Probing the Nekhoroshev Stability of Asteroids

We apply the spectral formulation of the Nekhoroshev theorem to investigate the long-term stability of real main belt asteroids. We find numerical indication that some asteroids are in the so-called Nekhoroshev stability regime, that is they are on chaotic orbits but their motion is stable over very long times. We have analyzed the motion of bodies in different regions of the belt, to assess the sensitivity of our method. We found that it allows us to clearly discriminate between different dynamical regimes, such as the one described by the Nekhoroshev stability, the one well described by the KAM theory, and the unstable chaotic regime in which diffusion in phase space can be detected over time spans much shorter than the age of the solar system.     

Numerical modelling of regional faults in land subsidence prediction above gas/oil reservoirs

The stress variation induced by gas/oil production may activate pre‐existing regional faults. This may enhance the expected land subsidence due to the generation of mechanically weak points close to the producing field. A class of elasto‐plastic interface elements (IE), specifically designed to address the mechanical behaviour of faults over a regional scale, is integrated into a finite element (FE) geomechanical model and used to investigate the role exerted by active faults in anthropogenic land subsidence. The importance of regional faults depends on a variety of factors including depth of the depleted reservoir, fault number, orientation and size, geomechanical properties of porous medium, pore pressure drawdown induced by fluid production, etc. With the aid of some representative examples, a useful indication is provided as to where and how fault activation may influence both magnitude and extent of the land subsidence bowl above producing gas/oil reservoirs, pointing to a generally limited impact on the ground surface. The simulation of a real faulted gas reservoir in a complex 3‐D setting shows that the proposed IE can be simply and efficiently incorporated into a FE geomechanical model, thus improving the quality of the stress and displacement prediction. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological regimes in different slope environments and implications on rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides

Natural Hazards - Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based...     

Parallel solution to ill‐conditioned FE geomechanical problems

Parallel computers are potentially very attractive for the implementation of large size geomechanical models. One of the main difficulties of parallelization, however, relies on the efficient solution of the frequently ill‐conditioned algebraic system arising from the linearization of the discretized equilibrium equations. While very efficient preconditioners have been developed for sequential computers, not much work has been devoted to parallel solution algorithms in geomechanics. The present study investigates the state‐of‐the‐art performance of the factorized sparse approximate inverse (FSAI) as a preconditioner for the iterative solution of ill‐conditioned geomechanical problems. Pre‐and post‐filtration strategies are experimented with to increase the FSAI efficiency. Numerical results show that FSAI exhibits a promising potential for parallel geomechanical models mainly because of its almost ideal scalability. With the present formulation, however, at least 4 or 8 processors are required in the selected test cases to outperform one of the most efficient sequential algorithms available for FE geomechanics, i.e. the multilevel incomplete factorization (MIF). Further research is needed to improve the FSAI efficiency with a more effective selection of the preconditioner non‐zero pattern. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Channel mobility drives a diverse stratigraphic architecture in the dryland Mojave River (California,USA)

The links between flood frequency and rates of channel migration are poorly defined in the ephemeral rivers typical of arid regions. Exploring these links in desert fluvial landscapes would augment our understanding of watershed biogeochemistry and river morphogenesis on early Earth (i.e. prior to the greening of landmasses). Accordingly, we analyse the Mojave River (California), one of the largest watercourses in the Great Basin of the western United States. We integrate discharge records with channel-migration rates derived from dynamic time-warping analysis and chronologically calibrated subsidence rates, thereby constraining the river's formative conditions. Our results reveal a slight downstream decrease in bankfull discharge on the Mojave River, rather than the downstream increase typically exhibited by perennial streams. Yet, the number of days per year during which the channel experiences bankfull or higher stages is roughly maintained along the river's length. Analysis of historical peak flood records suggests that the incidence of channel-formative events responds to modulation in watershed runoff due to the precipitation in the river's headwaters over decades to centuries. Our integrated analysis finally suggests that, while maintaining hydraulic geometries that are fully comparable with many other rivers worldwide, ephemeral desert rivers akin to the Mojave are capable of generating a surprisingly wide range of depositional geometries in the stratigraphic record. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The web of three-planet resonances in the outer Solar System

In this paper we numerically detect the web of three-planet resonances (i.e., resonances among mean anomalies, nodes and perihelia of three planets) with respect to the variation of the semi-major axis of Saturn and Jupiter, in a model including the planets from Jupiter to Neptune. The measure confirms the relevance of these resonances in the long-term evolution of the outer Solar System and provides a technique to identify some of the related coefficients.     

A method for na-tech risk assessment as supporting tool for land use planning mitigation strategies

Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as 2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core.     

On the uniformity of anthropogenic Venice uplift

A programme of Venice uplift because of seawater injection into a 600–800 m deep brackish aquifer underlying the lagoon has recently been advanced. As the actual spatial variability of the hydro‐geological parameters is to a large extent unknown, a controversial issue concerns the 25–30 cm heave prediction with the possible generation of differential displacements that might jeopardize the integrity of the architectural patrimony. It is shown that significant differential displacements have occurred in Venice in the past and are still presently occurring as evidenced by SAR interferometry. The results of a stochastic analysis addressing the variability of the hydraulic conductivity of the injected formation indicate that even a highly uneven aquifer expansion does not migrate to ground surface because of the smoothing effect exerted by the overburden. The predicted differential displacements are well below the values Venice is experiencing. Any a priori alarmism appears to be unfounded and unjustified.     

The Late Pleistocene clastic deposits in the Romito Cave,southern Italy: a proxy record of environmental changes and human presence

Clastic sediments deposited in caves and rock shelters bear peculiar sedimentological characteristics and have seldom been considered as a high‐resolution proxy record of climatic or environmental changes. The Romito Cave has its entrance at 275 m above sea level, about 25 km from the Tyrrhenian coast of Calabria, southern Italy. New archaeological excavation performed since 2000 has revealed a sedimentary succession spanning the record of Gravettian to Late Epigravettian cultures (Late Pleistocene). The present study focuses on the lower part (2.5 m thick) of the succession, where three main unconformity‐bounded stratigraphic units have been recognised (labelled RM1–3). Each unit consists of water‐lain deposits indicating high‐ to low‐competence flow, capped with anthropogenic deposits. The gradual deactivation and reactivation of the water drainage between 23 475 ± 190 and 16 250 ± 500 cal. a BP is correlated with regional precipitation changes due to the onset of dry climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the deactivation of cave drainage after the deposition of unit RM3, around 15 400 ± 500 cal. a BP, deviates from the regional hydrological trend of progressively increasing water discharges and is attributed to the drainage cut‐off by probable cave wall collapses. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.