Marine debris accumulation in the nearshore marine habitat of the endangered Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi 1999-2001

Large amounts of marine debris are present in shallow reefs adjacent to beach haulouts of the critically endangered Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi. These areas serve as seal pup nurseries, and injury and death caused by entanglement in marine debris are undermining population recovery efforts. We investigated the extent of this threat by measuring the accumulation of potentially entangling derelict fishing gear in nursery zones, 1999-2001. Plots of reef 1.0-1.3 km2 at three Northwestern Hawaiian Islands were initially cleaned of derelict fishing gear in 1999 then resurveyed in 2000 and 2001. Submerged debris densities across sites ranged from 16 to 165 debris items/km2. Resurveyed sites yielded annual marine debris accumulation rates from 0 to 141 debris items/km2. This large range was attributed to the physiography of reef areas surveyed. Trawl net webbing was significantly more common than other types of debris recovered and represented 84% of all debris encountered, suggesting that much of the debris originated from distant North Pacific Ocean fisheries. The likely source of most debris is the multinational trawl fisheries of the North Pacific Ocean. An international solution to this problem is needed. Targeted marine debris removal is a short-term, successful, entanglement mitigation strategy.     

MODFLOW 2000 head uncertainty,a first-order second moment method

A computationally efficient method to estimate the variance and covariance in piezometric head results computed through MODFLOW 2000 using a first-order second moment (FOSM) approach is presented. This methodology employs a first-order Taylor series expansion to combine model sensitivity with uncertainty in geologic data. MODFLOW 2000 is used to calculate both the ground water head and the sensitivity of head to changes in input data. From a limited number of samples, geologic data are extrapolated and their associated uncertainties are computed through a conditional probability calculation. Combining the spatially related sensitivity and input uncertainty produces the variance-covariance matrix, the diagonal of which is used to yield the standard deviation in MODFLOW 2000 head. The variance in piezometric head can be used for calibrating the model, estimating confidence intervals, directing exploration, and evaluating the reliability of a design. A case study illustrates the approach, where aquifer transmissivity is the spatially related uncertain geologic input data. The FOSM methodology is shown to be applicable for calculating output uncertainty for (1) spatially related input and output data, and (2) multiple input parameters (transmissivity and recharge).     

Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter correlation coefficients, but it required sensitivities that were one to two significant digits less accurate than those that required using parameter correlation coefficients; and (3) both the SVD and parameter correlation coefficients identified extremely correlated parameters better when the parameters were more equally sensitive. When the statistical measures fail, parameter correlation can be identified only by the tedious process of executing regression using different sets of starting values, or, in some circumstances, through graphs of the objective function.     

Deep learning neural networks for spatially explicit prediction of flash flood probability

Flood probability maps are essential for a range of applications, including land use planning and developing mitigation strategies and early warning systems. Th...     

Comparison of gravity anomaly between mature and immature intra-oceanic subduction zones in the western Pacific

The western Pacific hosts major subduction systems such as Izu–Bonin–Mariana and Tonga–Kermadec, but also less conspicuous systems such as Yap, Mussau and Hjort trenches which constitute the young, incomplete, or ultraslow-member in the evolutionary spectrum of subduction zones. We used satellite-derived gravity data to compare well-developed and immature subduction systems. It is shown that at spatial resolution > 10–20 km or so, the satellite data have accuracy comparable to ship-board gravity measurements over intra-oceanic subduction zones. In the isostatic residual gravity anomaly map, the width of non-isostatically-compensated region of the mature subduction zones is much wider than that of immature ones. More importantly, when the gravitational attraction due to seafloor is removed, a large difference exists between the mature and immature subduction zones in the overriding plate side. Mature subduction zones exhibit broad low gravity anomalies of ~ 200–250 mGal centered at distances of 150–200 km from the trench which are not found over immature subduction zones. The cause of the broad low gravity anomalies over mature subduction zones is debatable due to lack of information on the deep crust and upper mantle structure and property. We discuss the following four causes: (1) serpentinization of the upper mantle beneath the forearc; (2) presence of partial melt in the mantle wedge caused by release of volatiles from the slab, frictional heating and distributed by mantle circulation; (3) difference in density structure between the overriding and subducting plates caused by difference in age and thermal structures with and without compositional stratification between crust and mantle; and (4) anomalous thickness of the arc not explained by isostasy. Our analysis suggests that serpentinization cannot explain the observed gravity anomaly which appears ~ 150–200 km from the trench. Although the extent and distribution of partial melt within the mantle wedge remain in question, to our best estimate, partial melting contributes little (< 50 mGal) to the total negative gravity anomaly. The difference in density structure reflecting temperature difference can only explain less than half of the low gravity anomaly. The sinking of lighter crustal material produces a large negative anomaly in the forearc but its location does not match the observed gravity anomaly. It appears that one cannot explain the total difference in gravity anomaly without invoking anomalous thickness of the arc. Although we could not identify the sole or combination of factors that give rise to the low gravity anomaly in mature subduction zones, the comparison of gravity anomalies between mature and immature subduction zones is likely to provide an important constraint for understanding the evolution and structure of subduction zones as more complementary evidences become available.     

Simulating the Effect of Climate Extremes on Groundwater Flow Through a Lakebed

Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW‐2005 and a kinematic‐wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three‐dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow‐through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area.     

Comparing satellite derived precipitation datasets using the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model in the Congo River Basin

In this paper, three satellite derived precipitation datasets (TRMM, CMORPH, PERSIANN) are used to drive the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model in the Congo Basin. The precipitation data are compared spatially and temporally in two forms: (1) precipitation magnitudes, and (2) resulting streamflow and water storages. Simulated streamflow is assessed using historical monthly discharge data from in situ stream gauges and recent stage data based on water surface elevations derived from ENVISAT radar altimetry data. Simulated total water storage is assessed using monthly storage change values derived from GRACE data. The results show that the three precipitation datasets vary significantly in terms of magnitudes but generally produce a reasonable hydrograph throughout much of the basin, with the exception of the equatorial regions of the watershed. The satellite datasets provide unreasonably high values for specific periods (e.g. all three in Oct–Nov; only CMORPH and PERSIANN in Mar–Apr) in the equatorial regions. Overall, TRMM (3B42) provides the best spatial and temporal distributions and magnitudes or rainfall based on the assessment measures used here. Both CMORPH and PERSIANN tend to overestimate magnitudes, especially in the equatorial regions of the Basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal and event-controlled export of organic matter from the shelf towards the Gulf of Lions continental slope

To investigate the role of coastal canyons in the transfer of organic matter from the shelf to the slope and basin, we deployed sediment trap/current meter pairs at the head of five canyons in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) between November 2003 and May 2004. Analysis of organic carbon, biogenic silica, Corg isotopic composition, Corg/total nitrogen, chloropigments, and amino acids clearly shows the seasonal influence and effect of extreme meteorological events on the composition of collected particles. The sampling period was divided into three “scenarios”. The first corresponded to a large easterly storm and flood of the Rhone river during stratified water column conditions; the composition of material collected during this event was influenced by increased transfer of riverine and coastal particulate matter, with a lower Corg content. During the second “fall-winter” scenario, northern and northwestern winds blowing over the shelf caused cooling and homogenization of the shelf water column; particles collected at this time reflected the homogeneous source of particulate matter transported through canyons; particles sitting in the vicinity of canyon heads are most likely swept downslope by the general south-westward circulation. Organic tracers indicate a degraded origin for organic matter transported during this period. A third “spring” scenario corresponded to northern winds alternating with eastward windstorms that triggered and/or enhanced the cascading of dense waters accumulated on the bottom of the shelf due to previous cooling. These conditions occurred in conjunction with increased phytoplankton productivity in shelf surface waters. Organic matter advected mainly by dense shelf water cascading was fresher due to the transport of newly produced particles and a variable terrestrial fraction; this fraction depended on the proportion of resuspended material accumulated during previous high discharge periods that was involved in each transport pulse. The tight link shown between meteorological conditions and organic matter transport is important for continental margin geochemical studies as future changes in climatic conditions may lead to dramatic changes in carbon sequestration capability and in the ecosystems of deep margin environments.