<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan: precursors uncovered by natural time analysis

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M _W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.     

Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning

The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.     

Buruanga peninsula and Antique Range: Two contrasting terranes in Northwest Panay,Philippines featuring an arc–continent collision zone

Alternating chert–clastic sequences juxtaposed with limestone blocks, which are units typical of accretionary complexes, constitute the Buruanga peninsula. New lithostratigraphic units are proposed in this study: the Unidos Formation (Jurassic chert sequence), the Saboncogon Formation (Jurassic siliceous mudstone–terrigenous mudstone and quartz‐rich sandstone), the Gibon Formation (Jurassic(?) bedded pelagic limestone), the Libertad Metamorphics (Jurassic–Cretaceous slate, phyllite, and schist) and the Buruanga Formation (Pliocene–Pleistocene reefal limestone). The first three sedimentary sequences in the Buruanga peninsula show close affinity with the ocean plate stratigraphy of the North Palawan terrane in Busuanga Island: Lower–Middle Jurassic chert sequences overlain by Middle–Upper Jurassic clastics, juxtaposed with pelagic limestone. Moreover, the JR5–JR6 (Callovian to Oxfordian) siliceous mudstone of the Saboncogon Formation in the Buruanga peninsula correlates with the JR5–JR6 siliceous mudstone of the Guinlo Formation in the Middle Busuanga Belt. These findings suggest that the Buruanga peninsula may be part of the North Palawan terrane. The rocks of the Buruanga peninsula completely differ from the Middle Miocene basaltic to andesitic pyroclastic and lava flow deposits with reefal limestone and arkosic sandstone of the Antique Range. Thus, the previously suggested boundary between the Palawan microcontinental block and the Philippine Mobile Belt in the central Philippines, which is the suture zone between the Buruanga peninsula and the Antique Range, is confirmed. This boundary is similarly considered as the collision zone between them.     

Influence of landscape restoration and degradation on storm surge and waves in southern Louisiana

The purpose of this investigation was to examine storm surge and wave reduction benefits of different environmental restoration features (marsh restoration and barrier island changes), as well as the impact of future wetland degradation on local surge and wave conditions. Storm surge simulations of two representative hurricanes were performed using the ADCIRC storm surge model with the inclusion of radiation stress gradients from the STWAVE nearshore wave model. Coupled model simulations were made for a number of landscape configurations that involved both restored and degraded wetland features. The impact of barrier island condition on hurricane surge and waves was also evaluated. Effects of landscape features were represented by changes in elevation and frictional resistance. Restoration and degradation of marsh resulted in decreases (for restoration cases) and increases (for degradation cases) in both surge and waves. The magnitude of change was correlated with the magnitude of the horizontal extent and elevation changes in the marsh. In general, the wave change patterns are consistent with the water level changes. Deflation of the Chandeleur Islands (barrier island chain) resulted in slightly increased surge. Results suggest that coastal marsh does have surge and wave reduction potential. Results also indicate that the impact of the landscape features is amplified in areas where there are levee “pockets.” Barrier islands and coastal ridges reduce wave heights, even if in a degraded condition and thus can reduce wave energy in wetland areas, protecting them from erosion.     

Connecting atmospheric science and atmospheric models for aerocapture at Titan and the outer planets

Many atmospheric measurement systems, such as the sounding instruments on Voyager, gather atmospheric information in the form of temperature versus pressure level. In these terms, there is considerable consistency among the mean atmospheric profiles of the outer planets Jupiter through Neptune, including Titan. On a given planet or on Titan, the range of variability of temperature versus pressure level due to seasonal, latitudinal, and diurnal variations is also not large. However, many engineering needs for atmospheric models relate not to temperature versus pressure level but atmospheric density versus geometric altitude. This need is especially true for design and analysis of aerocapture systems. Drag force available for aerocapture is directly proportional to atmospheric density. Available aerocapture “corridor width” (allowable range of atmospheric entry angle) also depends on height rate of change of atmospheric density, as characterized by density scale height. Characteristics of hydrostatics and the gas law equation mean that relatively small systematic differences in temperature versus pressure profiles can integrate at high altitudes to very large differences in density versus altitude profiles. Thus, a given periapsis density required to accomplish successful aerocapture can occur at substantially different altitudes (∼150-300 km) on the various outer planets, and significantly different density scale heights (∼20-50 km) can occur at these periapsis altitudes. This paper will illustrate these effects and discuss implications for improvements in atmospheric measurements to yield significant impact on design of aerocapture systems for future missions to Titan and the outer planets. Relatively small-scale atmospheric perturbations, such as gravity waves, tides, and other atmospheric variations can also have significant effect on design details for aerocapture guidance and control systems. This paper will discuss benefits that would result from improved understanding of Titan and outer planetary atmospheric perturbation characteristics. Details of recent engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune will be presented, and effects of present and future levels of atmospheric uncertainty and variability characteristics will be examined.     

Twelve years of tracking 52-Hz whale calls from a unique source in the North Pacific

A unique whale call with 50–52 Hz emphasis from a single source has been tracked over 12 years in the central and eastern North Pacific. These calls, referred to as 52-Hz calls, were monitored and analyzed from acoustic data recorded by hydrophones of the US Navy Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) and other arrays. The calls were noticed first in 1989, and have been detected and tracked since 1992. No other calls with similar characteristics have been identified in the acoustic data from any hydrophone system in the North Pacific basin. Only one series of these 52-Hz calls has been recorded at a time, with no call overlap, suggesting that a single whale produced the calls. The calls were recorded from August to February with most in December and January. The species producing these calls is unknown. The tracks of the 52-Hz whale were different each year, and varied in length from 708 to 11,062 km with travel speeds ranging from 0.7 to 3.8 km/h. Tracks included (A) meandering over short ranges, (B) predominantly west-to-east movement, and (C) mostly north-to-south travel. These tracks consistently appeared to be unrelated to the presence or movement of other whale species (blue, fin and humpback) monitored year-round with the same hydrophones.     

Model-based remote sensing algorithms for particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Hydrographic data, including particulate organic carbon (POC) from the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NEGOM) study, were combined with remotely-sensed SeaWiFS data to estimate POC concentration using principal component analysis (PCA). The spectral radiance was extracted at each NEGOM station, digitized, and averaged. The mean value and spurious trends were removed from each spectrum. De-trended data included six wavelengths at 58 stations. The correlation between the weighting factors of the first six eigenvectors and POC concentration were applied using multiple linear regression. PCA algorithms based on the first three, four, and five modes accounted for 90, 95, and 98% of total variance and yielded significant correlations with POC with R ² = 0.89, 0.92, and 0.93. These full waveband approaches provided robust estimates of POC in various water types. Three different analyses (root mean square error, mean ratio and standard deviation) showed similar error estimates, and suggest that spectral variations in the modes defined by just the first four characteristic vectors are closely correlated with POC concentration, resulting in only negligible loss of spectral information from additional modes. The use of POC algorithms greatly increases the spatial and temporal resolution for interpreting POC cycling and can be extrapolated throughout and perhaps beyond the area of shipboard sampling.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.     

Diagenesis of vascular plant organic matter components during burial in lake sediments

Diagenetic changes are difficult to distinguish from variations in sources of organic matter to sediments. Organic geochemical comparisons of samples of wood, bark, and needles from a white spruce (Picea glauca) living today and one buried for 10,000 years in lake sediments have been used to identify the effects of diagenesis on vascular plant matter. Important biogeochemical changes are evident in the aged spruce components, even though the cellular structures of the samples are well preserved. Concentrations of total fatty acids dramatically diminish; unsaturated and shorter chainlength components are preferentially lost from the molecular distributions. Concentrations of total alcohols are similar in the modern and 10,000-year-old wood and bark but markedly lowered in the aged needles. Hydrocarbon concentrations and distributions show little diagenetic change in the 10,000-year-old plant materials. Cellulose components in the wood decrease relative to lignin components, although both types of materials remain in high concentration in comparison to other organic components. Aromatization of abietic acid proceeds more rapidly in buried spruce wood than in bark; retene is the dominant polyaromatic hydrocarbon in the aged wood. In contrast to the variety of changes evident in molecular compositions, neither ¹³C values nor C/N ratios differ significantly in the bulk organic matter of modern and aged spruce components.