Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

Thermohydrodynamics of the ocean decay of nonlinear oscillations in a bounded basin of variable depth

We study the time decay of surges of a liquid in a round shallow-water basin of variable depth. The dependence of the logarithmic decrement of oscillations on the bottom topography and wind velocity is analyzed. The role of convective acceleration and bottom friction in the formation of both the level of vertical displacement of the surface of the basin and the velocity field of horizontal wave currents is estimated. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 3–11, March–April, 2006.     

Estimating the underwater light field from remote sensing of ocean color

We present a new approach that incorporates two models to estimate the underwater light field from remote sensing of ocean color. The first employs a series of analytical, semi-analytical, and empirical algorithms to retrieve the spectrum of inherent optical properties (IOPs), including the absorption and the backscatter coefficients, from the spectrum of remote sensing reflectance. The second model computes the profile of photosynthetically available radiation E _0,PAR (z) for a vertically homogeneous water column using the information of the retrieved IOPs and the ambient optical environment. This computation is based on an improved look-up table technology that possesses high accuracy, comparable with the full solution of the radiative transfer equation, and meets the computational requirement of remote sensing application. This new approach was validated by in situ measurements and an extensive model-to-model comparison with a wide range of IOPs. We successfully mapped the compensation depth by applying this new approach to process the SeaWiFS imagery. This research suggests that E _0,PAR (z) can be obtained routinely from ocean-color data and may have significant implications for the estimation of global heat and carbon budget.     

Spectral-temporal structure of variations in the atmospheric total ozone in central Eurasia

The results of long-term (1980–2003) systematic measurements of the total ozone content at the Issyk Kul station (42.6° N, 77.0° E; 1650 m above sea level) are presented. The statistical characteristics and spectral structure of variations in the total ozone and the main tendencies of its temporal variability are determined. It is found that the total ozone content decreased in 1980–2003 at an average rate of (?1.29±0.08) DU/yr. The results of Fourier and wavelet analyses have shown that only oscillations with periods of 12, 27–29, and 102–105 months are rather stable and can be represented as harmonic oscillations. Oscillations with periods shorter than six months have the character of periodically arising pulsations. Among these, oscillations with periods of 27–29 and 34–37 days can be distinguished. It is noted that the spectral-temporal structure of variations in the total ozone content obtained from ground-based measurements at the Issyk Kul station is in good agreement with the corresponding structure obtained from TOMS satellite measurements.     

Magmatic evolution of the provinces of the Pacific Ocean floor

Based on the summarized geological and petrogeochemical information on the basaltic magmatism on the Pacific Ocean floor, the formation-geochemical rock types, their associations in the oceanic morpho-structures, and petrological provinces were distinguished. The features of the composition variations of the rocks presented mainly by magno-and ferrotholeiites in mid-oceanic ridges and by their petrological analogues at the plates (Fenner trend) were examined. The increase in the silica acidity and alkalinity of the rocks (Bowen trend) is moderately manifested in the eastern provinces of the ocean and is much more pronounced in the western areas (including the formation of complexes constituted by significant volumes of alkaline rocks).     

Condition of coastal mesoplankton communities in the northeastern area of the Black Sea in 2005

The structure and distribution of mesoplankton in the northeastern part of the Black Sea along 6-mile and 100-mile sections in the area off Golubaya Bay (near the city of Gelendzhik) were analyzed. The studies were performed from R/V Akvanavt and the boat Ashamba. The observations were carried out during the vegetation season from the beginning of June to the first half of October 2005. Samples of mesoplankton were collected with use of a BSD net with an opening of 0.1 m² and a mesh size of 180 μm. Both the total (over the entire water column) and layer-by-layer (separately for the upper quasi-homogeneous layer, the seasonal thermocline, and the subthermocline layer) hauls were performed down to the bottom (at sea depths of less than 200 m) or down to the upper boundary of the hydrogen sulfide waters. The particular hydrophysical conditions that were observed in 2005 resulted in an approximately one-month advance of the phenological condition of the planktonic community as compared to the usual pattern. Beroe ovata appeared in the plankton at the end of July, the mass development of Mnemiopsis leidyi was suppressed, and the duration of its influence on edible zooplankton was essentially reduced. As a result, the total mesoplankton biomass in August–October 2005 was 1.5–2 times as great as that in 2004. The abundance of Acartia clausi increased approximately 4–5 times and the quantity of Sagitta setosa also considerably increased. At selected stations, Mnemiopsis leidyias, the main predator in the community, was replaced by Sagitta setosa.     

Water vapor in the atmosphere over the northern Tien Shan

Refined data of systematic measurements of total water vapor in the atmosphere from May 1980 to April 2005 are presented. The data were obtained at the Issyk Kul atmospheric-monitoring station by the method of solar molecular-absorption spectroscopy. Over 25 years, the annual mean water-vapor content in the atmosphere increased by 4.5% at a mean rate of increase of 0.18% per year. However, the water-vapor content decreased in the last five years. The results of statistical processing of experimental data (general statistical characteristics, correlation coefficients, composite oscillations) are described. A refined model is proposed for forecasts of temporal variations in the monthly mean and annual mean water-vapor contents for the coming years. The model includes a linear trend and the sum of oscillations with periods close to the periods of a number of well-known geophysical phenomena. Regression equations are proposed to relate the water-vapor content in the atmospheric column to the surface temperature and absolute humidity.     

Steepness and spectrum of a nonlinearly deformed wave on shallow waters

The process of nonlinear deformation of a surface wave on shallow waters is investigated. The main attention is given to the relationship between the wave Fourier spectrum and the steepness of wave front slope. It is shown that an unambiguous relationship couples these quantities in the case of an initially sinusoidal wave, which allows estimation of the spectral composition of the wave field from the observed wave steepness.     

An index of biotic integrity based on the summer polyhaline zooplankton community of the Chesapeake Bay

A zooplankton index of biotic integrity was developed for the polyhaline waters of the Chesapeake Bay using data from a long-term environmental assessment program in which both zooplankton and water quality were regularly monitored. Summer (July to September) sampling events were classified as either coming from impaired or reference (least-impaired) conditions based on water quality conditions. Seventeen zooplankton community metrics were evaluated under these criteria and nine were chosen for a composite index. These were the Simpson diversity index, and abundance of barnacle larvae, rotifers, cladocerans, copepods, total mesozooplankton, and predators. The composite index of biotic integrity correctly classified about 94% of the impaired samples and about 82% of the reference samples. Average classification efficiency was 88%. This index appears to be an effective measure of eutrophication for the summer polyhaline waters of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.     

Lead contamination of small cetaceans in European waters--the use of stable isotopes for identifying the sources of lead exposure

Lead concentrations and isotopic composition have been measured in bone and teeth of small cetaceans belonging to three species (Delphinus delphis, Phocoena phocoena and Stenella coeruleoalba), to evaluate the toxicological risk and to determine sources of lead in the European waters. Lead concentrations, far lower than threshold value inducing toxic effects in human, were higher in teeth than in bones, but highly correlated between the two tissues (r=0.92, p<0.001). Large variations of 206Pb/207Pb values in bone tissue showed that cetaceans must be submitted to various atmospheric influences. No geographical differences appeared which is consistent with studies on their distribution indicating seasonal movements between Brittany waters and the Bay of Biscay. The negative correlation between 206Pb/207Pb ratios and age of the individuals reflected the decrease in the production of alkyl lead in Europe, i.e., the increasing use of unleaded gasoline.