) is still very close to the Newtonian regime at σ = 10⁴ dyne/cm², if the flow rate is greater than 10⁵ g/s. In the Bingham regime, flow heights are generally greater and flow velocities are smaller than in the Newtonian regime; moreover, flow heights are independent of flow rate, so that a change in flow rate results exclusively in a velocity change. After assuming a specific temperature dependence of σ and η between the solidus and the liquidus temperatures of an ideal Bingham liquid (1000°C and 1200 °C respectively), flow heights and velocities are examined as functions of temperature along the flow. Several effects observed in lava flows are predicted by these models and allow a more quantitative insight into the behaviour of lava flows.     

The Butterfly Diagram Fine Structure

The present work describes the evolution of the sunspot zone in cycles 20, 21, and 22. In each cycle, and in both hemispheres, the equatorward drift of the spot zone “center of mass” results from the alternation of five or six prograde (namely, equatorward) segments, with other stationary or poleward segments. The duration of the stationary/retrograde phases (resulting from averaging data pertaining to the six semicycles examined here) amounts to ≈36% of the total duration of these semicycles. In the prograde phases, the drift rate is almost twice the “traditional” equatorward rate, resulting only from the extreme positions of the spot zone center of mass (at the beginning and at the end of the cycle). If there were no stationary/retrograde phases, the cycle duration would be half the actual one. We conclude that the retrograde phases should not be regarded as accidental; rather, they are essential features of the 11-year cycle.     

Coastal Phytoplankton Do Not Rest in Winter

The climatology and interannual variability of winter phytoplankton was analyzed at the Long Term Ecological Research Station MareChiara (LTER-MC, Gulf of Naples, Mediterranean Sea) using data collected from 1985 to 2006. Background winter chlorophyll values (0.2–0.5 μg chl a dm⁻³) were associated with the dominance of flagellates, dinoflagellates, and coccolithophores. Winter biomass increases (<5.47 μg chl a dm⁻³) were often recorded until 2000, generally in association with low-salinity surface waters (37.3–37.9). These blooms were most often caused by colonial diatoms such as Chaetoceros spp., Thalassiosira spp., and Leptocylindrus danicus. In recent years, we observed more modest and sporadic winter biomass increases, mainly caused by small flagellates and small non-colonial diatoms. The resulting negative chl a trend over the time series was associated with positive surface salinity and negative nutrient trends. Physical and meteorological conditions apparently exert a strict control on winter blooms, hence significant changes in winter productivity can be foreseen under different climatic scenarios.     

The growth and contamination mechanism of the Cana Brava layered mafic-ultramafic complex: new field and geochemical evidences

Mineralogy and Petrology - The Cana Brava complex is the northernmost of three layered complexes outcropping in the Goiás state (central Brasil). New field and geochemical evidences suggest...