A few observations of and remarks on V1500 Cygni

The development of the post-nova light curve of V1500 Cyg inUBV andHβ, for 15 nights in September and October 1975 are presented. We confirm previous reports that superimposed on the steady decline of the light curve are small amplitude cyclic variations. The times of maxima and minima are determined. These together with other published values yield the following ephemerides from JD 2 442 661 to JD 2 442 674: $$\begin{gathered} {\text{From}} 17 {\text{points:}} {\text{JD}}_{ \odot \min } = 2 442 661.4881 + 0_{^. }^{\text{d}} 140 91{\text{n}} \hfill \\ \pm 0.0027 \pm 0.000 05 \hfill \\ {\text{From}} 15 {\text{points:}} {\text{JD}}_{ \odot \max } = 2 442 661.5480 + 0_{^. }^{\text{d}} 140 89{\text{n}} \hfill \\ \pm 0.0046 \pm 0.0001 \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ with standard errors of the fits of ±0 _. ^d 0052 for the minima and ±0 _. ^d 0091 for the maxima. Assuming V1500 Cyg is similar to novae in M31, we foundr=750 pc and a pre-nova absolute photographic magnitude greater than 9.68.     

Agreement,significance, and understandings of historical responsibility in climate change negotiations

For over 20 years, Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have struggled with the normative significance of history for the differentiation of responsibilities. Negotiations on ‘historical responsibility’ have been marked by considerable conflict between developed and developing countries. However, in 2010, the Parties acknowledged the concept in a consensus decision. This article analyses UN Climate Change Conference delegates' agreement with the decision, whether it reconciled conflict between interpretations of historical responsibility, and the significance that delegates ascribe to the decision for future agreements. The decision has not eliminated conflict between different interpretations. Delegates who understand historical responsibility as linking countries' historical contributions to climate change to their responsibilities to act agree more with the decision and foresee it having a stronger influence on future agreements than do those viewing the concept in more conceptual terms. The decision marks the start of negotiations concerning how rather than whether historical responsibility should guide operative text. This article demonstrates that (1) the divergent interpretations pose clear challenges for a necessary but demanding agreement on operationalization, and (2) focusing on an ambiguous version of proportionality between contribution to change and responsibility can become a first step for convergence between divergent positions.     

Cold-Air Pool Processes in the Inn Valley During Föhn: A Comparison of Four Cases During the PIANO Campaign

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - We present a comprehensive analysis of four south föhn events observed during the Penetration and Interruption of Alpine Foehn (PIANO) field campaign in the Inn...     

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area equivalence, wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(ε ₀) of Joyner and Boore, Bull Seism Soc Am 83(2):469–487, 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions, which indicate the appropriate modeling of the GMR by an anisotropic point source model. The constructed distances like the Joyner–Boore distance do not work well for event-specific GMRs. We discover also a strong relation between magnitude and the squared expectation of the PGAs being integrated in the geo-space for the event-specific GMRs. One of our secondary contributions is the simple modeling of anisotropy for a point source model.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene terrestrial geomorphodynamics and soil formation in northeastern Germany: a review of geochronological data

ABSTRACT

This study is based on 616 geochronological ages from aeolian and colluvial sediments as well as paleosols, representing the largest database of geochronological data from northeastern Germany available to date. Cumulative probability density functions for radiocarbon data and kernel density estimates for luminescence data were created covering the last 15 ka. The data analysis aimed at the identification of changes and their drivers in geomorphodynamics and soil formation. The ages representing aeolian activity cluster in the Late Glacial, the Early Holocene, and the Late Holocene, where the first two clusters are assumed to result mostly from climatic impact with only a minor share of human impact triggering the mobilization of aeolian sediments. The third cluster is considered to result mainly from human impact. The Late Glacial to Early Holocene activity phase is interrupted by a phase of surface stability around 11.5–12.7 ka, which is indicated by the occurrence of initial soil formations of Finow and Usselo types. Colluvial sedimentation predominantly occurred during the last 7 ka and clearly accelerated since the last 1000 a. According to the ages of specific paleosol types, related soil-forming processes started already in the Late Glacial and were completed in the Holocene.     

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall—lessons from the Mid-Miocene

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3–4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.     

Glacier mass balance variability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru and its relationship with climate and the large-scale circulation

A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.     

Self‐centering steel connections with steel bars and a discontinuous composite slab

Six cyclic tests were conducted on three full‐scale subassemblies to investigate the behavior of interior beam‐to‐column post‐tensioned (PT) connections. Strands were placed along each side of the steel beam web, passing through the steel column to provide precompression between the beams and a column. Top and bottom energy‐dissipating (ED) bars, passing through the column and welded to the beam, were used to increase the moment capacity and ED capacity of the connection. One of the subassemblies also had a composite concrete slab with discontinuity at the column centerline to eliminate restraint from the metal deck, reinforcement, and welded wire mesh. The objectives of this paper were to investigate the following: the durability of the connection by loading each specimen twice, the ED capacity of the ED bar, and the effects that the type of ED bar and type of composite slab have on the self‐centering behavior of the connection. The experimental results showed that: (1) the connection could sustain severe inelastic cyclic loading at least twice without strength degradation, (2) the ED capacity of the bar was much larger than that dissipated by a single AISC loading protocol, and (3) a specimen with a discontinuous composite slab, which opened freely at the centerline of the column, ensured the same self‐centering hysteretic behavior as the bare steel specimen. However, the decompression moment of the PT connection decreased significantly at each interstory drift, resulting in an early opening of a gap at the beam–column interface. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of the sediment budget in understanding debris flow susceptibility

This study proposes a sediment‐budget model to predict the temporal variation of debris volume stored in a debris‐flow prone watershed. The sediment‐budget is dominated by shallow landslides and debris outflow. The basin topography and the debris volume stored in the source area of the debris‐flow prone watershed help evaluating its debris‐flow susceptibility. The susceptibility model is applied to the Tungshih area of central western Taiwan. The importance of the debris volume in predicting debris‐flow susceptibility is reflected in the standardized coefficients of the proposed statistical discriminant model. The high prediction rate (0·874) for the occurrence of debris flows justifies the capability of the proposed susceptibility models to predict the occurrence of debris flows. This model is then used to evaluate the temporal evolution of the debris‐flow susceptibility index. The analysis results show that the numbers of watershed which are classified as a debris‐flow group correspond well to storage of sediment at different time periods. These numbers are 10 before the occurrence of Chi‐Chi earthquake, 13 after the occurrence of Chi‐Chi earthquake, 16 after the occurrence of landslides induced by Typhoon Mindulle (Typhoon M), and 14 after the occurrence of debris flows induced by Typhoon M. It indicates that the occurrence of 7·6 Chi‐Chi earthquake had significant impact on the debris flow occurrence during subsequent typhoons. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.