Cluster analysis applied to regional geochemical data: Problems and possibilities

Cluster analysis can be used to group samples and to develop ideas about the multivariate geochemistry of the data set at hand. Due to the complex nature of regional geochemical data (neither normal nor log-normal, strongly skewed, often multi-modal data distributions, data closure), cluster analysis results often strongly depend on the preparation of the data (e.g. choice of the transformation) and on the clustering algorithm selected. Different variants of cluster analysis can lead to surprisingly different cluster centroids, cluster sizes and classifications even when using exactly the same input data. Cluster analysis should not be misused as a statistical “proof” of certain relationships in the data. The use of cluster analysis as an exploratory data analysis tool requires a powerful program system to test different data preparation, processing and clustering methods, including the ability to present the results in a number of easy to grasp graphics. Such a tool has been developed as a package for the R statistical software. Two example data sets from geochemistry are used to demonstrate how the results change with different data preparation and clustering methods. A data set from S-Norway with a known number of clusters and cluster membership is used to test the performance of different clustering and data preparation techniques. For a complex data set from the Kola Peninsula, cluster analysis is applied to explore regional data structures.     

ASSURE: a model for the simulation of urban expansion and intra-urban social segregation

Numerous cities in developing regions worldwide are expanding at a tremendous rate. This requires adequate strategies to address the needs of these growing cities with diverse populations. Nonetheless, the development of urban policies is often hampered by the lack of reliable data or insight in the socio-spatial dynamics of this urban expansion. This paper therefore presents ASSURE, a spatially and temporally explicit model that can simulate urban growth and intra-urban social segregation, taking into account alternative policy strategies and expected social dynamics. The model has a flexible structure that allows incorporating specific city conditions that influence residential decision-making and adapting the simulation to the data available. This, in combination with the transparent model structure, makes ASSURE a potentially valuable decision support tool for urban planning. The potential is demonstrated with an example where the urban growth of and social segregation in Kampala (Uganda) is simulated based on (semi-)quantitative and qualitative data for ca. 800 households collected through interviews. The results of the simulations show that depending on the scenario, the spatial segregation and accessibility problems will evolve highly differently.     

Gas migration through Opouawe Bank at the Hikurangi margin offshore New Zealand

This study presents 2D seismic reflection data, seismic velocity analysis, as well as geochemical and isotopic porewater compositions from Opouawe Bank on New Zealand’s Hikurangi subduction margin, providing evidence for essentially pure methane gas seepage. The combination of geochemical information and seismic reflection images is an effective way to investigate the nature of gas migration beneath the seafloor, and to distinguish between water advection and gas ascent. The maximum source depth of the methane that migrates to the seep sites on Opouawe Bank is 1,500–2,100 m below seafloor, generated by low-temperature degradation of organic matter via microbial CO₂ reduction. Seismic velocity analysis enabled identifying a zone of gas accumulation underneath the base of gas hydrate stability (BGHS) below the bank. Besides structurally controlled gas migration along conduits, gas migration also takes place along dipping strata across the BGHS. Gas migration on Opouawe Bank is influenced by anticlinal focusing and by several focusing levels within the gas hydrate stability zone.     

Reaching a climate agreement: compensating for energy market effects of climate policy

Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfare implications of different regimes and to focus on a ‘fair’ distribution of resulting costs. In this article, the computable general equilibrium model DART is used to analyse the driving forces of welfare implications in different scenarios in line with the 2?°C target. These include two regimes that are often presumed to be ‘fair’, namely a harmonized international carbon tax and a cap and trade system based on the convergence of per capita emissions rights, and also an ‘equal loss’ scenario where welfare losses relative to a business-as-usual scenario are equal for all major world regions. The main finding is that indirect energy market effects are a major driver of welfare effects and that the ‘equal loss’ scenario would thus require large transfer payments to energy exporters to compensate for welfare losses from lower world energy demand and prices.

Policy relevance

A successful future climate regime requires ‘fair’ burden sharing. Many proposed regimes start from ethical considerations to derive an allocation of emissions reduction requirements or emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme. Yet, countries also consider the expected economic costs of a regime that are also driven by other factors besides allowance allocation. Indeed, in simplified lab experiments, successful groups are characterized by sharing costs proportional to wealth. This article shows that the major drivers of welfare effects are reduced demand for fossil energy and reduced fossil fuel prices, which implies that (1) what is often presumed to be a fair allocation of emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme leads to a very uneven distribution of economic costs and (2) aiming for equal relative losses for all regions requires large compensation to fossil fuel exporters, as argued, for example, by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).     

Simultaneity as a challenge for development

Societies in the Global South are simultaneously confronted with various challenges that societies in the Global North faced over a long period of time. From the beginning of the 18th century the Global North has faced challenges in line with its industrialization and modernization processes including population growth with the necessity to feed that growing population, rapid urbanization or infrastructure development. Solving these challenges during past centuries has led to highly developed societies but produced new threats: environmental degradation and climate change—features of Beck’s ‘reflexive modernity’. Today, societies in the Global South not only face similar challenges such as population growth, malnutrition or lacking infrastructure, but also the consequences of the human-made environmental change and its related risks. Change in the Global South has reached a previously unseen pace and notable simultaneity. This paper aims to operationalise and visualise the challenge of simultaneity. By identifying six indicators for three main issues, the extent of simultaneity will be analysed using the examples of Kenya, India, Brazil and Germany. The findings show that simultaneity is a key challenge for current social, economic and ecological transformations in the Global South.     

Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin,Australia

Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative ‘make good’ requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.     

Social integration matters: factors influencing natural hazard risk preparedness—a survey of Swiss households

Natural Hazards - Building a culture of risk is an essential objective within the integrated risk management paradigm. Challenges arise both due to increasing damage from natural hazards and the...     

Sub‐arctic Holocene climatic and oceanographic variability in Stjernsund,northern Norway: evidence from benthic foraminifera and stable isotopes

A high‐resolution record, covering 9.3–0.2 ka BP, from the sub‐arctic Stjernsund (70°N) was studied for benthic foraminiferal faunas and stable isotopes, revealing three informally named main phases during the Holocene. The Early‐ to Mid‐Holocene (9.3–5.0 ka BP) was characterized by the strong influence of the North Atlantic Current (NAC), which prevented the reflection of the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) in the bottom‐water temperature. During the Mid‐Holocene Transition (5.0–2.5 ka BP), a turnover of benthic foraminiferal faunas occurred, Atlantic Water species decreased while Arctic‐Polar species increased, and the oxygen isotope record showed larger fluctuations. Those variations correspond to a period of global climate change, to spatially more heterogeneous benthic foraminiferal faunas in the Nordic Seas region, and to regionally diverging terrestrial temperatures. The Cool Late Holocene (2.5–0.2 ka BP) was characterized by increased abundances of Arctic‐Polar species and a steady cooling trend reflected in the oxygen isotopes. In this period, our record differs considerably from those on the SW Barents Sea shelf and locations farther south. Therefore, we argue that regional atmospheric cooling triggered the late Holocene cooling trend. Several cold episodes centred at ～8.3, ～7.8, ～6.5, ～4.9, ～3.9 and ～3.3 ka BP were identified from the benthic foraminiferal faunas and the δ¹⁸O record, which correlated with marine and atmospherically driven proxy records. This suggests that short‐term cold events may result from reduced heat advection via the NAC or from colder air temperatures.     

Fully coupled simulation of fluid injection into geomaterials with focus on nonlinear near‐well behavior

An important part of our global wealth depends on the extraction of fluids from porous media. More recently, sequestration of carbon dioxide (rmCO₂) into deep geological layers as a possible measure to mitigate climate change has increased interest in fluid injection into porous media. Sophisticated numerical models play an important role in managing the uncertainties related to the subsurface, and finite element methods are the most versatile tool allowing the coupling of fluid flow, geomechanics and other physical processes. This paper gives insight into two important aspects of fluid injection/extraction in porous media: the correct modeling of the bore hole through specification of initial stresses, which together with a fully coupled strategy allows simulation of nonlinear poromechanics, and the imposition of appropriate boundary conditions that allow the controlled injection/extraction of a total specified amount of fluid in an anisotropic porous medium, without exceeding a safe operating pressure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.