A climate-isotope regression model with seasonally-varying and time-integrated relationships

This study investigates multivariable and multiscalar climate-??¹⁸O relationships, through the use of statistical modeling and simulation. Three simulations, of increasing complexity, are used to generate time series of daily precipitation ??¹⁸O. The first simulation uses a simple local predictor (daily rainfall amount). The second simulation uses the same local predictor plus a larger-scale climate variable (a daily NAO index), and the third simulation uses the same local and non-local predictors, but with varying seasonal effect. Since these simulations all operate at the daily timescale, they can be used to investigate the climate-??¹⁸O patterns that arise at daily-interannual timescales. These simulations show that (1) complex links exist between climate-??¹⁸O relationships at different timescales, (2) the short-timescale relationships that underlie monthly predictor-??¹⁸O relationships can be recovered using only monthly ??¹⁸O and daily predictor variables, (3) a comparison between the simulations and observational data can elucidate the physical processes at work. The regression models developed are then applied to a 2-year dataset of monthly precipitation ??¹⁸O from Dublin and compared with event-scale data from the same site, which illustrates that the methodology works, and that the third regression model explains about 55% of the variance in ??¹⁸O at this site. The methodology introduced here can potentially be applied to historic monthly ??¹⁸O data, to better understand how multiple-integrated influences at short timescales give rise to climate-??¹⁸O patterns at monthly-interannual timescales.     

Analyses of the warm season rainfall climatology of the northeastern US using regional climate model simulations and radar rainfall fields

We examine the warm season (April-September) rainfall climatology of the northeastern US through analyses of high-resolution radar rainfall fields from the Hydro-NEXRAD system and regional climate model simulations using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Analyses center on the 5-year period from 2003 to 2007 and the study area includes the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region covered by radar rainfall fields from the Fort Dix, NJ WSR-88D. The objective of this study is to develop and test tools for examining rainfall climatology, with a special focus on heavy rainfall. An additional emphasis is on rainfall climatology in regions of complex terrain, like the northeastern US, which is characterized by land-water boundaries, large heterogeneity in land use and cover, and mountainous terrain in the western portion of the region. We develop a 5-year record of warm season radar rainfall fields for the study region using the Hydro-NEXRAD system. We perform regional downscaling simulations for the 5-year study period using the WRF model. Radar rainfall fields are used to characterize the interannual, seasonal and diurnal variation of rainfall over the study region and to examine spatial heterogeneity of rainfall. Regional climate model simulations are characterized by a wet bias in the rainfall fields, with the largest bias in the high-elevation regions of the model domain. We show that model simulations capture broad features of the interannual, seasonal, and diurnal variation of rainfall. Model simulations do not capture spatial gradients in radar rainfall fields around the New York metropolitan region and land-water boundaries to the east. The model climatology of convective available potential energy (CAPE) is used to interpret the regional distribution of warm season rainfall and the seasonal and diurnal variability of rainfall. We use hydrologic and meteorological observations from July 2007 to examine the interactions of land surface processes and rainfall from a regional perspective.     

Growth by extension,and reworking,of a south‐western Kalahari linear dune

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating studies of linear (longitudinal) dunes have been used extensively to elucidate late Quaternary environments and climates in arid or formerly arid regions, yet understanding of the development of such dunes is incomplete. In particular, conflicting opinions have been presented regarding the propensity of linear dunes to migrate laterally, the degree to which they rework their own sediment during accumulation and whether they form primarily by extension, as opposed to lateral sand movement from adjacent interdunes. This study focuses on this last point, although the importance of the other controversies is discussed in context. A simple linear dune in the south‐western Kalahari, which has a prominent termination on a pan (playa) surface, provides an opportunity to directly test hypotheses of dune extension. Chronostratigraphy along a ~600 m transect along the crest of the dune, constrained by 42 OSL ages, reveals that the dune grew by extension on occasions in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, but has also been subject to reworking along its length, which has continued until recent times. Dune development by extensional growth is suggested to operate under environmental conditions more conducive to net accumulation, whereas reworking is largely independent of conditions throughout the last ~18 ka, and may represent seasonal fluctuations in the position of the dune crest. The relative significance of these two modes of development is suggested to be a key control on the efficacy of linear dunes as archives of environmental and climatic change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrothermal models of the Perth metropolitan area, Western Australia: implications for geothermal energy

Hydrothermal simulations are used to provide insight into the subsurface thermal regime of the Perth metropolitan area (PMA) in Western Australia. High average permeabilities and estimated fluid flow rates in shallow aquifers of the PMA suggest that advection and convection may occur in these aquifers. These processes are simulated, using a new geological model of the PMA to constrain the geometry of aquifers, aquitards and faults. The results show that advection has a strong influence on subsurface temperature, especially in the north of the PMA, where aquifer recharge creates an area of anomalously low temperature. Convection may be important, depending on the permeability of the Yarragadee Aquifer. If convection occurs, it creates thermal highs and lows with a spacing of approximately 5 km. Some of these thermal anomalies migrate over geological time due to coupling between advection and convection, but they are stationary on human timescales. Fault permeability influences the pattern of convection. Advection and convection cause variations in the geothermal gradient which cannot be predicted by conductive models; therefore, these processes should be considered in any model that is used for assessment of geothermal resources in the PMA.     

Modeling the natural degradation of earthworks

Stratigraphic, topographic, and ground‐penetrating radar data obtained from a ca. 1800‐year‐old embankment and adjacent ditch at the Hopewell Mound Group (Chillicothe, Ohio) are used to validate the archaeological application of a simple finite‐differences diffusion model employed frequently to assess geomorphic change in natural landscapes. Although diffusion models have been used to describe the topographic degradation of landforms in a variety of geomorphic terrains, the approach has not been applied to ancient earthworks in an archaeological context. The results of this study indicate that a variety of initial earthwork forms can result in the sinusoidal profile apparent on the current landscape. Using the model results to interpret the field data, we suggest that the initial embankment form was steeper and the adjacent ditch was deeper. As a result of natural degradation processes, the earthwork widened and flattened over time. These results have broad implications for any study aimed at: (1) assessing the function of original earthwork forms, (2) determining the formation processes of complicated stratigraphies or artifact assemblages, (3) estimating the time and labor investment required for construction, or (4) identifying the socio‐political structures necessary to build earthworks. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Effects of Kerr space–time on spectral features from X-ray illuminated accretion discs

We performed detailed calculations of the relativistic effects acting on both the reflection continuum and the iron line from accretion discs around rotating black holes. Fully relativistic transfer of both illuminating and reprocessed photons has been considered in Kerr space–time. We calculated overall spectra, line profiles and integral quantities, and present their dependences on the black hole angular momentum. We show that the observed EW of the lines is substantially enlarged when the black hole rotates rapidly and/or the source of illumination is near above the hole. Therefore, such calculations provide a way to distinguish between different models of the central source.