Effects of cluster galaxies on arc statistics

We present the results of a set of numerical simulations evaluating the effect of cluster galaxies on arc statistics.
We perform a first set of gravitational lensing simulations using three independent projections for each of nine different galaxy clusters obtained from N -body simulations. The simulated clusters consist of dark matter only. We add a population of galaxies to each cluster, mimicking the observed luminosity function and the spatial galaxy distribution, and repeat the lensing simulations including the effects of cluster galaxies, which themselves act as individual lenses. Each galaxy is represented by a spherical Navarro, Frenk & White density profile.
We consider the statistical distributions of the properties of the gravitational arcs produced by our clusters with and without galaxies. We find that the cluster galaxies do not introduce perturbations strong enough to significantly change the number of arcs and the distributions of lengths, widths, curvature radii and length-to-width ratios of long arcs. We find some changes to the distribution of short-arc properties in the presence of cluster galaxies. The differences appear in the distribution of curvature radii for arc lengths smaller than 12 arcsec, while the distributions of lengths, widths and length-to-width ratios are significantly changed only for arcs shorter than 4 arcsec.     

First detection of glacial meltwater signature in tree‐ring δ18O: Reconstructing past major glacier runoff events at Lago Verde (Miage Glacier,Italy)

With the aim of evaluating the influence of glacial meltwater signature on tree‐ring stable isotopes, we analysed δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C in the tree rings of Larix decidua Mill. specimens growing in the area of an ice‐contact lake (Lago Verde, at Miage Glacier, European Alps). Additionally, we analysed δ¹⁸O in the glacial meltwater of the lake and of the glacier stream and compared it with the δ¹⁸O of precipitation predicted by a spatial model. We found that tree‐ring cellulose of trees fed by glacial meltwaters (LVW site) is significantly more depleted in δ¹⁸O than at a control site LVM (?0.91‰) fed only by precipitation, thus reflecting the measured higher depletion of glacial meltwaters with respect to local precipitation. δ¹³C values did not show significant differences in mean values between the two sites but an anomalous correlation with summer temperature was found at the LVW site, probably due to the different responses of trees stomatal conductance. Over the 30‐year period of analysis, four years at LVW (1992, 1995, 2003 and 2009) were markedly depleted in δ¹⁸O. These years are those when the highest summer temperatures were recorded in the area (the ones during which glacier ablation usually increases and more depleted meltwaters fill the lake), with the exception of 1995 during which high water levels occurred following the year with the second highest summer temperature (1994). Overall, our analysis demonstrates that tree‐ring δ¹⁸O, driven by the glacial meltwater signature in the lake, can be used for detecting past major glacier runoff events. The proposed approach could also be used for quantifying past glacier runoff and for defining past distribution areas of glacial meltwaters in glacier forefields, thus contributing to past environmental reconstructions and to hazard assessment.     

Process‐based hydrological modelling: The potential of a bottom‐up approach for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments

Conceptual rainfall–runoff models are a valuable tool for predictions in ungauged catchments. However, most of them rely on calibration to determine parameter values. Improving the representation of runoff processes in models is an attractive alternative to calibration. Such an approach requires a straightforward, a priori parameter allocation procedure applicable on a wide range of spatial scales. However, such a procedure has not been developed yet. In this paper, we introduce a process‐based runoff generation module (RGM‐PRO) as a spin‐off of the traditional runoff generation module of the PREVAH hydrological modelling system. RGM‐PRO is able to exploit information from maps of runoff types, which are developed on the basis of field investigations and expert knowledge. It is grid based, and within each grid cell, the process heterogeneity is considered to avoid information loss due to grid resolution. The new module is event based, and initial conditions are assimilated and downscaled from continuous simulations of PREVAH, which are also available for real‐time applications. Four parameter allocation strategies were developed, on the basis of the results of sprinkling experiments on 60‐m² hillslope plots at several grassland locations in Switzerland, and were tested on five catchments on the Swiss Plateau and Prealps. For the same catchments, simulation results obtained with the best parameter allocation strategy were compared with those obtained with different configurations of the traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, which was also applied as an event‐based module here. These configurations include a version that avoids calibration, one that transfers calibrated parameters, and one that uses regionalised parameter values. RGM‐PRO simulated heavy events in a more realistic way than the uncalibrated traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, and, in some instances, it even exceeded the performance of the calibrated traditional one. The use of information on the spatial distribution of runoff types additionally proved to be valuable as a regionalisation technique and showed advantages over the other regionalisation approaches, also in terms of robustness and transferability.     

Identification of groundwater recharge sources and processes in a heterogeneous alluvial aquifer: results from multi‐level monitoring of hydrochemistry and environmental isotopes in a riverside agricultural area in Korea

We evaluated sources and pathways of groundwater recharge for a heterogeneous alluvial aquifer beneath an agricultural field, based on multi‐level monitoring of hydrochemistry and environmental isotopes of a riverside groundwater system at Buyeo, Korea. Two distinct groundwater zones were identified with depth: (1) a shallow oxic groundwater zone, characterized by elevated concentrations of NO₃^? and (2) a deeper (>10–14 m from the ground surface) sub‐oxic groundwater zone with high concentrations of dissolved Fe, silica, and HCO₃^?, but little nitrate. The change of redox zones occurred at a depth where the aquifer sediments change from an upper sandy stratum to a silty stratum with mud caps. The δ¹⁸O and δ²H values of groundwater were also different between the two zones. Hydrochemical and δ¹⁸O? δ²H data of oxic groundwater are similar to those of soil water. This illustrates that recharge of oxic groundwater mainly occurs through direct infiltration of rain and irrigation water in the sandy soil area where vegetable cropping with abundant fertilizer use is predominant. Oxic groundwater is therefore severely contaminated by agrochemical pollutants such as nitrate. In contrast, deeper sub‐oxic groundwater contains only small amounts of dissolved oxygen (DO) and NO₃^?. The ³H contents and elevated silica concentrations in sub‐oxic groundwater indicate a somewhat longer mean residence time of groundwater within this part of the aquifer. Sub‐oxic groundwater was also characterized by higher δ¹⁸O and δ²H values and lower d‐excess values, indicating significant evaporation during recharge. We suggest that recharge of sub‐oxic groundwater occurs in the areas of paddy rice fields where standing irrigation and rain water are affected by strong evaporation, and that reducing conditions develop during subsequent sub‐surface infiltration. This study illustrates the existence of two groundwater bodies with different recharge processes within an alluvial aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural styles,hydrocarbon prospects,and potential in the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau,north Pakistan

The Salt Range/Potwar Plateau (SRPP) is part of the Himalayan foreland and an important petroleum province in north Pakistan. The hydrocarbons are commonly produced from stacked Cambrian to Eocene clastic and carbonate reservoirs which have an average thickness of 1 km. These strata are overlain by at least 5 km of Miocene and younger continental molasse sedimentation in the deepest part of the foreland basin. Surface and subsurface (seismic interpretations and borehole data) geology combined with the timing and the patterns of sedimentation has allowed to interpret the deformation as thin skinned, with a detachment in weak Eocambrian evaporates and the development of ramp-and-flat structures, since about 8 Ma. We have reviewed the structural interpretations with new borehole logs, field geology, and reserve estimates in this paper to precisely define oil-field structures with a view on future exploration. As a result of this work, 12 oil fields are classified as three detachment folds, four fault-propagation folds, four pop-ups, and one triangle zone structure. The latter two are identified as better prospects with the last one as the best with estimated reserves of 51 million barrels of oil (MMBO). Hence, the triangle zones along with other ramp-and-flat structures from the North Potwar Deformed Zone (NPDZ) are recognized to provide potential future prospects. Finally, a 40-km-long structural cross section from NPDZ is used to discuss complex deformation of the triangle zone and duplex structures as future potential prospects. About 55 km of shortening across the NPDZ during Plio-Pleistocene time is calculated, which has important bearing on the geometry of prospects, reserve calculations, and the future exploration.     

The COST733 circulation type classification software: an example for surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe

In the framework of the COST733 Action ??Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions?? a new circulation type classification software (hereafter, referred to as cost733class software) is developed. The cost733class software contains a variety of (European) classification methods and is flexible towards choice of domain of interest, input variables, time step, number of circulation types, sequencing and (weighted) target variables. This work introduces the capabilities of the cost733class software in which the resulting circulation types (CTs) from various circulation type classifications (CTCs) are applied on observed summer surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe. Firstly, the main characteristics of the CTCs in terms of circulation pattern frequencies are addressed using the baseline COST733 catalogue (cat 2.0), at present the latest product of the new cost733class software. In a second step, the probabilistic Brier skill score is used to quantify the explanatory power of all classifications in terms of the maximum 8 hourly mean ozone concentrations exceeding the 120-??g/m³ threshold; this was based on ozone concentrations from 130 Central European measurement stations. Averaged evaluation results over all stations indicate generally higher performance of CTCs with a higher number of types. Within the subset of methodologies with a similar number of types, the results suggest that the use of CTCs based on optimisation algorithms are performing slightly better than those which are based on other algorithms (predefined thresholds, principal component analysis and leader algorithms). The results are further elaborated by exploring additional capabilities of the cost733class software. Sensitivity experiments are performed using different domain sizes, input variables, seasonally based classifications and multiple-day sequencing. As an illustration, CTCs which are also conditioned towards temperature with various weights are derived and tested similarly. All results exploit a physical interpretation by adapting the environment-to-circulation approach, providing more detailed information on specific synoptic conditions prevailing on days with high surface ozone concentrations. This research does not intend to bring forward a favourite classification methodology or construct a statistical ozone forecasting tool but should be seen as an introduction to the possibilities of the cost733class software. It this respect, the results presented here can provide a basic user support for the cost733class software and the development of a more user- or application-specific CTC approach.