The Impact of Orographically-Induced Gravity Wave on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Southeast Kalimantan Island

Precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite indicate that the southeastern area of Kalimantan (Borneo) Island receives much less rainfall than elsewhere on the island during the period from July to October.Results from sur-face meteorological observations show that the diurnal cycle of rainfall differs greatly between the eastern and western coasts of the island.Rainfall on the western coast of the island is frequent in the afternoon and evening,whereas almost all rainfall on the eastern coast occurs in the morning.Meanwhile,the Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived precipitable water (PW) on the eastern coast shows a substantial decrease in moisture in the af-ternoon and evening.Numerical experiments with a mesoscale model reveal that gravity waves driven by di-urnal heating of the elevated land surface of the moun-tains on Sulawesi Island,which lies approximately 300 kilometers to the east of Kalimantan Island,significantly affect the diurnal cycle of rainfall over southeast Kali-mantan Island.     

Iterative deconvolution of complex body waves from great earthquakes—the Tokachi-Oki earthquake of 1968

A method of body-wave inversion is developed in an attempt to extract the information about asperities or barriers in a fault zone. A sequence of point sources, each being characterized with the seismic moment, the onset time and the location, are iteratively derived from observed records at multi-stations, where the two-dimensional extent of the source location is taken into account. A modification is made of the iterative method of Kikuchi and Kanamori on the formulation of inversion procedure to facilitate the computation.Using this method, we analyse long period P waves of the Tokachi-Oki earthquake of 1968 (M_w = 8.2) and obtain several significant subevents with time durations of ～ 10 s. Their spatio-temporal distribution shows that the rupture process consists of three characteristic stages: (A) a stage of introductory rupture, (B) a stage of main rupture and (C) a stage of aftershocks. The main rupture takes place in the form of clustering around a few sites of the fault plane. The largest subevent occurs in the northwestern corner. The stress drop associated with this event is estimated to be ～ 200 bars, one order of magnitude higher than the stress drop averaged over the entire fault plane. The sum of the seismic moments of the individual subevents amounts to 2.3 × 10²⁸ dyn. cm which approximately coincides with the one estimated from the analysis of long-period surface waves. This implies that the source of the Tokachi-Oki earthquake consists of several major subevents with time durations of ～ 10 s in addition to other minor subevents.     

Formation of bipolar flow by the stellar wind embeded in molecular disk

The interaction of the isotropic stellar wind with the rotating isothermal cloud surrounding the young star is investigated. The density distribution of the cloud is taken as that for the equilibrium state of the rotating isothermal cloud modified by adding the rarefied interstellar gas in the polar region. The development of the shock envelope and the structure of the shell induced by the stellar wind are obtained. It is shown that the envelope of the shock front elongates and opens to the polar direction with half opening angle of about 20 degrees resulting the bipolar flow which is able to reproduce well the observed properties for the outflow in the bipolar sources.     

Verifying optimality of rainfed agriculture using a stochastic model for drought occurrence

It may be paradoxical but subsistence rainfed agriculture is the predominant source of food in Sub-Saharan Africa where the production uncertainty is associated with the stochastic nature of rainfall. This paper attempts to comprehend the rationale of this situation by a mathematical approach. Considering the level of drought severity as the zero-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, optimality of rainfed agriculture is investigated in the context of stochastic control theory. Occurrence of drought terminating growth of crops is modelled with the concept of first exit time. A stochastic control problem allowing for virtual cost of irrigation, water stress to crops, and benefits of farming is formulated with irrigation effort as the control variable. The Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation governing the optimal control is studied to identify the set of cost functions optimizing rainfed agriculture in an inverse problem approach. Data and information were collected in the coastal savanna agro-ecological zone of Ghana, to identify model parameters, formulate the stochastic control problem, solve the inverse problem, and then verify optimality of rainfed agriculture. The results indicated that rainfed agriculture is not optimal when the crop is more tolerant to water stress.     

Statistical Analysis of Ground Motions Estimated on the Basis of a Recipe for Strong-motion Prediction: Approach to Quantitative Evaluation of Average and Standard Deviation of Ground Motion Distribution

For seismic hazard assessment, we study the variabilities of predicted ground motion on the basis of a ??recipe for predicting strong ground motion?? and propose approximations to evaluate spatial distributions of the standard deviation for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0 in the estimated ground motions. For strong-motion prediction, we use a finite difference method for a long period range (>1.0?s). To estimate variabilities, a Monte Carlo simulation is used and we adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique to reduce computations. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and site characteristics. Model sources are assumed for dip-slip fault and strike-slip fault, and the variabilities are considered for parameters such as asperity location, rupture starting point, average asperity slip contrast, stress drop and rupture velocity. On the target site, 100 instances of PGV, R1.0, R2.0 and R5.0 data are obtained for 100 sets of parameters and an average and a standard deviation of the log normal distribution, corresponding to the variability for ground motion estimation, are statistically analyzed. For all target sites uniformly distributed in the area around the faults, the average and the standard deviation are statistically analyzed and spread to spatial maps. It is found that the spatial distributions of standard deviation values for both the dip-slip and strike-slip faults are not uniform. Approximations are attempted to develop a quantitative evaluation for spatial distributions of the standard deviation of the log normal distribution for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0. The spatial distributions by these approximations are considered to almost reconstruct the characteristics, which are statistically analyzed by the finite difference method.     

A deep section of accretionary complex: Susunai Complex in Sakhalin Island, Northwest Pacific Margin

Abstract A deep section of accretionary complex, the metamorphosed Susunai Complex, is observed on Sakhalin Is., Russia. High pressure part of pumpellyite-actinolite facies metavolcanics, metacherts and metapelites are well exposed and constitute a tectonic pile preserving primary structures related to underplating of the oceanic crust. Three stages of deformation, D₁ through D₃, suggest successive deformation during subduction, underplating and exhumation of the complex. Oceanic material in the complex is more abundant than other well documented ancient accretionary complexes (e.g. the Shimanto Belt in southwest Japan and the Ghost Rocks Formation in Alaska), which were shallowly underplated. At Susunai, deep down-stepping of a décollément has scraped off the upper part of the oceanic crust, primarily the pillowed basalt horizon. This down-stepping results from crustal weakening as overpressured water is released from the fractured oceanic crust during metamorphism.     

Strength estimation and stress–dilatancy characteristics of natural gas hydrate-bearing sediments under high effective confining pressure

Acta Geotechnica - Gas production by depressurization can significantly increase the effective stress in hydrate-bearing sediments. Therefore, strength and deformation characteristics of sediments...     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112001302

We present relative sea level （RSL） curves in Antarctica derived from glacial isostatic adjustment （GIA）predictions based on the melting scenarios of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM）given in previous works.Simultaneously,Holocene-age RSL observations obtained at the raised beaches along the coast of Antarctica are shown to be in agreement with the GIA predictions.The differences from previously published ice-loading models regarding the spatial distribution and total mass change of the melted ice are significant.These models were also derived from GIA modelling; the variations can be attributed to the lack of geological and geographical evidence regarding the history of crustal movement due to ice sheet evolution.Next,we summarise the previously published ice load models and demonstrate the RSL curves based on combinations of different ice and earth models.The RSL curves calculated by GIA models indicate that the model dependence of both the ice and earth models is significantly large at several sites where RSL observations were obtained.In particular,GIA predictions based on the thin lithospheric thickness show the spatial distributions that are dependent on the melted ice thickness at each sites.These characteristics result from the short-wavelength deformation of the Earth.However,our predictions strongly suggest that it is possible to find the average ice model despite the use of the different models of lithospheric thickness.By sea level and crustal movement observations,we can deduce the geometry of the post-LGM ice sheets in detail and remove the GIA contribution from the crustal deformation and gravity change observed by space geodetic techniques,such as GPS and GRACE,for the estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change associated with recent global warming.