SUR LA PUISSANCE DES CRUES AU JAPON A MADAGASCAR ET A LA REUNION

Abstract

Hydrological modelling has faced the problem of ungauged basins for many years: how does one estimate hydrological characteristics for a river for which there are no data? Whatever the kind of model, it needs at least hydroclimatic input data and discharge data for calibration. However, the Yates model does not need any discharge data for calibration: it is a pre-calibrated model from a vegetation—climate classification map. In the specific context of West and Central Africa, where data are often of poor quality and very scarce, it is interesting to compare the performance of such a model with those of calibrated models, and with observed data. For this study, a platform including different semi-global rainfall—runoff models which allow the estimation of monthly runoff at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° was used. The performance of the Yates model is very close to those of calibrated models, so that one can say that this simple model, based simply on a vegetation—climate classification, can be a very useful prediction tool in regions of scarce and unreliable data, such as those of interest to the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) initiative on prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Therefore, this model was applied to a period covering the last 30 years, and to a data set covering the first decades of the 21st century, from a climatic scenario of doubling the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. The results show that, in West Africa, where drought conditions have now prevailed for 35 years, water resources should still be decreasing in the future, following the general decreasing trend of rainfall projected by the climatic scenarios.     

Fossil viruses

Viruses are very much in the news these days, unfortunately, but what about their geological history? Are viruses preserved in the fossil record? If so, how does that happen, and how far back do they go? And what about the roles of viruses in the environment? Are they significant or were they just the nasty invisible parasites we regard them to be today, disrupting life as we know it and leading to the very sad and untimely death of 1000s of people? Or were they both—good and bad? This article explores some of these issues.     

Découverte d'un flux géothermique anormal au puy de Monténard (chaı̂ne des Puys,France) : résultats préliminaires

Preliminary soil-temperature measurements over 16 months indicate an important geothermal flux of at least 0.4 W m^?2 on the summit of a scoria cone in the Cha??ne des Puys (France). This anomaly can be explained by a residual hydrothermal flux that has begun when the maar and the overlying cone were formed around 30 000 years ago. To cite this article: M. Aubert, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

The invertebrate ecology of the Chalk aquifer in England (UK)

The Chalk is an important water supply aquifer, yet ecosystems within it remain poorly understood. Boreholes (198) in seven areas of England (UK) were sampled to determine the importance of the Chalk aquifer as a habitat, and to improve understanding of how species are distributed. Stygobitic macro-invertebrates were remarkably common, and were recorded in 67 % of boreholes in unconcealed Chalk, although they were not recorded in Chalk that is concealed by low-permeability strata and thus likely to be confined. Most species were found in shallow boreholes (<21 m) and boreholes with deep (>50 m) water tables, indicating that the habitat is vertically extensive. Stygobites were present in more boreholes in southern England than northern England (77 % compared to 38 %). Only two species were found in northern England compared to six in southern England, but overall seven of the eight stygobitic macro-invertebrate species found in England were detected in the Chalk. Two species are common in southern England, but absent from northern England despite the presence of a continuous habitat prior to the Devensian glaciation. This suggests that either they did not survive glaciations in the north where glaciers were more extensive, or dispersal rates are slow and they have never colonised northern England. Subsurface ecosystems comprising aquatic macro-invertebrates and meiofauna, as well as the microbial organisms they interact with, are likely to be widespread in the Chalk aquifer. They represent an important contribution to biodiversity, and may influence biogeochemical cycles and provide other ecosystem services.     

Correlation of gravity with the Maquereau Group, southern Gaspe Peninsula, Quebec

Gravity observations at 150 locations in the Port-Daniel and Chandler area, southeastern Gaspé, Quebec, delineate an E-W to ENE-WSW trending elliptical positive Bouguer gravity anomaly with an amplitude of 19 mGal and a residual gravity anomaly of circa 22 mGal. This anomaly correlates closely with the Lower Cambrian and/or Hadrynian Maquereau Group, the steep gradients defining it coinciding with the contact between the group and the surrounding Ordovician and Siluro-Devonian sedimentary rocks. On the basis of its similar geological setting, this gravity anomaly may be compared with the positive Bouguer anomalies observed over the Fleur de, Lys zone to the east of the Baie Verte lineament in Newfoundland. Tridimensional modelling of the gravity data is inconsistent with a serpentinite dome as originally proposed and it suggests that the Maquereau Group represents an upthrusted slice of deep-seated volcanosedimentary sequences. These were originally located on the lower segment of the continental slope; they constituted a topographic high during the final process of the mountain building at the Taconic phase (Middle to Upper Ordovician time). The most probable way of emplacement of the Maquereau block is through a tear-fault running E-W to ESE-WNW in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence west of Cape Breton and resulting from Early Paleozoic continental collision between a Eurafrican continent and a North American continent which had a salient located beneath the site of the modern Gulf. The Maquereau may then have been reactivated with a left-lateral motion accompanied of a rotation about a sub-horizontal axis. The presumed Baie Verte-Brompton line ought to be displaced to the north and the Humber zone is narrowed.     

Double origin of hydrothermal convective flux variations in the Fossa of Vulcano (Italy)

Soil-temperature measurements can provide information on the distribution of degassing fissures, their relationship to the internal structure of the volcano, and the temporal evolution of the system. At Vulcano Island (Italy), heat flux from a <3 km-deep magma body drives a hydrothermal system which extends across the main Fossa crater. This heat flux is also associated with variable magmatic gas flow. A high-density map of soil-temperatures was made in 1996 at a constant depth of 30 cm on the central and southern inner flanks of the Fossa crater. These measurements extended over an area covering about 0.04 km², across which the heat flux is predominantly associated with a shallow boiling aquifer. The map shows that hot zones relate to structures of higher permeability, mainly associated with a fissure system dating from the last eruptive cycle (1888–1890). From 1996 to January 2005, we studied the evolution of the heat flux for the high temperature part of the map, both by repeating our measurements as part of 14 visits, during which temperatures were measured at a constant depth, and using data from permanent stations which allowed soil-temperatures to be continuously measured for selected vertical profiles. These data allowed us to calculate the heat flux, and its variation, with good precision for values lower than about 100 W m⁻², which is generally the case in the study area. Above 100 W m⁻², although the heat flux value is underestimated, its variations are recorded with an error less than 10%. During the period 1996–2004, two increases in the thermal flux were recorded. The first one was related to the seismic crisis of November 1998 which opened existing or new fissures. The second, in November 2004, was probably due to magma migration, and was associated with minor seismic activity.     

Analytical and numerical analysis of pressure drawdown in a poroelastic reservoir with complete overburden effect considered

Starting from an analytical reservoir model that incorporates full interaction with an elastic overburden, a new hybrid mathematical approach is developed by combining two numerical discretization methods. A tabular reservoir (petroleum reservoir or an aquifer) in an infinite or semi-infinite domain is viewed as a macroscopic displacement discontinuity, allowing use of the efficient displacement discontinuity mathematical method to calculate stresses and displacements that arise because of pressure changes. A 3-D finite element method using a poroelastic formulation is used to discretize the reservoir itself. By coupling the displacement discontinuity and finite element methods, a 3-D large-scale poroelastic reservoir can be simulated within an infinite or semi-infinite domain. The numerical model has been verified through comparison to known solutions, and some time-dependent pressure drawdown problems are analyzed. Results indicate that including the complete overburden (reservoir surroundings) response has a significant effect on pressure drawdown in a poroelastic reservoir during pumping, and should be incorporated in appropriate applications such as well test equations and subsidence analyses.     

Environmental public health applications using remotely sensed data

We describe a remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS)-based study that has three objectives: (1) characterize fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), insolation and land surface temperature (LST) using NASA satellite observations, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground-level monitor data and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data products on a national scale; (2) link these data with public health data from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) national cohort study to determine whether these environmental risk factors are related to cognitive decline, stroke and other health outcomes and (3) disseminate the environmental datasets and public health linkage analyses to end users for decision-making through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This study directly addresses a public health focus of the NASA Applied Sciences Program, utilization of Earth Sciences products, by addressing issues of environmental health to enhance public health decision-making.     

Mechanical response of the south flank of kilauea volcano, hawaii, to intrusive events along the rift systems

Increased earthquake activity and compression of the south flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, have been recognized by previous investigators to accompany rift intrusions. We further detail the temporal and spatial changes in earthquake rates and ground strain along the south flank induced by six major rift intrusions which occurred between December 1971 and January 1981. The seismic response of the south flank to individual rift intrusions is immediate; the increased rate of earthquake activity lasts from 1 to 4 weeks. Horizontal strain measurements indicate that compression of the south flank usually accompanies rift intrusions and eruptions. Emplacement of an intrusion at a depth greater than about 4 km, such as the June 1982 southwest rift intrusion, however, results in a slight extension of the subaerial portion of the south flank.Horizontal strain measurements along the south flank are used to locate the January 1983 east-rift intrusion, which resulted in eruptive activity. The intrusion is modeled as a vertical rectangular sheet with constant displacement perpendicular to the plane of the sheet. This model suggests that the intrusive body that compressed the south flank in January 1983 extended from the surface to about 2.4 km depth, and was aligned along a strike of N66°E. The intrusion is approximately 11 km in length, extended beyond the January 1983 eruptive fissures, which are 8 km in length and is contained within the 14-km-long region of shallow rift earthquakes.