Three-dimensional non-linear soil–building interaction analysis in the lakebed zone of Mexico city during the hypothetical Guerrero earthquake

The 1985 Michoacan earthquake (M=8·1) caused very severe damage to mid-rise buildings in the lakebed zone of Mexico City, which is approximately 400 km from the epicentre in the Pacific Ocean. In the present study, we perform a three-dimensional (3-D) non-linear soil–building interaction analysis for several types of low- to high-rise buildings during the hypothetical Guerrero earthquake, and try to understand the real cause of heavy damage to mid-rise buildings in the lakebed zone during the 1985 Michoacan earthquake. We make a reasonable estimation of the input earthquake motions and the local site effects. The non-linear soil-building interaction analysis explains the damage pattern observed during the 1985 earthquake, although other analyses do not. We realize that all the factors from the earthquake source to the building superstructure must be taken into account adequately. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming

In this the second of a two-part study, we examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing contrast of the land–sea surface air temperature (SAT) in summertime over the Far East, as observed in recent decades and revealed in future climate projections obtained from a series of transient warming and sensitivity experiments conducted under the umbrella of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. On a global perspective, a strengthening of land–sea SAT contrast in the transient warming simulations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is attributed to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). However, in boreal summer, the strengthened contrast over the Far East is reproduced only by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration. In response to SST increase alone, the tropospheric warming over the interior of the mid- to high-latitude continents including Eurasia are weaker than those over the surrounding oceans, leading to a weakening of the land–sea SAT contrast over the Far East. Thus, the increasing contrast and associated change in atmospheric circulation over East Asia is explained by CO₂-induced continental warming. The degree of strengthening of the land–sea SAT contrast varies in different transient warming scenarios, but is reproduced through a combination of the CO₂-induced positive and SST-induced negative contributions to the land–sea contrast. These results imply that changes of climate patterns over the land–ocean boundary regions are sensitive to future scenarios of CO₂ concentration pathways including extreme cases.     

Simulation of two types of El Niño from different convective parameters

Many recent studies have reported the presence of two types of El Niño events in observation: Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño and Warm Pool (WP) El Niño. We investigate the sensitivity of a model simulating two types of El Niño by changing a convective triggering parameter (Tokioka parameter). When deep convections are highly suppressed with a large Tokioka parameter, the model is capable of simulating distinct two-types of El Niño. However, the model has a problem in simulating two-types of El Niño distinctively when the Tokioka parameter is small, because the location of the maximum precipitation anomaly related to the CT El Niño is significantly shifted westward, leading to an atmospheric response pattern similar to that of the WP El Niño. Our results suggest that the mean precipitation over the eastern equatorial Pacific and the resultant zonal distribution in atmospheric feedback associated with ENSO can be one of the crucial factors for simulating two-types of El Niño.     

Kinematic analysis of ultrahigh-pressure–high-pressure metamorphic rocks in the Chaglinka–Kulet area of the Kokchetav Massif, Kazakhstan

Abstract The central part of the Kokchetav Massif is exposed in the Chaglinka–Kulet area, northern Kazakhstan. The ultrahigh-pressure–high-pressure (UHP–HP) metamorphic belt in this area is composed of four subhorizontal lithological units (Unit I–IV) metamorphosed under different pressure–temperature (P–T) conditions. The coesite- and diamond-bearing Unit II, which consists mainly of whiteschist and eclogite blocks, is tectonically sandwiched between the amphibolite-dominant Unit I on the bottom and the orthogneiss-dominant Unit III on the top. Total combined thickness of these units is less than 2 km. The rocks of the UHP–HP metamorphic belt are affected by at least four deformational events post-dating peak metamorphism: (i) The earliest penetrative deformation is characterized by non-coaxial ductile flow in a NW–SE direction. The shear sense indicators in oriented samples from Unit I provide consistent top-to-the-northwest motions and those from Unit III provide top-to-the-southeast, south or south-west motions; (ii) Upright folds with subhorizontal enveloping surface refold earlier foliations including shear-indicators throughout the metamorphic belt; (iii) The third stage of deformation is denoted by large-scale bending around a subvertical axis; and (iv) Late localized fault (or shear) zones cut all earlier structures. The fault zones have subvertical shear planes and their displacements are essentially strike-slip in manner. The subhorizontal structure and opposite shear directions between Unit I and Unit III during the earlier deformation stage suggest north-westward extrusion of UHP Unit II.     

Verification of Net Primary Production Estimation Method in the Mongolian Plateau Using Landsat ETM＋ Data

We plan to estimate global net primary production (NPP) of vegetation using the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite-Ⅱ (ADEOS-Ⅱ) Global Imager (GLI) multi-spectral data. We derive an NPP estimation algorithm from ground measurement data on temperate plants in Japan. By the algorithm, we estimate NPP using a vegetation index based on pattern decomposition (VIPD) for the Mongolian Plateau. The VIPD is derived from Landsat ETM multi-spectral data, and the resulting NPP estimation is compared with ground data measured in a semi-arid area of Mongolia. The NPP estimation derived from satellite remote sensing data agrees with the ground measurement data within the error range of 15% when all above-ground vegetation NPP is calculated for different vegetation classifications.     

Crystal chemistry of volcanic allanites indicative of naturally induced oxidation-dehydrogenation

The crystal chemistry of volcanic allanites from both the Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT), Sumatra, Indonesia and SK100 volcanic ash beds (SK100-VAB), Niigata, Japan has been examined by electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopic analysis (FTIR), and single-crystal structure analysis. In the FTIR study, based on the Diamond ATR accessory, YTT and SK100- VAB allanites were observed to have different OH contents, respectively: the former has 0.64 wt% H₂O (OH: 0.40 apfu.), while the latter has 1.65 wt% H₂O (OH: 1.00 apfu.). The crystal structures of these two allanites have been refined to individual R indices (3.64 and 4.25) based on 1350 observed reflections (|Fo| > 4sig|Fo|) measured using a single-crystal diffractometer with MoKα X-radiation. The OH-poor YTT allanite has a shorter b axis, a longer c axis, and larger β value than the relatively OH-rich SK100-VAB one. The bond valence sums of O4 (accepter oxygen for H atom) and O10 (donor oxygen for H atom) are 1.962 and 1.709 v.u. for YTT allanite (valence sum: 3.671 v.u.) and 1.754 and 1.271 v.u. for SK100-VAB one (valence sum: 3.025 v.u.). The difference from the ideal total bond valence value (4.00 v.u.) of O4 and O10 in YTT allanite (0.33 v.u.) is smaller than that in SK100-VAB (0.98 v.u.). These difference values are also broadly consistent with the corresponding differences in OH content between the YTT (OH: 0.40 apfu.) and SK100-VAB allanites (OH: 1.00 apfu.) determined by FTIR- ATR. Chemical analyses, FTIR-ATR and crystal structure refinement of YTT and SK100-VAB allanites yielded the following crystal chemical formula: YTT: (Ca_0.83Mn²⁺ _0.06Fe²⁺ _0.11)(La_0.24Ce_0.32Pr_0.04Nd_0.11Sm_0.02Th_0.04Ca_0.21)(Al_0.73Fe³⁺ _0.19Ti_0.08)(Al_0.89Fe³⁺ _0.11)(Fe²⁺ _0.22Fe³⁺ _0.62Mg_0.16)(SiO₄)Si₂O₇O_1.6(OH)_0.4, SK100-VAB: (Ca_0.81Fe²⁺ _0.13Mn²⁺ _0.06)(La_0.22Ce_0.34Pr_0.05Nd_0.13Sm_0.02Th_0.02Ca_0.22)(Al_0.76Fe³⁺ _0.19Ti_0.05)Al_1.00(Fe²⁺ _0.73Fe³⁺ _0.17Mg_0.10)(Si_0.96Al_0.04O₄)Si₂O₇O(OH). Therefore, it is concluded that welding of the Youngest Toba Tuff caused the following post-crystallization changes to occur in YTT allanite: oxidation of Fe²⁺ to Fe³⁺, release of H₂, and the concomitant replacement of OH^? by O^2?. These oxidation and dehydrogenation processes advanced during the welding to thereby produce oxyallanite. Oxyallanite had been reported only in laboratory studies where it was produced by heating natural allanite. Our report on natural oxyallanite suggests that it may be present in other welded silicic volcanic rocks as well.     

Effects of a marine ridge to western boundary current in a three-dimensional source-sink flow model

A numerical experiment is made with a three-dimensional source-sink flow model in order to study effects of a marine ridge to the western boundary current. The model represents the Kuroshio current crossing the Izu Ridge which has a submarine narrow passage. It is indicated that most of the surface water of the western boundary current crosses the ridge through the narrow passage. A part of the surface water circulates around a warm eddy formed in an upstream region of the ridge. A water below the thermocline makes a long detour around the ridge and forms a subsurface northward current along the eastern slope of the ridge.     

Partitioning of heavy metals into mineral and organic fractions in a sediment core sample from Osaka Bay

Partitioning of copper, zinc, iron and manganese into oxide, sulfide, organic and silicate fractions has been determined with a selective chemical leaching technique on sediment samples from a core collected in Osaka Bay. The samples have been dated by the²¹⁰Pb method. Most of the copper and zinc in the polluted surface sediment layer are contained in both oxide and sulfide fractions. This suggests that the transformation of oxides and hydroxides to sulfides under anoxic conditions within the sediment is significant for the fixation of copper and zinc discharged through human activities into the sediment. Manganese is apparently enriched in oxide and hydroxide fractions of the surface layer due to the post-depositional migration of manganese within the sediment. The copper, zinc and manganese contents of the 30 % H₂O₂ soluble fraction (mostly organic fraction) decrease with depth in the sediment core, and correlate significantly with the organic carbon content. The heavy metal (Cu, Zn, Fe and Mn) contents of the silicate fraction, without exchangeable sites, are almost constant with depth.     

Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2: its timescale and the role of land–sea contrast

Physical processes responsible for tropospheric adjustment to increasing carbon dioxide concentration are investigated using abrupt CO₂ quadrupling experiments of a general circulation model (GCM) called the model for interdisciplinary research on climate version 5 with several configurations including a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM, atmospheric GCM, and aqua-planet model. A similar experiment was performed in weather forecast mode to explore timescales of the tropospheric adjustment. We found that the shortwave component of the cloud radiative effect (SWcld) reaches its equilibrium within 2 days of the abrupt CO₂ increase. The change in SWcld is positive, associated with reduced clouds in the lower troposphere due to warming and drying by instantaneous radiative forcing. A reduction in surface turbulent heat fluxes and increase of the near-surface stability result in shoaling of the marine boundary layer, which shifts the cloud layer downward. These changes are common to all experiments regardless of model configuration, indicating that the cloud adjustment is primarily independent of air–sea coupling and land–sea thermal contrast. The role of land in cloud adjustment is further examined by a series of idealized aqua-planet experiments, with a rectangular continent of varying width. Land surface warming from quadrupled CO₂ induces anomalous upward motion, which increases high cloud and associated negative SWcld over land. The geographic distribution of continents regulates the spatial pattern of the cloud adjustment. A larger continent produces more negative SWcld, which partly compensates for a positive SWcld over the ocean. The land-induced negative adjustment is a factor but not necessary requirement for the tropospheric adjustment.     

Role of end-use technologies in long-term GHG reduction scenarios developed with the BET model

In this study, we develop a new integrated assessment model called the BET model (Basic Energy systems, Economy, Environment, and End-use Technology Model). It is a multi-regional, global model based on Ramsey’s optimal growth theory and includes not only traditional end-use technologies but also advanced end-use technologies such as heat-pump water heaters and electric vehicles. Using the BET model, we conduct simulations and obtain the following results. (1) Advanced end-use technologies have an important role in containing carbon prices as well as GDP losses when GHG (greenhouse gas) constraints are stringent. (2) Electrification based on energy services progresses rapidly in scenarios with stringent GHG constraints. This is because electricity can be supplied by various methods of non-fossil power generation, and advanced end-use technologies can drastically improve energy-to-service efficiencies. The BET’s results indicate the importance of analyses that systematically combine environmental constraints, end-use technologies, supply energy technologies, and economic development.