Analysis of solute transport in a divergent flow tracer test with scale‐dependent dispersion

It has been known for many years that dispersivities increase with solute displacement distance in a subsurface. The increase of dispersivities with solute travel distance results from significant variation in hydraulic properties of porous media and was identified in the literature as scale‐dependent dispersion. In this study, Laplace‐transformed analytical solutions to advection‐dispersion equations in cylindrical coordinates are derived for interpreting a divergent flow tracer test with a constant dispersivity and with a linear scale‐dependent dispersivity. Breakthrough curves obtained using the scale‐dependent dispersivity model are compared to breakthrough curves obtained from the constant dispersivity model to illustrate the salient features of scale‐dependent dispersion in a divergent flow tracer test. The analytical results reveal that the breakthrough curves at the specific location for the constant dispersivity model can produce the same shape as those from the scale‐dependent dispersivity model. This correspondence in curve shape between these two models occurs when the local dispersivity at an observation well in the scale‐dependent dispersivity model is 1·3 times greater than the constant dispersivity in the constant dispersivity model. To confirm this finding, a set of previously reported data is interpreted using both the scale‐dependent dispersivity model and the constant dispersivity model to distinguish the differences in scale dependence of estimated dispersivity from these two models. The analytical result reveals that previously reported dispersivity/distance ratios from the constant dispersivity model should be revised by multiplying these values by a factor of 1·3 for the scale‐dependent dispersion model if the dispersion process is more accurately characterized by scale‐dependent dispersion. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual floods in New England (USA) and Atlantic Canada: synoptic climatology and generating mechanisms

New England and Atlantic Canada are characterized by mixed flood regimes that reflect different storm types, antecedent land surface conditions, and flood seasonality. Mixed flood regimes are known to complicate flood risk analyses, yet the synoptic climatology and precipitation mechanisms that generate annual floods in this region have not been described in detail. We analyzed a set of long-term annual flood records at climate-sensitive stream gauges across the region and classified the synoptic climatology of each annual flood, quantitatively describing the precipitation mechanisms, and characterize flood seasonality. We find that annual floods here are dominantly generated by Great Lakes-sourced storms and Coastal lows, known locally as ‘nor’easters.’ Great Lakes storms tend to be associated with lower magnitude annual floods (<75th percentile) and Coastal lows are more clearly associated with higher magnitude events (>75th percentile). Tropical cyclones account for few of all annual floods, including extreme events, despite causing some of the region’s largest and most destructive floods. Late winter/early spring is when the greatest number of annual floods occur region wide, and rainfall is the dominant flood-producing mechanism. Rainfall in combination with snowmelt is also important. Both mechanisms are expected to be impacted by projected regional climate change. We find little evidence for associations between flood-producing synoptic storm types or precipitation mechanisms and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices or time periods, despite upward trends in New England annual flood magnitudes. To more completely investigate such associations, partial duration flood series that include more floods than just the largest of each year, and their associated synoptic climatologies and precipitation mechanisms, should be analyzed.     

Hydroclimatic flood trends in the northeastern United States and linkages with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns

Abstract

We evaluate flood magnitude and frequency trends across the Mid-Atlantic USA at stream gauges selected for long record lengths and climate sensitivity, and find field significant increases. Fifty-three of 75 study gauges show upward trends in annual flood magnitude, with 12 showing increases at p < 0.05. We investigate trends in flood frequency using partial duration series data and document upward trends at 75% of gauges, with 27% increasing at p < 0.05. Many study gauges show evidence for step increases in flood magnitude and/or frequency around 1970. Expanding our study area to include New England, we find evidence for lagged positive relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation phase and flood magnitude and frequency. Our results suggest hydroclimatic changes in regional flood response that are related to a combination of factors, including cyclic atmospheric variability and secular trends related to climate warming affecting both antecedent conditions and event-scale processes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins     

Evaluation of basin storage–discharge sensitivity in Taiwan using low‐flow recession analysis

Sensitivity analysis of the hydrological behaviour of basins has mainly focused on the correlation between streamflow and climate, ignoring the uncertainty of future climate and not utilizing complex hydrological models. However, groundwater storage is affected by climatic change and human activities. The streamflow of many basins is primarily sourced from the natural discharge of aquifers in upstream regions. The correlation between streamflow and groundwater storage has not been thoroughly discussed. In this study, the storage–discharge sensitivity of 22 basins in Taiwan was investigated by means of daily streamflow and rainfall data obtained over more than 30 years. The relationship between storage and discharge variance was evaluated using low‐flow recession analysis and a water balance equation that ignores the influence of rainfall and evapotranspiration. Based on the obtained storage–discharge sensitivity, this study explored whether the water storage and discharge behaviour of the studied basins is susceptible to climate change or human activities and discusses the regional differences in storage–discharge sensitivity. The results showed that the average storage–discharge sensitivities were 0.056 and 0.162 mm^?1 in the northern and southern regions of Taiwan, respectively. In the central and eastern regions, the values were both 0.020 mm^?1. The storage–discharge sensitivity was very high in the southern region. The regional differences in storage–discharge sensitivity with similar climate conditions are primarily due to differences in aquifer properties. Based on the recession curve, other factors responsible for these differences include land utilization, land coverage, and rainfall patterns during dry and wet seasons. These factors lead to differences in groundwater recharge and thus to regional differences in storage–discharge sensitivity.     

The variability of European floods since AD 1500

The paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of flood variability and forcing of major European rivers since AD 1500. We compile and investigate flood reconstructions which are based on documentary evidence for twelve Central European rivers and for eight Mediterranean rivers. Flood variability and underlying climatological causes are reconstructed by using hermeneutic approaches including critical source analysis and by applying a semi-quantitative classification scheme. The paper describes the driving climatic causes, seasonality and variability of observed flood events within the different river catchments covering the European mainland. Historical flood data are presented and recent research in the field of historical flood reconstructions is highlighted. Additionally, the character of the different flood series is discussed. A comparison of the historical flood seasonality in relation to modern distribution is given and aspects of the spatial coherence are presented. The comparative analysis points to the fact that the number of flood events is predominately triggered by regional climatic forcing, with at most only minor influence on neighbouring catchments. The only exceptions are extreme, supra-regional climatic events and conditions such as anomalous cold winters, similar to that of 1784, which affected large parts of Europe and triggered flood events in several catchments as a result of ice-break at the beginning of the annual thaw. Four periods of increased occurrence of flooding, mostly affecting Central European Rivers, have been identified; 1540–1600, 1640–1700, 1730–1790, 1790–1840. The reconstruction, compilation and analysis of European-wide flood data over the last five centuries reveal the complexity of the underlying climatological causes and the high variability of flood events in temporal and spatial dimension.     

The use of Bluetooth for analysing spatiotemporal dynamics of human movement at mass events: A case study of the Ghent Festivities

In this paper, proximity-based Bluetooth tracking is postulated as an efficient and effective methodology for analysing the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of visitor movements at mass events. A case study of the Ghent Festivities event (1.5 million visitors over 10 days) is described in detail and preliminary results are shown to give an indication of the added value of the methodology for stakeholders of the event. By covering 22 locations in the study area with Bluetooth scanners, we were able to extract 152,487 trajectories generated by 80,828 detected visitors. Apart from generating clear statistics such as visitor counts, the share of returning visitors, and visitor flow maps, the analyses also reveal the complex nature of this event by hinting at the existence of several mutually different visitor profiles. We conclude by arguing why Bluetooth tracking offers significant advantages for tracking mass event visitors with respect to other and more prominent technologies, and outline some of its remaining deficiencies.     

Analysis of flow processes in fractured chalk under pumped and ambient conditions (UK)

An integrated set of different measurements has been used to study the behavior of groundwater in an observation well in a fractured rock formation, the UK Chalk, under pumped and ambient conditions. Under pumped conditions, the response of the open borehole was relatively straightforward with flow mainly concentrated along four discrete flow horizons. Furthermore, excellent correspondence was observed between the three methods of borehole flow velocity measurement: impeller flowmeter, heat-pulse flowmeter and dilution testing. Under ambient conditions, the system appeared more complicated. Specifically, in the upper half of the borehole, the impeller flowmeter exhibited substantial downward flow and the heat-pulse flowmeter exhibited almost negligible upward flow, whilst dilution testing indicated significant dilution. It was concluded that this was due to cross-flow occurring over the upper 29 m. Analysis of drawdown data, recovery data and a Drost analysis of the ambient cross-flow data yielded aquifer transmissivity estimates of 2,049, 2,928 and > 4,388 m²/day respectively. The discrepancy between the drawdown and recovery estimates was attributed to non-linear head-losses associated with turbulence and inertial effects. The difference between the pumping test and Drost results was explained by the flow during the pumping test bypassing this aforementioned 29 m region of rock.     

Effects of variations of parallel angular velocity and vorticity on the oscillations of compressible homogeneous rotating ellipsoids

Earlier work on the oscillations of an ellipsoid is extended to investigate the behaviour of a nonequilibrium compressible homogeneous rotating gaseous ellipsoid, with the components of the velocity field as linear functions of the coordinates, and with parallel angular velocity and uniform vorticity. The dynamical behaviour of the ellipsoid is obtained by numerically integrating the relevant differential equations for different values of the initial angular velocity and vorticity. This behaviour is displayed by the (a ₁,a ₂) and (a ₁,a ₃) phase plots, where thea _i's (i = 1, 2, 3) are the semi-diameters, and by the graphs ofa ₁,a ₂,a ₃, the volume, and the angular velocity as functions of time.The dynamical behaviour of the nonequilibrium ellipsoid depends on the deviation of the angular momentum from its equilibrium value; for larger deviations, the oscillations are more nonperiodic with larger amplitudes.An initially ellipsoidal configuration always remains ellipsoidal, but it cannot become spheroidal about its rotation axis, though it may become spheroidal instantaneously about either one of the other two principal axes.For an ellipsoid approaching axisymmetry about its axis of rotation, the angular velocity can suddenly increase by a large amount. Thus if an astrophysical object can be modelled by a nonequilibrium ellipsoid, it may occasionally undergo sudden large increases of angular velocity.