Static stress changes and fault interaction during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence

We study the static stress changes caused by moderatemagnitude earthquakes that occurred in Umbria-Marcheduring a seismic sequence which started on September3, 1997, with a M_L 4.7 foreshock and consisted ofeight earthquakes whose magnitudes range between 5.0and 6.0. The earthquakes occurred on normal faultsstriking in the Apennine direction and dipping at lowangles towards the SW. The goal is to verify if stresschanges induced by each mainshock can explain theoccurrence of subsequent events. Our results show thatthe foreshock slightly increased the Coulomb stress onthe first mainshock fault plane. The distribution ofseismicity that followed the foreshock is clustered inthe area of Coulomb stress increase comprised betweenthe two faults which ruptured in opposite directionsduring the two largest shocks of September 26. Thelocations and the geometry of the three largestearthquakes agree well with the pattern of Coulombstress changes suggesting elastic interaction betweenthese faults. However, we were not able to model thewhole sequence of M_L 5.0 events in terms ofCoulomb stress changes. The difficulties are due tothe similarity of fault plane solutions for eventslocated very close to each other and in the hangingwall of the mainshock rupture planes. Our results showthat normal stress changes agree better with thespatial pattern of the whole sequence of moderatemagnitude events. If previous ruptures unclamp thefault planes of subsequent earthquakes, fluid flow canplay a dominant role in promoting earthquakes duringthe seismic sequence.     

Effects of cluster galaxies on arc statistics

We present the results of a set of numerical simulations evaluating the effect of cluster galaxies on arc statistics.
We perform a first set of gravitational lensing simulations using three independent projections for each of nine different galaxy clusters obtained from N -body simulations. The simulated clusters consist of dark matter only. We add a population of galaxies to each cluster, mimicking the observed luminosity function and the spatial galaxy distribution, and repeat the lensing simulations including the effects of cluster galaxies, which themselves act as individual lenses. Each galaxy is represented by a spherical Navarro, Frenk & White density profile.
We consider the statistical distributions of the properties of the gravitational arcs produced by our clusters with and without galaxies. We find that the cluster galaxies do not introduce perturbations strong enough to significantly change the number of arcs and the distributions of lengths, widths, curvature radii and length-to-width ratios of long arcs. We find some changes to the distribution of short-arc properties in the presence of cluster galaxies. The differences appear in the distribution of curvature radii for arc lengths smaller than 12 arcsec, while the distributions of lengths, widths and length-to-width ratios are significantly changed only for arcs shorter than 4 arcsec.     

Fluid geochemistry of natural manifestations from the Southern Poroto–Rungwe hydrothermal system (Tanzania): Preliminary conceptual model

The South Poroto–Rungwe geothermal field, in the northern part of the Malawi rift, Tanzania divides in two main areas. The relatively high altitude northern area around the main Ngozi, Rungwe, Tukuyu and Kyejo volcanoes, is characterised by cold and gas-rich springs. In contrast, hot springs occur in the southern and low-altitude area between the Kyela and Livingstone faults. The isotopic signature of the almost stagnant, cold springs of the Northern district is clearly influenced by H₂O–CO_2(g) exchange as evidenced from negative oxygen-shifts in the order of few deltas permil. In contrast, the isotopic signature of waters discharged from the hot springs of the Southern district is markedly less affected by the H₂O–CO_2(g) interaction. This evidence is interpreted as an effect of the large, permanent outflow of these springs, which supports the hypothesis of a regional-scale recharge of the major thermal springs. Measurements of carbon isotope variations of the dissolved inorganic carbon of waters and CO_2(g) from the Northern and Southern springs support a model of CO_2(g)-driven reactivity all over the investigated area. Our combined chemical and isotopic results show that the composition of hot springs is consistent with a mixing between (i) cold surface fresh (SFW) and (ii) Deep Hot Mineralised (DHMW) Water, indicating that the deep-originated fluids also supply most of the aqueous species dissolved in the surface waters used as local potable water. Based on geothermometric approaches, the temperature of the deep hydrothermal system has been estimated to be higher than 110 °C up to 185 °C, in agreement with the geological and thermal setting of the Malawi rift basin. Geochemical data point to (i) a major upflow zone of geothermal fluids mixed with shallow meteoric waters in the Southern part of the province, and (ii) gas absorption phenomena in the small, perched aquifers of the Northern volcanic highlands.     

Innovation benefits from nuclear phase-out: can they compensate the costs?

This paper investigates whether an inefficient allocation of abatement due to constraints on the use of currently available low carbon mitigation options can promote innovation in new technologies and have a positive impact on welfare. We focus on the case of a nuclear power phase-out and endogenous technical change in energy efficiency and alternative low carbon technologies. The research is inspired by the re-thinking about nuclear power deployment which took place in some countries, especially in Western Europe, after the Fukushima accident in March 2011. The analysis uses an Integrated Assessment Model, WITCH, which features multiple externalities related to greenhouse gas emissions and innovation market failures. Our results show that phasing out nuclear power stimulates R&D investments and deployment of technologies with large learning potential. The resulting technology benefits that would not otherwise occur due to intertemporal and international externalities almost completely offset the economic costs of foregoing nuclear power. The extent of technology benefits depends on the stringency of the climate policy and is distributed unevenly across countries.     

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.     

The summertime ��heat�� low over Pakistan/northwestern India: evolution and origin

A deep low in sea-level pressure is present from May to September over Pakistan and northwestern India (hereafter, the Pak?CIndia low). It is often referred as the ??heat?? low to convey the significance of surface thermal effects reckoned to be important for its origin. The present analysis, rooted in observations and diagnostic modeling, suggests that the Pak?CIndia low is influenced both by regional and remote forcing. Regionally, the influence of Hindu Kush mountains is found to be stronger than the impact of land-surface heating and attendant sensible heating of the planetary boundary layer, questioning the suitability of the ??heat?? label in canonical references to this circulation feature. Observational analysis indicates that the notable May-to-June deepening of the Pak?CIndia low and its further deepening in July, however, arises from remote forcing??the development of monsoon deep-convection over the Bay of Bengal and eastern India in June and July. It is hypothesized that the associated upstream descent over Iran?CTurkmenistan?CAfghanistan (i.e. east of the Caspian Sea) and related low-level northerlies over the Elburz?CZagros?CHindu Kush mountains contribute to the strengthening of the Pak?CIndia low in June (and July) from interaction with regional orography.     

The Averno 2 fissure eruption: a recent small-size explosive event at the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

The Averno 2 eruption (3,700 ± 50 a B.P.) was an explosive low-magnitude event characterized by magmatic and phreatomagmatic explosions, generating mainly fall and surge beds, respectively. It occurred in the Western sector of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campanian Region, South Italy) at the intersection of two active fault systems, oriented NE and NW. The morphologically complex crater area, largely filled by the Averno lake, resulted from vent activation and migration along the NE-trending fault system. The eruption generated a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits, including pumice fall deposits in the lower portion, and prevailing surge beds in the intermediate-upper portion. The pyroclastic sequence has been studied through stratigraphical, morphostructural and petrological investigations, and subdivided into three members named A through C. Member A was emplaced during the first phase of the eruption mainly by magmatic explosions which generated columns reaching a maximum height of 10 km. During this phase the eruption reached its climax with a mass discharge rate of 3.2 10⁶ kg/s. Intense fracturing and fault activation favored entry of a significant amount of water into the system, which produced explosions driven by variably efficient water-magma interaction. These explosions generated wet to dry surge deposits that emplaced Member B and C, respectively. Isopachs and isopleths maps, as well as areal distribution of ballistic fragments and facies variation of surge deposits allow definition of four vents that opened along a NE oriented, 2 km long fissure. The total volume of magma extruded during the eruption has been estimated at about 0.07 km³ (DRE). The erupted products range in composition from initial, weakly peralkaline alkali-trachyte, to last-emplaced alkali-trachyte. Isotopic data and modeling suggest that mixing occurred during the Averno 2 eruption between a more evolved, less radiogenic stored magma, and a less evolved, more radiogenic magma that entered the shallow reservoir to trigger the eruption. The early phases of the eruption, during which the vent migrated from SW to the center of the present lake, were fed by the more evolved, uppermost magma, while the following phases extruded the less evolved, lowermost magma. Integration of the geological and petrological results suggests that the Averno 2 complex eruption was fed from a dyke-shaped shallow reservoir intruded into the NE-SW fault system bordering to the west the La Starza resurgent block, within the caldera floor.