Simulation and prediction of blocking in the Australian region and its influence on intra-seasonal rainfall in POAMA-2

We assess the depiction and prediction of blocking at 140°E and its impact on Australian intra-seasonal climate variability in the Bureau of Meteorology’s dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia version 2 (POAMA-2). The model simulates well the strong seasonality of blocking but underestimates its strength and frequency increasingly with lead time, particularly after the first fortnight of the hindcast, in connection with the model’s drifting basic state. POAMA-2 reproduces well the large-scale structure of weekly-mean blocking anomalies and associated rainfall anomalies over Australia; the depiction of total blocking in POAMA-2 may be improved with the reduction of biases in the distribution of Indian Ocean rainfall via a tropical-extratropical wave teleconnection linking blocking activity at 140°E with tropical variability near Indonesia. POAMA-2 demonstrates the ability to skilfully predict the daily blocking index out to 16 days lead time for the ensemble mean hindcast, surpassing the average predictive skill of the individual hindcast members (5 days), the skill obtained from persistence of observed (2 days), and the decorrelation timescale of blocking (3 days). This skilful prediction of the blocking index, together with effective simulation of blocking rainfall anomalies, translates into higher skill in forecasting rainfall in weeks 2 and 3 over much of Australia when blocking is high at the initial time of the hindcast, compared to when the blocking index is small. POAMA-2 is thus capable of providing forecast skill for blocking rainfall on the intra-seasonal timescale to meet the needs of Australian farming communities, whose management practises often rely upon decisions being made a few weeks ahead.     

Variations in the atmospheric electric field and Meteorological parameters at a Tropical coastal urban station during 1936–40 and 1962–66

Summary The seasonal and diurnal variations in the vertical component of the atmospheric electric field, air temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind speed were studied using the surface data for the two periods (1936–40) and (1962–66) recorded at the tropical urban station, Colaba, Bombay (18°51N, 72°49E, 11 m ASL), located on the west coast of India.The atmospheric electric field during the latter period (1962–66) is significantly higher (up to 42.3%) than the earlier period (1936–40). This has been attributed to the enhanced particulate concentrations in the atmosphere. The increase noticed in the atmospheric electric field is a maximum during winter and minimum during the monsoon. The atmospheric electric field exhibited a marked semi-diurnal oscillation with peaks at 0900 LST and 2200 LST during winter, premonsoon and post-monsoon seasons of both the periods. During the monsoon season the double oscillation is not marked.The variations noticed in the surface air temperature and the relative humidity are in agreement with those observed in the atmospheric electric field. The horizontal wind speed showed a decrease which has been attributed to the surface roughness resulting from urbanization.With 7 Figures     

Saltmarsh deposition and its relationship to coastal forcing over the last century on the north-west coast of Ireland

The mesoscale (time) control of annual storm-surge activity on quasi-annual saltmarsh (tidal marsh) deposition is studied from two estuarine saltmarshes on the high-energy NW coast of Ireland. Both saltmarshes exhibit a cliffed edge where maximum sedimentary variation is expressed in the form of lamination. Sections were logged and characterised by lithofacies based on grain-size determinations. Sections dated using Cs and Pb determinations indicated deposition records of decadal to century scale (c. 0.5 cm a^-1). Linear multiple regression explains (p< 0.05) half the variation of the deposition rate by annual coastal forcing (surge frequency and magnitude) and sediment modes (coarse silt to clay). Further variability in deposition rate is partially reflected in the non-linear response between forcing and deposition that is affected by mesoscale (30, 11 and 5-year) periodicities in forcing. Increased annual surge activity appears to be associated with a coarsening of, and reduction in annual deposition. A relationship between annual deposition rate and fractal dimension of surge timing (i.e. the clustering of surge events) is identified.     

Heat as a ground water tracer

Heat carried by ground water serves as a tracer to identify surface water infiltration, flow through fractures, and flow patterns in ground water basins. Temperature measurements can be analyzed for recharge and discharge rates, the effects of surface warming, interchange with surface water, hydraulic conductivity of streambed sediments, and basin-scale permeability. Temperature data are also used in formal solutions of the inverse problem to estimate ground water flow and hydraulic conductivity. The fundamentals of using heat as a ground water tracer were published in the 1960s, but recent work has significantly expanded the application to a variety of hydrogeological settings. In recent work, temperature is used to delineate flows in the hyporheic zone, estimate submarine ground water discharge and depth to the salt-water interface, and in parameter estimation with coupled ground water and heat-flow models. While short reviews of selected work on heat as a ground water tracer can be found in a number of research papers, there is no critical synthesis of the larger body of work found in the hydrogeological literature. The purpose of this review paper is to fill that void and to show that ground water temperature data and associated analytical tools are currently underused and have not yet realized their full potential.     

A calculation of a white dwarf supernova

A hydrodynamic calculation of a 1.42M white dwarf supernova is described. Instability and collapse are initiated by electron capture and the subsequent nuclear detonation of C¹² at high densities is sufficient to disperse all the material of the star with an average velocity of 7000 km/secOf the National Bureau of Standards and University of Colorado.