Overcoming the problem of locking in linear elasticity and poroelasticity: an heuristic approach

In this paper, we examine heuristically the reasons for locking in poroelasticity. As a first step, we first reexamine the problem of locking in linear elasticity. From this, we discover how the problem arises in the poroelasticity setting and how the problem might be overcome.     

Dynamics of flood water infiltration and ground water recharge in hyperarid desert

A study on flood water infiltration and ground water recharge of a shallow alluvial aquifer was conducted in the hyperarid section of the Kuiseb River, Namibia. The study site was selected to represent a typical desert ephemeral river. An instrumental setup allowed, for the first time, continuous monitoring of infiltration during a flood event through the channel bed and the entire vadose zone. The monitoring system included flexible time domain reflectometry probes that were designed to measure the temporal variation in vadose zone water content and instruments to concurrently measure the levels of flood and ground water. A sequence of five individual floods was monitored during the rainy season in early summer 2006. These newly generated data served to elucidate the dynamics of flood water infiltration. Each flood initiated an infiltration event which was expressed in wetting of the vadose zone followed by a measurable rise in the water table. The data enabled a direct calculation of the infiltration fluxes by various independent methods. The floods varied in their stages, peaks, and initial water contents. However, all floods produced very similar flux rates, suggesting that the recharge rates are less affected by the flood stages but rather controlled by flow duration and available aquifer storage under it. Large floods flood the stream channel terraces and promote the larger transmission losses. These, however, make only a negligible contribution to the recharge of the ground water. It is the flood duration within the active streambed, which may increase with flood magnitude that is important to the recharge process.     

Depositional and post-depositional controls on magnetic signals from saltmarshes on the north-west coast of Ireland

Magnetic measurements were carried out on samples from two saltmarshes deposited during the last century on the north-west coast of Ireland. Based on profiles from cliffed saltmarsh edge, mid-marsh and supratidal locations, the processes that affect the generation and persistence of magnetic properties in environments were investigated. This was done to help in understanding the geochemical processes affecting north-west Irish coast saltmarshes and to determine the frequency and provenance of sediment-laden flooding events; hence, disentangling the importance of clastic and organic contributions to saltmarsh growth. Magnetic properties indicate depositional and post-depositional effects varying on both temporal and spatial scales. The interpretations presented here suggest that both biogenic and diagenetic processes have a strong effect on the magnetic properties recorded: in the former case, the growth of magnetotactic bacteria is the main process; in the latter case, it is reductive diagenesis, associated with organic matter decomposition, that is important. The biogenic and diagenetic effects overprint and degrade the detrital magnetic signatures respectively. This suggests that magnetic measurements within the context of north-west Irish coast saltmarshes can provide limited information on clastic sediment input to these environments. Comparisons between sites on the north-west coast of Ireland show similar magnetic properties, despite differences in deposition rates, implying that significant post-depositional alteration of magnetic properties occurs within the first 20–40 years after deposition. Magnetic properties of north-west coast Irish saltmarshes are put into a regional context by comparison with magnetic profiles from similar sites.     

Network Topology and City Accessibility of the Commercial Internet

The rapid growth in this decade of World Wide Web access through the Internet is supported by a complex matrix of telecommunications infrastructure. This paper presents an overview of the history of the Internet and recent efforts to measure its structure and performance, and examines the spatial organization of the commercial Internet backbone. The research presented in this paper differs from previous Internet measurement work in that we apply network analysis methods to evaluate Internet connectivity. Transportation network analysis techniques are applied to measure 1) connectivity of individual service provider networks and 2) accessibility of cities to Internet service. The results reveal many different strategies implemented by service providers in network design as well as large differences in levels of accessibility of cities and regions in the United States. There is also an apparent disparity between population and city accessibility to the Internet.     

Site formation processes in the cody and early plains archaic levels at the laddie creek site,wyoming

The combination of previously published pedological and phytolith analyses with new information on the geology, palynology, and an innovative analysis of archaeological chipped stone remains (including backplots, cluster analyses of artifacts, and chipped stone refitting) clarifies the environment and site formation of the mid-Holocene deposits at the Laddie Creek site, Wyoming. Palynological analyses strengthen the argument made by Reider and Karlstrom (1987) that the site was slightly wetter and warmer during the Altithermal (7500–5000 B.P.). The mid-Holocene environment at the site was conductive to the formation of soils and the preservation of archaeological deposits. A Cody Complex level associated with a colluvial C horizon provides evidence of greater movement of this material than that seen in the multiple Early Plains Archaic occupations associated with four A-horizons. The cultural levels identified in laboratory analyses are palimspsests deposited during multiple occupations.     

Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10–30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides guidance of formation and tracks on 10–30 day timescales.     

Simulation and prediction of blocking in the Australian region and its influence on intra-seasonal rainfall in POAMA-2

We assess the depiction and prediction of blocking at 140°E and its impact on Australian intra-seasonal climate variability in the Bureau of Meteorology’s dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia version 2 (POAMA-2). The model simulates well the strong seasonality of blocking but underestimates its strength and frequency increasingly with lead time, particularly after the first fortnight of the hindcast, in connection with the model’s drifting basic state. POAMA-2 reproduces well the large-scale structure of weekly-mean blocking anomalies and associated rainfall anomalies over Australia; the depiction of total blocking in POAMA-2 may be improved with the reduction of biases in the distribution of Indian Ocean rainfall via a tropical-extratropical wave teleconnection linking blocking activity at 140°E with tropical variability near Indonesia. POAMA-2 demonstrates the ability to skilfully predict the daily blocking index out to 16 days lead time for the ensemble mean hindcast, surpassing the average predictive skill of the individual hindcast members (5 days), the skill obtained from persistence of observed (2 days), and the decorrelation timescale of blocking (3 days). This skilful prediction of the blocking index, together with effective simulation of blocking rainfall anomalies, translates into higher skill in forecasting rainfall in weeks 2 and 3 over much of Australia when blocking is high at the initial time of the hindcast, compared to when the blocking index is small. POAMA-2 is thus capable of providing forecast skill for blocking rainfall on the intra-seasonal timescale to meet the needs of Australian farming communities, whose management practises often rely upon decisions being made a few weeks ahead.     

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900–2099

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5 °C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.