Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year’s El Niño: interdecadal robustness

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981–2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872–2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 50 % of ENSO peak variance 14 months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Niño and La Niña events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD–ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean.     

Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones: climatology and processes

This study presents the first multidecadal and coupled regional simulation of cyclonic activity in the South Pacific. The long-term integration of state-of the art models provides reliable statistics, missing in usual event studies, of air–sea coupling processes controlling tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The coupling effect is analyzed through comparison of the coupled model with a companion forced experiment. Cyclogenesis patterns in the coupled model are closer to observations with reduced cyclogenesis in the Coral Sea. This provides novel evidence of air–sea coupling impacting not only intensity but also spatial cyclogenesis distribution. Storm-induced cooling and consequent negative feedback is stronger for regions of shallow mixed layers and thin or absent barrier layers as in the Coral Sea. The statistical effect of oceanic mesoscale eddies on TC intensity (crossing over them 20 % of the time) is also evidenced. Anticyclonic eddies provide an insulating effect against storm-induced upwelling and mixing and appear to reduce sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. Cyclonic eddies on the contrary tend to promote strong cooling, particularly through storm-induced upwelling. Air–sea coupling is shown to have a significant role on the intensification process but the sensitivity of TCs to SST cooling is nonlinear and generally lower than predicted by thermodynamic theories: about 15 rather than over 30 hPa °C^?1 and only for strong cooling. The reason is that the cooling effect is not instantaneous but accumulated over time within the TC inner-core. These results thus contradict the classical evaporation-wind feedback process as being essential to intensification and rather emphasize the role of macro-scale dynamics.     

Unprecedented recent warming rate and temperature variability over the east Tibetan Plateau inferred from Alpine treeline dendrochronology

Climate Dynamics - Despite instrumental records showing recent large temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), only a few tree-ring temperature reconstructions do capture this warming trend....     

What role for climate negotiations on technology transfer?

Little progress has been made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992. Yet the diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies to developing countries (non-Annex I) has increased dramatically over the last twenty years. The shift has mostly concerned emerging economies, which are now reasonably well connected to international technology flows. This is good news, as the bulk of emissions increases are expected to take place in these countries in the near future. In contrast, the least developed countries still appear to be excluded from international technology flows, mostly because of their negligible participation in the recent economic globalization. This article focuses on the policy implications of the contribution of climate negotiations to international technology diffusion.

Policy relevance

The discrepancy between the small amount of progress made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992 and the steady increase in the international diffusion of climate mitigation technologies leads to the perhaps controversial view that the diffusion of climate mitigation technologies does not need strong international coordination over technology issues under the UNFCCC. However, climate negotiations can play a key role in stimulating the demand for low-carbon technologies by setting ambitious emission reductions targets and policies.     

Behaviour of colloidal trace metals (Cu, Pb and Cd) in estuarine waters: An approach using frontal ultrafiltration (UF) and stripping chronopotentiometric methods (SCP)

The frontal cascade ultrafiltration (UF) technique in conjunction with stripping chronopotentiometry (SCP) has been evaluated for determining the colloidal distribution of Cu, Pb and Cd in estuarine waters. Metallic concentrations in seven size fractions (0.45 μm–0.22 μm; 0.22 μm–300 kDa; 300–50 kDa; 50–30 kDa; 30–10 kDa; 10–5 kDa; <5 kDa) were determined with the aim to investigate their changes along the salinity gradient of the Penzé system (NW France). These data, completed by analysis of the total dissolved metals at 10 stations over the whole freshwater–seawater mixing zone, provided some insights in the removal and addition processes that affect Cu, Pb and Cd in estuaries.     

Improving estuarine net flux estimates for dissolved cadmium export at the annual timescale: Application to the Gironde Estuary

Dissolved Cd (Cd_D) concentrations along the salinity gradient were measured in surface water of the Gironde Estuary during 15 cruises (2001–2007), covering a wide range of contrasting situations in terms of hydrology, turbidity and season. During all situations dissolved Cd concentrations displayed maximum values in the mid-salinity range, reflecting Cd addition by chloride-induced desorption and complexation. The daily net Cd_D fluxes from the Gironde Estuary to the coastal ocean were estimated using Boyle's method. Extrapolating Cd_D concentrations in the high salinity range to the freshwater end member using a theoretical dilution line produced 15 theoretical Cd concentrations (Cd_D⁰), each representative of one distinct situation. The obtained Cd_D⁰ concentrations were relatively similar (201 ± 28 ng L⁻¹) when freshwater discharge Q was >500 m³ s⁻¹ (508 ≤ Q ≤ 2600 m³ s⁻¹), but were highly variable (340 ± 80 ng L⁻¹; 247–490 ng L⁻¹) for low discharge situations (169 ≤ Q ≤ 368 m³ s⁻¹). The respective daily Cd_D net fluxes were 5–39 kg day⁻¹, mainly depending on freshwater discharge. As this observation invalidates the existing method of estimating annual Cd_D net fluxes, we proposed an empirical model, using representative Cd_D⁰ values and daily freshwater discharges for the 2001–2007 period. Subsequent integration produced reliable Cd_D net flux estimates for the Gironde Estuary at the annual timescale that ranged between 3.8–5.0 t a⁻¹ in 2005 and 6.0–7.2 t a⁻¹ in 2004, depending on freshwater discharge. Comparing Cd_D net fluxes with the incoming Cd_D fluxes suggested that the annual net Cd_D addition in the Gironde Estuary ranged from 3.5 to 6.7 t a⁻¹, without any clear temporal trend during the past seven years. The annual Cd_D net fluxes did not show a clearly decreasing trend in spite of an overall decrease by a factor 6 in Cd gross fluxes during the past decade. Furthermore, in six years out of seven (except 2003), the annual Cd_D net fluxes even exceeded river borne total (dissolved + particulate) gross Cd fluxes into the estuary. These observations were attributed to progressive Cd desorption from both suspended particles and bottom sediment during various sedimentation–resuspension cycles induced by tidal currents and/or continuous dredging (navigation channel) and diverse intra-estuarine sources (wet deposition, urban sources, and agriculture). Provided that gross fluxes remain stable over time, dissolved Cd exportation from the Gironde Estuary to the coastal ocean may remain at the present level for the coming decade and the estuarine sedimentary Cd stock is forecast to decrease slowly.     

Speciation of dissolved copper and cadmium in the Loire estuary and over the North Biscay continental shelf in spring

Dissolved cadmium and copper species were measured in the Loire estuary and the North Biscay Bay continental shelf (France) in spring 2002. Metal behaviours along the salinity gradient, metal fluxes from the Loire system and surface distributions on the continental shelf were described and compared with the ones obtained at a period of higher discharge (i.e., winter 2001). Vertical distributions at different stations were also examined with the aim to assess whether the Loire inputs affect the Cu and Cd speciation over the continental shelf. In the Loire estuary, different metal behaviours were observed from winter. Cu and its various species mostly followed a theoretical dilution line whereas a Cd addition composed of chloro- and organic complexes was observed. According to our estimations, the Cu flux was composed, as in winter, of 40% hydrophobic organic complexes. On the other hand, Cd organic complexes accounted for less in the total dissolved metal flux than they did in winter (55 and 78% for spring and winter, respectively). On the continental shelf, a C₁₈Cu-to-TDCu ratio of 40% was observed in the stratified area under Loire influence. For Cd, the organic fraction was relatively important in the surface waters near the mouth of the estuary and decreased deeper and seaward. Thus, the Cu and Cd speciation on the North Biscay Bay continental shelf are firstly determined by the extent of the estuarine plume. Beyond the estuarine influence, biological processes appeared to be the origin of the observed variations.