Geomagnetic field variations in southeastern Europe between 6500 and 100 years B.C.

Results from joint work between the Geophysical Institute (Sofia, Bulgaria), and the Geomagnetic Institute (Grocka, Yugoslavia) on the geomagnetic field variation in the prehistoric past are presented. Preliminary curves of variation of the three geomagnetic elements: declination, inclination and intensity are presented. The movement of the virtual pole position for the 6500 years time period B.C. is derived. The curves and the virtual pole positions provide a dating tool for archaeological purposes and determination of the periodicities in the geomagnetic secular variations in southeastern Europe.     

Apparent propagation velocity of body waves

The apparent horizontal propagation velocity, that is the propagation velocity of seismic waves with respect to the ground surface, is discussed in this paper. This parameter is needed to determine the effects of earthquakes on long structures such as bridges and buried pipelines as well as the torsional rotation of foundations of multi-storey buildings. A time window intensity tensor introduced by Penzien and Kubo is used herein to determine the predominant directions of ground motion during an earthquake. Considering the reflection of waves at a free surface, an approximate relationship between the predominant direction and the angle of incidence of body waves with respect to the ground surface is presented. Knowing the material properties of the top layer and the angle of incidence, the desired propagation velocity with respect to the ground surface is readily calculated. The median value of the apparent propagation velocity of shear waves for near field sites which recorded the 1971 San Fernando earthquake was determined to be about 2-1 km/s using the above method. A similar value for the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake is 3·7 km/s. These values are consistent with the range of values for the apparent propagation velocity determined by other researchers.     

A late Wisconsin and Holocene vegetation history from the central brooks range: Implications for Alaskan palaeoecology

Five pollen diagrams reveal late Wisconsin and Holocene vegetation changes in the Walker Lake/Alatna Valley region of the central Brooks Range, approximately 100 km west of the area studied by D. A. Livingstone (1955, Ecology36, 587–600). New insights into the vegetation history of this region are provided by calculations of pollen influx and by the use of linear discriminant analysis to separate Picea glauca and P. mariana pollen. Three major pollen zones are identified: (1) a basal herb zone, characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae, Gramineae, Salix, and Artemisia, and low total pollen influx; (2) a shrub Betula zone with increased total pollen influx and very high percentages of Betula pollen, predominantly in the size range of B. nana and B. glandulosa; and (3) and Alnus zone dominated by Alnus pollen. Lakes currently within the boreal forest or near tree line show relatively high percentages of Picea pollen in the Alnus zone. Several striking vegetation changes occurred between ca. 10,000 and 7000 yr B.P. Between ca. 11,000 and 10,000 yr B.P., Populus balsamifera pollen percentages as great as 30% indicate that this species was present at low-elevation sites near Walker Lake. These populations declined abruptly ca. 10,000 yr ago and have never regained prominence. About 8500 yr B.P., Picea glauca pollen reached 10–15%, indicating the arrival of P. glauca in or near the study area. P. glauca populations evidently decreased ca. 8000 yr ago, when Picea pollen percentages and influx fell to low values. About 7000 yr B.P., Alnus pollen percentages and influx rose sharply as alder shrubs became established widely. Picea once more expanded ca. 5000 yr ago, but these populations were dominated by P. mariana rather than P. glauca, which increased slowly at this time and may still be advancing northward. Some vegetation changes have been remarkably synchronous over wide areas of interior Alaska, and probably reflect responses of in situ vegetation to environmental changes, but others may reflect the lagged responses of species migrating into new areas.     

Subtidal variability of transverse flow off a cape

Time series of velocity profiles at two Chesapeake Bay entrance sites were used to characterize the subtidal variability of transverse flows off a cape. A shallow sampling site was located near Cape Henry over 6 m of water and separated from a deep site, 20 m deep, by a distance of 4 km. The velocity profiles showed that wind-induced subtidal variations in general masked curvature effects (centrifugal accelerations) that may produce secondary circulation associated with tidal flow around a cape. Such secondary circulation, consisting of flow away from the cape at surface and toward the cape at depth, was observed only during periods of weak winds. Most of the time, transverse flows were unidirectional throughout the water column and moved in opposite directions at the two sites examined. This caused convergence of transverse flow between the two sites under the influence of northerly winds and divergence of transverse flow with southwesterly winds. In addition to unidirectional and curvature-induced secondary flows, other modes of subtidal variability consisted of (1) two-layered responses with surface flow toward the cape, and (2) three-layered responses. These two- and three-layered structures were observed more frequently at the deep site, where greater stratification is expected, than at the shallow site.Responsible Editor: Iris Grabemann     

Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter correlation coefficients, but it required sensitivities that were one to two significant digits less accurate than those that required using parameter correlation coefficients; and (3) both the SVD and parameter correlation coefficients identified extremely correlated parameters better when the parameters were more equally sensitive. When the statistical measures fail, parameter correlation can be identified only by the tedious process of executing regression using different sets of starting values, or, in some circumstances, through graphs of the objective function.     

Marine debris accumulation in the nearshore marine habitat of the endangered Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi 1999-2001

Large amounts of marine debris are present in shallow reefs adjacent to beach haulouts of the critically endangered Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi. These areas serve as seal pup nurseries, and injury and death caused by entanglement in marine debris are undermining population recovery efforts. We investigated the extent of this threat by measuring the accumulation of potentially entangling derelict fishing gear in nursery zones, 1999-2001. Plots of reef 1.0-1.3 km2 at three Northwestern Hawaiian Islands were initially cleaned of derelict fishing gear in 1999 then resurveyed in 2000 and 2001. Submerged debris densities across sites ranged from 16 to 165 debris items/km2. Resurveyed sites yielded annual marine debris accumulation rates from 0 to 141 debris items/km2. This large range was attributed to the physiography of reef areas surveyed. Trawl net webbing was significantly more common than other types of debris recovered and represented 84% of all debris encountered, suggesting that much of the debris originated from distant North Pacific Ocean fisheries. The likely source of most debris is the multinational trawl fisheries of the North Pacific Ocean. An international solution to this problem is needed. Targeted marine debris removal is a short-term, successful, entanglement mitigation strategy.     

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900–2099

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5 °C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.     

Optimization strategies for sediment reduction practices on roads in steep,forested terrain

Many forested steeplands in the western United States display a legacy of disturbances due to timber harvest, mining or wildfires, for example. Such disturbances have caused accelerated hillslope erosion, leading to increased sedimentation in fish‐bearing streams. Several restoration techniques have been implemented to address these problems in mountain catchments, many of which involve the removal of abandoned roads and re‐establishing drainage networks across road prisms. With limited restoration funds to be applied across large catchments, land managers are faced with deciding which areas and problems should be treated first, and by which technique, in order to design the most effective and cost‐effective sediment reduction strategy. Currently most restoration is conducted on a site‐specific scale according to uniform treatment policies. To create catchment‐scale policies for restoration, we developed two optimization models – dynamic programming and genetic algorithms – to determine the most cost‐effective treatment level for roads and stream crossings in a pilot study basin with approximately 700 road segments and crossings. These models considered the trade‐offs between the cost and effectiveness of different restoration strategies to minimize the predicted erosion from all forest roads within a catchment, while meeting a specified budget constraint. The optimal sediment reduction strategies developed by these models performed much better than two strategies of uniform erosion control which are commonly applied to road erosion problems by land managers, with sediment savings increased by an additional 48 to 80 per cent. These optimization models can be used to formulate the most cost‐effective restoration policy for sediment reduction on a catchment scale. Thus, cost savings can be applied to further restoration work within the catchment. Nevertheless, the models are based on erosion rates measured on past restoration sites, and need to be updated as additional monitoring studies evaluate long‐term basin response to erosion control treatments. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining Ring Width, Density and Stable Carbon Isotope Proxies to Enhance the Climate Signal in Tree-Rings: An Example from the Southern French Alps

At present the most powerful tree-ring based climate reconstructions use high numbers of growth proxy series (ring width and density) to produce spatially smoothed estimates, such as average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. These single parameter reconstructions might be supplemented with regional climate reconstructions capable of capturing variability in more than one climate variable without lower replication compromising statistical quality, if multiple tree ring proxies were used. Pinus sylvestris and Pinus uncinata latewood density, width and δ¹³C series are presented from two sites in the French subalpine zone, east of Briançon. Where two proxies have the same dominant climate control their combination enhances that signal. Where proxies differ in dominant controlling climate variable, combining series allows access to bi-variable calibrations. Using this approach, multi-proxy reconstructions of both temperature and precipitation would better reflect complex synoptic variability in climate on spatially useful scales.