A novel model and estimation method for the individual random component of earthquake ground-motion relations

In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In essence, I contend that the individual random component is reproduced adequately by a simple stochastic mechanism of random impulses acting in the horizontal plane, with random directions. The random number of impulses was Poisson distributed. The parameters of the model were estimated according to a proposal by Raschke J Seismol 17(4):1157–1182, (2013a), with the sample of random difference ξ?=?ln(Y ₁ )-ln(Y ₂ ), in which Y ₁ and Y ₂ are the horizontal components of local ground-motion intensity. Any GMR element was eliminated by subtraction, except the individual random components. In the estimation procedure, the distribution of difference ξ was approximated by combining a large Monte Carlo simulated sample and Kernel smoothing. The estimated model satisfactorily fitted the difference ξ of the sample of peak ground accelerations, and the variance of the individual random components was considerably smaller than that of conventional GMRs. In addition, the dependence of variance on the epicentre distance was considered; however, a dependence of variance on the magnitude was not detected. Finally, the influence of the novel model and the corresponding approximations on PSHA was researched. The applied approximations of distribution of the individual random component were satisfactory for the researched example of PSHA.     

Wave Propagation in Pulsating Stars

Lissajous diagrams are used to detect phase lags between radial velocity curves associated with different ions. Present in many kind of variable stars, this effect provides an important tool to study the atmosphere dynamics. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Including the Urban Canopy Layer in a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - When wind blows over the ocean, short wind-waves (of wavelength smaller than 10 m) are generated, rapidly reaching an equilibrium with the overlying turbulence (at...     

20th Century Climate Change in the Tropical Andes: Observations and Model Results

Linear trend analysis of observational data combined with model diagnostics from an atmospheric general circulation model are employed to search for potential mechanisms related to the observed glacier retreat in the tropical Andes between 1950 and 1998. Observational evidence indicates that changes in precipitation amount or cloud cover over the last decades are minor in most regions and are therefore rather unlikely to have caused the observed retreat. The only exception is in southern Peru and western Bolivia where there is a general tendency toward slightly drier conditions. Near-surface temperature on the other hand has increased significantly throughout most of the tropical Andes. The temperature increase varies markedly between the eastern and western Andean slopes with a much larger temperature increase to the west. Simulations with the ECHAM-4 model, forced with observed global sea surface temperatures (SST) realistically reproduce the observed warming trend as well as the spatial trend pattern. Model results further suggest that a significant fraction of the observed warming can be traced to a concurrent rise in SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the markedly different trends in cloud cover to the east and west of the Andes contributed to the weaker warming east of the Andes in the model. The observed increase in relative humidity, derived from CRU 05 data, is also apparent in the model simulations, but on a regional scale the results between model and observations vary significantly. It is argued that changes in temperature and humidity are the primary cause for the observed glacier retreat during the 2nd half of the 20th century in the tropical Andes.     

Comment on: “Corrections to the Mathematical Formulation of a Backwards Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model” by Gibson and Sailor (2012: Boundary-Layer Meteorology 145, 399–406)

We discuss the results of Gibson and Sailor (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 145:399–406, 2012) who suggest several corrections to the mathematical formulation of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model of Rotach et al. (Q J R Meteorol Soc 122:367–389, 1996). While most of the suggested corrections had already been implemented in the 1990s, one suggested correction raises a valid point, but results in a violation of the well-mixed criterion. Here we improve their idea and test the impact on model results using a well-mixed test and a comparison with wind-tunnel experimental data. The new approach results in similar dispersion patterns as the original approach, while the approach suggested by Gibson and Sailor leads to erroneously reduced concentrations near the ground in convective and especially forced convective conditions.     

Landslide deposits as stratigraphical markers for a sequence‐based glacial stratigraphy: a case study of a Younger Dryas system in the Eastern Alps

Detailed ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C dating and supporting pollen analysis of Alpine Lateglacial glacial and landslide deposits in the Hohen Tauern Mountains (Austria) constrain a sequence‐based stratigraphy comprising a major landslide (13.0±1.1 ka) overlain by till and termino‐lateral moraines of an advancing (12.6±1.0 ka) and retreating (11.3±0.8 ka) glacier in turn overlain by a minor landslide (10.8±1.1 ka). These results define glacier activity during the Younger Dryas age Egesen stadial bracketed by landslide activities during the Bølling‐Allerød interstadial and the Preboreal. In contrast to recent studies on Holocene glaciation in the Alps, no traces of any Holocene glacier advance bigger than during the Little Ice Age are documented. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the advantages of using an allostratigraphical approach based on unconformity‐bounded sedimentary units as a tool for glacial stratigraphy in formerly glaciated mountain regions, rather than a stratigraphy based on either isolated morphological features or lithostratigraphical characteristics.     

Geodetic observations of ice flow velocities over the southern part of subglacial Lake Vostok, Antarctica, and their glaciological implications

In the austral summer seasons 2001/02 and 2002/03, Global Positioning System (GPS) data were collected in the vicinity of Vostok Station to determine ice flow velocities over Lake Vostok. Ten GPS sites are located within a radius of 30 km around Vostok Station on floating ice as well as on grounded ice to the east and to the west of the lake. Additionally, a local deformation network around the ice core drilling site 5G-1 was installed.
The derived ice flow velocity for Vostok Station is  2.00 m a⁻¹± 0.01 m a⁻¹  . Along the flowline of Vostok Station an extension rate of about 10⁻⁵ a⁻¹ (equivalent to 1 cm km⁻¹ a⁻¹) was determined. This significant velocity gradient results in a new estimate of 28 700 years for the transit time of an ice particle along the Vostok flowline from the bedrock ridge in the southwest of the lake to the eastern shoreline. With these lower velocities compared to earlier studies and, hence, larger transit times the basal accretion rate is estimated to be 4 mm a⁻¹ along a portion of the Vostok flowline. An assessment of the local accretion rate at Vostok Station using the observed geodetic quantities yields an accretion rate in the same order of magnitude. Furthermore, the comparison of our geodetic observations with results inferred from ice-penetrating radar data indicates that the ice flow may not have changed significantly for several thousand years.     

Annual floods in New England (USA) and Atlantic Canada: synoptic climatology and generating mechanisms

New England and Atlantic Canada are characterized by mixed flood regimes that reflect different storm types, antecedent land surface conditions, and flood seasonality. Mixed flood regimes are known to complicate flood risk analyses, yet the synoptic climatology and precipitation mechanisms that generate annual floods in this region have not been described in detail. We analyzed a set of long-term annual flood records at climate-sensitive stream gauges across the region and classified the synoptic climatology of each annual flood, quantitatively describing the precipitation mechanisms, and characterize flood seasonality. We find that annual floods here are dominantly generated by Great Lakes-sourced storms and Coastal lows, known locally as ‘nor’easters.’ Great Lakes storms tend to be associated with lower magnitude annual floods (<75th percentile) and Coastal lows are more clearly associated with higher magnitude events (>75th percentile). Tropical cyclones account for few of all annual floods, including extreme events, despite causing some of the region’s largest and most destructive floods. Late winter/early spring is when the greatest number of annual floods occur region wide, and rainfall is the dominant flood-producing mechanism. Rainfall in combination with snowmelt is also important. Both mechanisms are expected to be impacted by projected regional climate change. We find little evidence for associations between flood-producing synoptic storm types or precipitation mechanisms and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices or time periods, despite upward trends in New England annual flood magnitudes. To more completely investigate such associations, partial duration flood series that include more floods than just the largest of each year, and their associated synoptic climatologies and precipitation mechanisms, should be analyzed.