Reaching a climate agreement: compensating for energy market effects of climate policy

Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfare implications of different regimes and to focus on a ‘fair’ distribution of resulting costs. In this article, the computable general equilibrium model DART is used to analyse the driving forces of welfare implications in different scenarios in line with the 2?°C target. These include two regimes that are often presumed to be ‘fair’, namely a harmonized international carbon tax and a cap and trade system based on the convergence of per capita emissions rights, and also an ‘equal loss’ scenario where welfare losses relative to a business-as-usual scenario are equal for all major world regions. The main finding is that indirect energy market effects are a major driver of welfare effects and that the ‘equal loss’ scenario would thus require large transfer payments to energy exporters to compensate for welfare losses from lower world energy demand and prices.

Policy relevance

A successful future climate regime requires ‘fair’ burden sharing. Many proposed regimes start from ethical considerations to derive an allocation of emissions reduction requirements or emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme. Yet, countries also consider the expected economic costs of a regime that are also driven by other factors besides allowance allocation. Indeed, in simplified lab experiments, successful groups are characterized by sharing costs proportional to wealth. This article shows that the major drivers of welfare effects are reduced demand for fossil energy and reduced fossil fuel prices, which implies that (1) what is often presumed to be a fair allocation of emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme leads to a very uneven distribution of economic costs and (2) aiming for equal relative losses for all regions requires large compensation to fossil fuel exporters, as argued, for example, by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).     

ASSURE: a model for the simulation of urban expansion and intra-urban social segregation

Numerous cities in developing regions worldwide are expanding at a tremendous rate. This requires adequate strategies to address the needs of these growing cities with diverse populations. Nonetheless, the development of urban policies is often hampered by the lack of reliable data or insight in the socio-spatial dynamics of this urban expansion. This paper therefore presents ASSURE, a spatially and temporally explicit model that can simulate urban growth and intra-urban social segregation, taking into account alternative policy strategies and expected social dynamics. The model has a flexible structure that allows incorporating specific city conditions that influence residential decision-making and adapting the simulation to the data available. This, in combination with the transparent model structure, makes ASSURE a potentially valuable decision support tool for urban planning. The potential is demonstrated with an example where the urban growth of and social segregation in Kampala (Uganda) is simulated based on (semi-)quantitative and qualitative data for ca. 800 households collected through interviews. The results of the simulations show that depending on the scenario, the spatial segregation and accessibility problems will evolve highly differently.     

Aggradation and carbonate accumulation of Holocene Norwegian cold‐water coral reefs

Cold‐water coral ecosystems present common carbonate factories along the Atlantic continental margins, where they can form large reef structures. There is increasing knowledge on their ecology, molecular genetics, environmental controls and threats available. However, information on their carbo‐nate production and accumulation is still very limited, even though this information is essential for their evaluation as carbonate sinks. The aim of this study is to provide high‐resolution reef aggradation and carbonate accumulation rates for Norwegian cold‐water coral reefs from various settings (sunds, inner shelf and shelf margin). Furthermore, it introduces a new approach for the evaluation of the cold‐water coral preservation within cold‐water coral deposits by computed tomography analysis. This approach allows the differentiation of various kinds of cold‐water coral deposits by their macrofossil clast size and orientation signature. The obtained results suggest that preservation of cold‐water coral frameworks in living position is favoured by high reef aggradation rates, while preservation of coral rubble prevails by moderate aggradation rates. A high degree of macrofossil fragmentation indicates condensed intervals or unconformities. The observed aggradation rates with up to 1500 cm kyr^?1 exhibit the highest rates from cold‐water coral reefs so far. Reef aggradation within the studied cores was restricted to the Early and Late Holocene. Available datings of Norwegian cold‐water corals support this age pattern for other fjords while, on the shelf, cold‐water coral ages are reported additionally from the early Middle Holocene. The obtained mean carbonate accumulation rates of up to 103 g cm^?2 kyr^?1 exceed previous estimates of cold‐water coral reefs by a factor of two to three and by almost one order of magnitude to adjacent sedimentary environments (shelf, slope and deep sea). Only fjord basins locally exhibit carbonate accumulation rates in the range of the cold‐water coral reefs. Furthermore, cold‐water coral reef carbonate accumulation rates are in the range of tropical reef carbonate accumulation rates. These results clearly suggest the importance of cold‐water coral reefs as local, maybe regional to global, carbonate sinks.     

Ambiguity in the altitude effect of precipitation isotopes for estimating groundwater recharge elevation and paleoelevation reconstruction in the leeward side of a mountain

The altitude effect of isotopes in precipitation is not as significant on the leeward side of a mountain as it is on the windward side, which makes it difficult to use isotopes at leeward sites, especially if estimating elevation of groundwater recharge or reconstructing paleoelevations. Samples of precipitation were taken at three stations with different elevations—2,306–3,243 m above mean sea level (asl)—on the leeward side of the Meili Snow Mountains on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau from August 2017 to July 2018. The isotope vs. altitude gradients were calculated based on two adjacent stations at the daily, monthly, and annual scales. Most of the gradients are beyond the global ranges of –0.5 to –0.1‰ per 100 m for δ¹⁸O and –5 to –1‰ per 100 m for δ²H, and some of the gradients are even positive. Local processes of sub-cloud evaporation and mixing with recycled moisture are identified for the ambiguous altitude effect, while regional atmospheric circulation processes dominate the major patterns of stable isotope variation at the three stations. The groundwater recharge elevation is estimated to be in a very large range, 2,562–6,321 m asl, which could be caused by the differences in isotope vs. altitude gradient in the studied catchments. Considering the complex atmospheric processes affecting precipitation isotopes, sampling of event-based/monthly precipitation at more than two altitudes for at least one complete hydrological year is a minimum requirement to establish a reasonable isotope vs. altitude gradient.

     

Sub‐arctic Holocene climatic and oceanographic variability in Stjernsund,northern Norway: evidence from benthic foraminifera and stable isotopes

A high‐resolution record, covering 9.3–0.2 ka BP, from the sub‐arctic Stjernsund (70°N) was studied for benthic foraminiferal faunas and stable isotopes, revealing three informally named main phases during the Holocene. The Early‐ to Mid‐Holocene (9.3–5.0 ka BP) was characterized by the strong influence of the North Atlantic Current (NAC), which prevented the reflection of the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) in the bottom‐water temperature. During the Mid‐Holocene Transition (5.0–2.5 ka BP), a turnover of benthic foraminiferal faunas occurred, Atlantic Water species decreased while Arctic‐Polar species increased, and the oxygen isotope record showed larger fluctuations. Those variations correspond to a period of global climate change, to spatially more heterogeneous benthic foraminiferal faunas in the Nordic Seas region, and to regionally diverging terrestrial temperatures. The Cool Late Holocene (2.5–0.2 ka BP) was characterized by increased abundances of Arctic‐Polar species and a steady cooling trend reflected in the oxygen isotopes. In this period, our record differs considerably from those on the SW Barents Sea shelf and locations farther south. Therefore, we argue that regional atmospheric cooling triggered the late Holocene cooling trend. Several cold episodes centred at ～8.3, ～7.8, ～6.5, ～4.9, ～3.9 and ～3.3 ka BP were identified from the benthic foraminiferal faunas and the δ¹⁸O record, which correlated with marine and atmospherically driven proxy records. This suggests that short‐term cold events may result from reduced heat advection via the NAC or from colder air temperatures.     

Fully coupled simulation of fluid injection into geomaterials with focus on nonlinear near‐well behavior

An important part of our global wealth depends on the extraction of fluids from porous media. More recently, sequestration of carbon dioxide (rmCO₂) into deep geological layers as a possible measure to mitigate climate change has increased interest in fluid injection into porous media. Sophisticated numerical models play an important role in managing the uncertainties related to the subsurface, and finite element methods are the most versatile tool allowing the coupling of fluid flow, geomechanics and other physical processes. This paper gives insight into two important aspects of fluid injection/extraction in porous media: the correct modeling of the bore hole through specification of initial stresses, which together with a fully coupled strategy allows simulation of nonlinear poromechanics, and the imposition of appropriate boundary conditions that allow the controlled injection/extraction of a total specified amount of fluid in an anisotropic porous medium, without exceeding a safe operating pressure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Orbit and origin of the LL7 chondrite Dishchii'bikoh (Arizona)

The trajectory and orbit of the LL7 ordinary chondrite Dishchii'bikoh are derived from low‐light video observations of a fireball first detected at 10:56:26 UTC on June 2, 2016. Results show a relatively steep ~21° inclined orbit and a short 1.13 AU semimajor axis. Following entry in Earth's atmosphere, the meteor luminosity oscillated corresponding to a meteoroid spin rate of 2.28 ± 0.02 rotations per second. A large fragment broke off at 44 km altitude. Further down, mass was lost to dust during flares at altitudes of 34, 29, and 25 km. Surviving meteorites were detected by Doppler weather radar and several small 0.9–29 g meteorites were recovered under the radar reflection footprint. Based on cosmogenic radionuclides and ground‐based radiometric observations, the Dishchii'bikoh meteoroid was 80 ± 20 cm in diameter assuming the density was 3.5 g/cm³. The meteoroid's collisional history confirms that the unusual petrologic class of LL7 does not require a different parent body than three previously observed LL chondrite falls. Dishchii'bikoh was ejected 11 Ma ago from parent body material that has a 4471 ± 6 Ma U‐Pb age, the same as that of Chelyabinsk (4452 ± 21 Ma). The distribution of the four known pre‐impact LL chondrite orbits is best matched by dynamical modeling if the source of LL chondrites is in the inner asteroid belt in a low inclined orbit, with the highly inclined Dishchii'bikoh being the result of interactions with Earth before impacting.     

Annama H chondrite—Mineralogy,physical properties,cosmic ray exposure,and parent body history

The fall of the Annama meteorite occurred early morning (local time) on April 19, 2014 on the Kola Peninsula (Russia). Based on mineralogy and physical properties, Annama is a typical H chondrite. It has a high Ar‐Ar age of 4.4 Ga. Its cosmic ray exposure history is atypical as it is not part of the large group of H chondrites with a prominent 7–8 Ma peak in the exposure age histograms. Instead, its exposure age is within uncertainty of a smaller peak at 30 ± 4 Ma. The results from short‐lived radionuclides are compatible with an atmospheric pre‐entry radius of 30–40 cm. However, based on noble gas and cosmogenic radionuclide data, Annama must have been part of a larger body (radius >65 cm) for a large part of its cosmic ray exposure history. The ¹⁰Be concentration indicates a recent (3–5 Ma) breakup which may be responsible for the Annama parent body size reduction to 30–35 cm pre‐entry radius.