Performance assessment of three convective parameterization schemes in WRF for downscaling summer rainfall over South Africa

Austral summer rainfall over the period 1991/1992 to 2010/2011 was dynamically downscaled by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model at 9 km resolution for South Africa. Lateral boundary conditions for WRF were provided from the European Centre for medium-range weather (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim data. The model biases for the rainfall were evaluated over the South Africa as a whole and its nine provinces separately by employing three different convective parameterization schemes, namely the (1) Kain–Fritsch (KF), (2) Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) and (3) Grell–Devenyi ensemble (GDE) schemes. All three schemes have generated positive rainfall biases over South Africa, with the KF scheme producing the largest biases and mean absolute errors. Only the BMJ scheme could reproduce the intensity of rainfall anomalies, and also exhibited the highest correlation with observed interannual summer rainfall variability. In the KF scheme, a significantly high amount of moisture was transported from the tropics into South Africa. The vertical thermodynamic profiles show that the KF scheme has caused low level moisture convergence, due to the highly unstable atmosphere, and hence contributed to the widespread positive biases of rainfall. The negative bias in moisture, along with a stable atmosphere and negative biases of vertical velocity simulated by the GDE scheme resulted in negative rainfall biases, especially over the Limpopo Province. In terms of rain rate, the KF scheme generated the lowest number of low rain rates and the maximum number of moderate to high rain rates associated with more convective unstable environment. KF and GDE schemes overestimated the convective rain and underestimated the stratiform rain. However, the simulated convective and stratiform rain with BMJ scheme is in more agreement with the observations. This study also documents the performance of regional model in downscaling the large scale climate mode such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and subtropical dipole modes. The correlations between the simulated area averaged rainfalls over South Africa and Nino3.4 index were ?0.66, ?0.69 and ?0.49 with KF, BMJ and GDE scheme respectively as compared to the observed correlation of ?0.57. The model could reproduce the observed ENSO-South Africa rainfall relationship and could successfully simulate three wet (dry) years that are associated with La Niña (El Niño) and the BMJ scheme is closest to the observed variability. Also, the model showed good skill in simulating the excess rainfall over South Africa that is associated with positive subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole for the DJF season 2005/2006.     

Period–luminosity relations for red supergiant variables – I.The calibration

We present CCD photometry of red supergiant long-period variables (LPVs) in the Per OB1 association, the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and M33. The photometry was obtained in the Kron–Cousins R and I bandpasses and in a narrow bandpass ( λ ₀=8250 Å, FWHM=300 Å) chosen to avoid TiO bands in the spectral energy distribution of the LPVs. Because the strength of the TiO bands varies greatly with temperature, which varies with the phase of an LPV, avoiding TiO reduces the amplitude of the photometric variations seen in LPVs. The result is a lower dispersion and a well defined period–luminosity (PL) relation.
For the LMC sample we find an rms dispersion of 0.27 mag in the narrow-band PL relation and slightly larger dispersions for the LPVs in Per OB1 and M33. This dispersion is comparable to that of the Cepheid PL relation at similar wavelengths. Adopting a distance modulus of 18.5±0.1 mag for the LMC, we obtain distance moduli of 11.68±0.15 mag for Per OB1 and 24.85±0.13 mag for M33. These distances agree well with those based on main sequence fitting for Per OB1 and the Cepheid distance for M33. Since LPVs are ∼ 5 times more common than Cepheids and have a well defined PL relation, LPVs provide a promising method for estimating Galactic and extra galactic distances.     

Late Quaternary sea‐level change and evolution of Belfast Lough,Northern Ireland: new offshore evidence and implications for sea‐level reconstruction

The interplay of eustatic and isostatic factors causes complex relative sea‐level (RSL) histories, particularly in paraglacial settings. In this context the past record of RSL is important in understanding ice‐sheet history, earth rheology and resulting glacio‐isostatic adjustment. Field data to develop sea‐level reconstructions are often limited to shallow depths and uncertainty exists as to the veracity of modelled sea‐level curves. We use seismic stratigraphy, 39 vibrocores and 26 radiocarbon dates to investigate the deglacial history of Belfast Lough, Northern Ireland, and reconstruct past RSL. A typical sequence of till, glacimarine and Holocene sediments is preserved. Two sea‐level lowstands (both max. ?40 m) are recorded at c. 13.5 and 11.5k cal a bp . Each is followed by a rapid transgression and subsequent periods of RSL stability. The first transgression coincides temporally with a late stage of Meltwater Pulse 1a and the RSL stability occurred between c. 13.0 and c. 12.2k cal a bp (Younger Dryas). The second still/slowstand occurred between c. 10.3 and c. 11.5k cal a bp . Our data provide constraints on the direction and timing of RSL change during deglaciation. Application of the Depth of Closure concept adds an error term to sea‐level reconstructions based on seismic stratigraphic reconstructions.     

The Development of Laser Ablation ICP-MS and Calibration Strategies: Examples from the Analysis of Trace Elements in Volcanic Glass Shards and Sulfide Minerals

This contribution presents a review of the recent developments in laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. We describe the important developments which have occurred in the laser systems used, leading to a spatial resolution of around 20 (im, and give an overview of the major instrument developments which have affected the geological applications of laser ablation ICP-MS. We describe the calibration of laser ablation for the analysis of trace elements in two different matrices: volcanic glass shards and sulfide minerals. We show how single glass shards can be analysed using the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) glass certified reference materials for calibration and demonstrate the effect of using single spot analyses compared to rastering of the calibration sample. We show the importance of inter-shard variation and demonstrate that averaged single shard analyses produce data which compare well with bulk analyses. The calibration of the laser system for sulfide mineral analysis is discussed and two different strategies are proposed, one using spiked pressed powder pellets of sulfides and the other metal reference materials. We present conclusions and recommendations for the calibration of laser ablation ICP-MS instruments.     

Groundwater-level response to land-use change and the implications for salinity management in the West Moorabool River catchment, Victoria, Australia

The connection between the removal of native vegetation, rising water tables and increasing stream salinity has been established for many catchments across Australia. However, the West Moorabool River in south west Victoria is an example of a catchment where there has been little discernable effect on groundwater levels following land clearing. Over the past 150 years, a significant portion of the catchment has been cleared of dense forest for agricultural development. Historic standing water-level records from 1870–1871 and 1881 are compared with contemporary measurements (1970s to 2007) recorded in the government bore databases. The data show that the earliest recorded groundwater levels are well within the seasonal range of values observed today. By integrating geology and hydrogeology with historical observations of groundwater levels, climate data and land use, the contemporary field observations of stream salinity are linked to the changed water use and shift in rainfall. In contrast to the normally accepted axiom, reafforestation as a management strategy to mitigate the rising salinity in the West Moorabool River catchment would seem inappropriate.     

Potassium‐argon dates from the Arltunga Nappe complex,northern territory

Twenty‐four mineral separates from the Arunta Complex, four from the metamorphosed Heavitree Quartzite (White Range Quartzite), and one whole rock sample of metamorphosed Bitter Springs Formation, all from the western part of the White Range Nappe of the Arltunga Nappe Complex, and two samples from the autochthonous basement west of the nappe have been dated by the K‐Ar method. The samples from the basement rocks form two groups. Those in the southern or frontal part of the nappe are of Middle Proterozoic (Carpentarian) age (1660–1368 m.y.), determined on hornblende, biotite, and muscovite. In the northern or rear part of the nappe, all but one of the muscovite samples and two biotites are of Middle Silurian to Early Carboniferous age (431–345 m.y.); the remainder of the biotite dates range from 1775 to 548 m.y. (including the two samples from the autochthon), and two hornblendes gave dates of 1639 and 2132 m.y. respectively. All the muscovite samples from the Heavitree Quartzite, and the whole rock sample from the Bitter Springs Formation gave Early to Middle Carboniferous dates (358–322 m.y.). The findings support the identification of the White Range Quartzite as the metamorphosed part of the Heavitree Quartzite, which in turn supports the interpretation of the structure of the area as a large, basement‐cored fold nappe. In addition, they date the time of the Alice Springs Orogeny as pre‐Late Carboniferous, which agrees with fossil evidence from elsewhere in the area. The Alice Springs Orogeny was accompanied by widespread greenschist facies meta‐morphism that progressively metamorphosed the Heavitree Quartzite and Bitter Springs Formation, and retrogressively metamorphosed the Arunta Complex. However, the basement rocks in the southern part of the nappe escaped this metamorphism and retain a Middle Proterozoic age, thus dating the time of the Arunta Orogeny in this region as Carpentarian or older.     

On the kinetics of textural equilibration in forsterite marbles

In the aureole of the Beinn an Dubhaich granite, Skye, the minimum observed median forsterite-calcite-calcite dihedral angle varies from 110° at the olivinein isograd to about 165° (the equilibrium value) at the granite-limestone contact. Laboratory experiments were performed to investigate the kinetics of this textural change. It was found that the rate of change of the forsterite-calcite-calcite dihedral angle followed approximately first-order kinetics with an activation energy of 48±4 kJ mol^-1 for fluid-present conditions, and 90 ±4 kJ mol^-1 for fluid-absent conditions. Scanning ion imaging demonstrated that, at least in the early stages of textural change, solution-reprecipitation of the calcite was the rate determining step in the fluid-present runs. The latter result and the value of the activation energy are both consistent with the activation energy found by previous authors for (albeit zeroth order) silicate-aqueous solution solution-reprecipitation reactions. The value of activation energy for the dry data does not correspond to those for either grain boundary or volume diffusion of oxygen or magnesium in forsterite. The mechanism for textural equilibration in the fluid-absent runs is uncertain. Application of the experimentally-derived rate equation to the Beinn an Dubhaich marbles gave activation energies higher than those obtained experimentally. It is concluded from consideration of grain growth effects that activation energies derived from the Beinn an Dubhaich marbles probably reflect textural equilibration under predominantly fluid-absent conditions.     

Computer-composite mapping for geologists

A computer program for overlaying maps has been tested and evaluated as a means for producing geologic derivative maps. Four maps of the Sugar House Quadrangle, Utah, were combined, using the Multi-Scale Data Analysis and Mapping Program, in a single composite map that shows the relative stability of the land surface during earthquakes. Computer-composite mapping can provide geologists with a powerful analytical tool and a flexible graphic display technique. Digitized map units can be shown singly, grouped with different units from the same map, or combined with units from other source maps to produce composite maps. The mapping program permits the user to assign various values to the map units and to specify symbology for the final map. Because of its flexible storage, easy manipulation, and capabilities of graphic output, the composite-mapping technique can readily be applied to mapping projects in sedimentary and crystalline terranes, as well as to maps showing mineral resource potential.     

Formation of chlorite rims and the impact of pore-lining chlorite on reservoir quality: a case study from Shiqianfeng sandstones in upper Permian of Dongpu Depression,Bohai Bay Basin,eastern China

The source material, precursor and formation processes of chlorite rims, and impact of pore-lining chlorite on reservoir quality of the Shiqianfeng sandstones, Dongpu Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, China, are studied using an integrated approach, including core observation, point-count analysis of thin-sections, scanning electron microscopy, electron microprobe analysis and cathode luminescence. The petrographic analysis shows that chlorite rims consist of grain-coating chlorite, poorly crystalline pore-lining chlorite and euhedral-crystallised pore-lining chlorite. The chemical composition shows that pore-lining chlorite is mainly Fe-rich with an average of 0.785 for Fe/(Fe+Mg) ratio. Petrographic analysis shows a large amount of volcanic dust (3.0～16.0 vol%, average of 7.93 vol%) in Shiqianfeng sandstones, which determines the formation of poorly crystalline pore-lining chlorite. Transformation of volcanic dust to smectite rims started with shallow burial depth at an early diagenetic stage, followed by in situ alteration of the smectite rims to poorly crystalline chlorite rims. Euhedral-crystallised chlorite mainly develops in sandstones with high porosity, high permeability and open flow systems. Pore-lining chlorite can inhibit quartz overgrowth but cannot effectively prevent pore-filling of authigenic quartz, carbonate and kaolinite cements, and therefore cannot prevent porosity destruction. However, the occurrence of pore-lining chlorite is a barometer of good reservoir quality and intense hydrodynamic conditions.     

The use of MODIS data to derive acreage estimations for larger fields: A case study in the south-western Rostov region of Russia

Recent developments in remote sensing technology, in particular improved spatial and temporal resolution, open new possibilities for estimating crop acreage over larger areas. Remotely sensed data allow in some cases the estimation of crop acreage statistics independently of sub-national survey statistics, which are sometimes biased and incomplete. This work focuses on the use of MODIS data acquired in 2001/2002 over the Rostov Oblast in Russia, by the Azov Sea. The region is characterised by large agricultural fields of around 75 ha on average. This paper presents a methodology to estimate crop acreage using the MODIS 16-day composite NDVI product. Particular emphasis is placed on a good quality crop mask and a good quality validation dataset. In order to have a second dataset which can be used for cross-checking the MODIS classification a Landsat ETM time series for four different dates in the season of 2002 was acquired and classified. We attempted to distinguish five different crop types and achieved satisfactory and good results for winter crops. Three hundred and sixty fields were identified to be suitable for the training and validation of the MODIS classification using a maximum likelihood classification. A novel method based on a pure pixel field sampling is introduced. This novel method is compared with the traditional hard classification of mixed pixels and was found to be superior.