Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.     

Burial and exhumation of the Hoh Xil Basin,northern Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from detrital (U-Th)/He ages

The uplift and associated exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau has been widely considered a key control of Cenozoic global cooling. The south-central parts of this plateau experienced rapid exhumation during the Cretaceous–Palaeocene periods. When and how the northern part was exhumed, however, remains controversial. The Hoh Xil Basin (HXB) is the largest late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the northern part, and it preserves the archives of the exhumation history. We present detrital apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He data from late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary rocks of the western and eastern HXB. These data, combined with regional geological constraints and interpreted with inverse and forward model of sediment deposition and burial reheating, suggest that the occurrence of ca. 4–2.7 km and ca. 4–2.3 km of vertical exhumation initiated at ca. 30–25 Ma and 40–35 Ma in the eastern and western HXB respectively. The initial differential exhumation of the eastern HXB and the western HXB might be controlled by the oblique subduction of the Qaidam block beneath the HXB. The initial exhumation timing in the northern Tibetan Plateau is younger than that in the south-central parts. This reveals an episodic exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau compared to models of synchronous Miocene exhumation of the entire plateau and the early Eocene exhumation of the northern Tibetan Plateau shortly after the India–Asia collision. One possible mechanism to account for outward growth is crustal shortening. A simple model of uplift and exhumation would predict a maximum of 0.8 km of surface uplift after upper crustal shortening during 30–27 Ma, which is insufficient to explain the high elevations currently observed. One way to increase elevation without changing exhumation rates and to decouple uplift from upper crustal shortening is through the combined effects of continental subduction, mantle lithosphere removal and magmatic inflation.     

CMB temperature polarization correlation and primordial gravitational waves

We examine the use of the TE cross-correlation power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as a complementary test to detect primordial gravitational waves (PGWs). The first method used is based on the determination of the lowest multipole, ℓ₀, where the TE power spectrum,   C ^TE_ℓ  , first changes sign. The second method uses Wiener filtering on the CMB TE data to remove the density perturbations contribution to the TE power spectrum. In principle this leaves only the contribution of PGWs. We examine two toy experiments (one ideal and another more realistic) to see their ability to constrain PGWs using the TE power spectrum alone. We found that an ideal experiment, one limited only by cosmic variance, can detect PGWs with a ratio of tensor to scalar metric perturbation power spectra   r = 0.3  at 99.9 per cent confidence level using only the TE correlation. This value is comparable with current constraints obtained by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe based on the 2σ upper limits to the B-mode amplitude. We demonstrate that to measure PGWs by their contribution to the TE cross-correlation power spectrum in a realistic ground-based experiment when real instrumental noise is taken into account, the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r , should be approximately three times larger.     

The history and impact of air pollution at Čertovo Lake,southwestern Czech Republic

This multi-disciplinary investigation documents the longterm effects of atmospheric pollution of metals and acids on a geologically sensitive catchment in the umava Mountains, southwestern Czech Republic, a region with a long history of human disturbance. A 30 cm long sediment core (I) from ertovo Lake was analyzed for natural and artifical radionuclides, metals, diatoms, chrysophytes, and pollen in sediments accumulated during the last 200 years. A second core (II), extending to 95 cm, included sediment judged to be free of atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the Industrial Revolution. Chronostratigraphic markers include several changes in the pollen assemblages corresponding to well-documented changes in land-use, and distinct distributions of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs and ²⁴¹Am from weapons testing and the 1986 nuclear accident at Chernobyl, Russia. These markers corroborate the ²¹⁰Pb dating and, together, produce a reliable chronology extending back nearly to 1800 A.D.Stratigraphic profiles of Cu, Pb, and Zn in Core I are unlike any previously reported in the literature. Concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn remain generally above 100, 400, and 200 g g^-1, respectively, for the 200 years represented by Core I. These values are unusually high for sediments from a watershed with no known heavy-metal ore bodies. Accumulation rates for Cu, Pb, and Zn, which include both atmospheric and watershed contributions, are also high (ca 1, > 1 and > 1 g cm^-2 yr^-1, respectively) for the same period, although the anthropogenic contribution of Zn rose from nearly zero at 1800 A.D. The Cu and Pb accumulation rates rose dramatically about 1640 A.D.Accumulation rates of anthropogenically-derived Be, a relatively abundant element in the soft coals of the region, are also elevated by about 0.01 g cm^-2 yr^-1 in sediments of this period. Vanadium accumulation rates increased only since 1980 A.D., presumably along with increased consumption of oil.Diatom assemblages illustrate that the lake was acidic (pH between 4.5 and 5) through at least the past 200 years. The pH declined significantly (from ca 5 to 4) between 1960 and 1985 with a slight increase to 4.5 in the last few years. Recent diatom and chrysophyte assemblages suggest high trace metal concentrations, consistent with the present lake-water chemistry.     

Resolving the landfill siting impasse: modelling technocratic and indigenous perspectives using GIS multicriteria approach

Increase in waste generation calls for an effective waste management as this has become a necessity for environmental sustainability. Several methods are adopted in managing waste, which include waste reduction, reuse, thermal treatment, recycling and landfilling. The landfill method is recognised as the most used of all the waste management methods in developing countries such as Ghana. However, the selection of a suitable landfill site is very difficult and tedious. This is because it involves a consideration of many factors such as environmental, topographic, economic, socio-cultural and civil engineering. This research sought to identify a suitable landfill site by applying GIS multicriteria and weighted overlay approach in the Bongo District of Northern Ghana. The analysis relied on criteria and weights provided by the technocrats and the indigenes in the district as a way of demonstrating how landfill siting impasse can be resolved by incorporating the various stakeholders. The results obtained provided clear areas for landfill sites in the study area from the technocratic and the indigenous perspectives. However, the technocratic perspective failed to include an important cultural criterion, sacred groves, as a factor. The indigenous perspective also compromised on the factor related to nearness to residential areas, and is equally not sufficient on its own. The optimal landfill sites, which meets the expectations of both the technocrats and indigenes, was identified. This perspective has produced technically favourable and socio-culturally acceptable landfill site. However, it is recommended an environmental impact assessment (EIA) be conducted to identify the full environmental and social cost of the site. It is concluded that in landfill site selection much attention be given to cultural factors in the same way as the technical factors.     

青藏高原古人类的艺术创作——基于中更新世手脚印形态分析

在第二次青藏科考过程中,作者在西藏自治区拉萨市邱桑村的古泉华沉积上新发现了由5个手印和5个脚印组成 “岩面艺术” （parietal art）。对这一“岩面艺术”进行解剖学测量、3D 模型模拟、铀系测年和手脚印形态分析后,得到以下认识：① “岩面艺术”是在泉华没有成岩之前由古人类有意压上去的;② “岩面艺术”所在岩层的U/Th年代为226~169 ka B.P.,这其中包含一个手指印岩层的表面直接年龄（207~188 ka B.P.）;③ 这一发现是迄今为止发表的古人类在青藏高原上活动的最早记录之一,也为古人类适应高寒、低氧环境提供了新的证据;④ 此岩面艺术是目前世界上已知的最古老的艺术,上面的手印也是古人类留下的最早的手印;⑤ 这一原始的岩面艺术表明,创作它的古老人种可能具有一定的认知和空间感知能力,此岩面艺术的发现也将有可能改写人类艺术史,并且加深我们对已消失的古人类认知水平的认识。     

Towards a Better Understanding of Dynamic Interaction Metrics for Wildlife: a Null Model Approach

The ability to measure dynamic interactions, such as attraction or avoidance, is crucial to understanding socio‐spatial behaviors related to territoriality and mating as well as for exploring resource use and the potential spread of infectious epizootic diseases. In spite of the importance of measuring dynamic interactions, it has not been a main research focus in movement pattern analysis. With very few exceptions (see Benhamou et al. 2014), no new metrics have been developed in the past 20 years to accommodate the fundamental shift in the type of animal movement data now being collected and there have been few comparison or otherwise critical studies of existing dynamic interaction metrics (but see Long et al. 2014; Miller 2012). This research borrows from the null model approach commonly used in community ecology to compare six currently used dynamic interaction metrics using data on five brown hyena dyads in Northern Botswana. There was disconcerting variation among the dynamic interaction results depending on which metric and which null model was used, and these results highlight the need for more extensive research on measuring and interpreting dynamic interactions in order to avoid making potentially misleading inferences about socio‐spatial behaviors.     

Procedures for woody vegetation surveys in the Kazgail rural council area,Kordofan, Sudan

Efforts to reforest parts of the Kordofan Province of Sudan are receiving support from international development agencies. These efforts include planning and implementing reforestation activities that require the collection of natural resources and socioeconomic data, and the preparation of base maps. A combination of remote sensing, geographic information system and global positioning systems procedures are used in this study to meet these requirements.

Remote sensing techniques were used to provide base maps and to guide the compilation of vegetation resources maps. These techniques provided a rapid and efficient method for documenting available resources. Pocket‐sized global positioning system units were used to establish the location of field data collected for mapping and resource analysis. A microcomputer data management system tabulated and displayed the field data. The resulting system for data analysis, management, and planning has been adopted for the mapping and inventory of the Gum Belt of Sudan.