Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.     

Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity

Abstract

The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478.     

Formation and evolution of elliptical galaxies and QSO activity

We present the results of a numerical code that combines multi-zone chemical evolution with 1D hydrodynamics to follow in detail the evolution and radial behaviour of gas and stars during the formation of elliptical galaxies. We use the model to explore the links between the evolution and formation of elliptical galaxies and QSO activity. The knowledge of the radial gas flows in the galaxy allows us to trace metallicity gradients, and, in particular, the formation of a high-metallicity core in ellipticals. The high-metallicity core is formed soon enough to explain the metal abundances inferred in high-redshift quasars. The star formation rate and the subsequent feedback regulate the episodes of wind, outflow and cooling flow, thus affecting the recycling of the gas and the chemical enrichment of the intergalactic medium. The evolution of the galaxy shows several stages, some of which are characterized by a complex flow pattern, with inflow in some regions and outflow in other regions. All models, however, exhibit during their late evolution a galactic wind at the outer boundary and, during their early evolution, an inflow towards the galactic nucleus. The characteristics of the inner inflow could explain the bolometric luminosity of a quasar lodged at the galactic centre as well as the evolution of the optical luminosity of quasars.     

Modelling magnetization processes in single-and multi-domain rock samples using the preisach diagram

Summary The paper presents the results of identifying a model of the Preisach type for haematite grains of the single-domain as well as multi-domain size. Due to the phenomenological conception of the model, the relations between the parameters of the model and actual parameters are very complex, however, impressive accuracy and stability of the modified model indicate the need to resume studies of this problem. The model parameters also confirm the adequate properties of the vibrating-sample magnetometr (VSM) used and developed in our laboratories.     

Repeat Ground Track Orbits of the Earth Tesseral Problem as Bifurcations of the Equatorial Family of Periodic Orbits

Orbits repeating their ground track on the surface of the earth are found to be members of periodic-orbit families (in a synodic frame) of the tesseral problem of the Earth artificial satellite. Families of repeat ground track orbits appear as vertical bifurcations of the equatorial family of periodic orbits, and they evolve from retrograde to direct motion throughout the 180 degrees of inclination. These bifurcations are always close to the resonances of the Earth's rotation rate and the mean motion of the orbiter.     

On the Centre Manifold of Collinear Points in the Planar Three-Body Problem

We study the existence of invariant tori in a neighbourhood of the collinear equilibrium points of the planar three-body problem. To this end some properties of the normal form of the Hamiltonian reduced to the 4D central manifold are proved. Using this normal form, we show that the nondegeneracy conditions of KAM theorem are satisfied for all positive masses, including the 2:1 resonance case. The evaluation of the conditions is done numerically.     

X-ray,Hα, and radio observations of the two-ribbon flare of 16 May, 1981

The paper is a contribution to the study of two-ribbon flares. A variety of observational material, i.e. Hα pictures, radio spectrum in the frequency band of 150–1000 MHz, radio map at 6 cm, fluxes at other frequencies, magnetograms and X-ray flux in a broad energy interval, enabled us to study the development of the 16 May, 1981 flare. The onset of the flare could be described by the model of Van Tend and Kuperus. A diminishing of the magnetic shear during the activation of the filament was observed. From radio and X-ray data it was found that pulsed acceleration took place in the region under the rising filament, the electrons propagating in a limited region both upwards to greater heights and downwards into the footpoints. Internal oscillations of the filament were observed. A manifestation of the primary process of interplanetary shock-wave generation was found. The 6 cm radio sources could be localized in the footpoints of magnetic loops.     

New doubly-symmetric families of comet-like periodic orbits in the spatial restricted (N + 1)-body problem

For any positive integer N ≥ 2 we prove the existence of a new family of periodic solutions for the spatial restricted (N +1)-body problem. In these solutions the infinitesimal particle is very far from the primaries. They have large inclinations and some symmetries. In fact we extend results of Howison and Meyer (J. Diff. Equ. 163:174–197, 2000) from N = 2 to any positive integer N ≥ 2.