Spatio-temporal pattern of viral meningitis in Michigan, 1993-2001

To characterize Michigans high viral meningitis incidence rates, 8,803 cases from 1993–2001 were analyzed for standard epidemiological indices, geographic distribution, and spatio-temporal clusters. Blacks and infants were found to be high-risk groups. Annual seasonality and interannual variability in epidemic magnitude were apparent. Cases were concentrated in southern Michigan, and cumulative incidence was correlated with population density at the county level (r=0.45, p<0.001). Kulldorffs Scan test identified the occurrence of spatio-temporal clusters in Lower Michigan during July–October 1998 and 2001 (p=0.01). More extensive data on cases, laboratory isolates, sociodemographics, and environmental exposures should improve detection and enhance the effectiveness of a Space-Time Information System aimed at prevention.The authors gratefully acknowledge Dr. Duane Newton, former manager of the Virology Section, Michigan Department of Community Health Bureau of Laboratories, for his provision of data on viral isolates. We also appreciate the contributions of Drs. Leah Estberg and Dunrie Greiling for ClusterSeer support, Scott Swan for his assistance with ArcView GIS, and Dr. Edward L. Ionides for his advice on time series analysis. We are grateful to Dr. Pierre Goovaerts and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. This project was supported in part by a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Joint Program on Climate Variability and Human Health, a consortium including the EPA, NASA, NSF, and EPRI (NA16GP2361) to MLW.     

Communication,Partnerships, and the Role of Social Science: Conservation Delivery in a Brave New World

Abstract

The Saginaw Bay Regional Conservation Partnership Program (RCPP) in Michigan is an innovative conservation effort organized to address water quality impairments involving a unique collaboration between conservation organizations, agronomists, universities, commodity groups, and agribusinesses. We track the evolution and adaptation of the Saginaw Bay RCPP, and the collaboration among the traditional and nontraditional conservation partners. Our reflections are organized around three key lessons: vertical and horizontal communication challenges; contextual and structural constraints; barriers that remain between private and public sector entities for this and alternative conservation-delivery models. Lessons from this evaluation will inform the design of future collaborative/multi-stakeholder watershed management efforts. We also demonstrate that rather than being used as an ad-hoc approach, social science evaluation was integrated into conservation planning and practice, hence increasing the salience and legitimacy of the conservation social science in collaborative watershed management.     

Probabilistic modelling of auto-correlation characteristics of heterogeneous slopes

Spatial variability of soil materials has long been recognised as an important factor influencing the reliability of geo-structures. This study stochastically investigates the influence of spatial variability of shear strength on the stability of heterogeneous slopes, focusing on the auto-correlation function, auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation between soil parameters. The finite element method is merged with the random field theory to probabilistically evaluate factor of safety and probability of failure via Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation procedure is explained in detail with suggestions on improving efficiency of the Monte-Carlo process. A simple procedure to create cross-correlation between random variables, which allows direct comparison of the influence of each strength variable, is discussed. The results show that the auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation can significantly influence slope stability, while the choice of auto-correlation function only has a minor effect. An equation relating the probability of failure with the auto-correlation distance is suggested in light of the analyses performed in this work and other results from the literature.     

Distribution and geological control of mud volcanoes and other fluid/free gas seepage features in the Mediterranean Sea and nearby Gulf of Cadiz

Existing knowledge on the distribution of mud volcanoes (MVs) and other significant fluid/free gas-venting features (mud cones, mud pies, mud-brine pools, mud carbonate cones, gas chimneys and, in some cases, pockmark fields) discovered on the seafloor of the Mediterranean Sea and in the nearby Gulf of Cadiz has been compiled using regional geophysical information (including multibeam coverage of most deepwater areas). The resulting dataset comprises both features proven from geological sampling, or in situ observations, and many previously unrecognized MVs inferred from geophysical evidence. The synthesis reveals that MVs clearly have non-random distributions that correspond to two main geodynamic settings: (1) the vast majority occur along the various tectono-sedimentary accretionary wedges of the Africa-Eurasia subduction zone, particularly in the central and eastern Mediterranean basins (external Calabrian Arc, Mediterranean Ridge, Florence Rise) but also along its westernmost boundary in the Gulf of Cadiz; (2) other MVs characterize thick depocentres along parts of the Mesozoic passive continental margins that border Africa from eastern Tunisia to the Levantine coasts, particularly off Egypt and, locally, within some areas of the western Mediterranean back-arc basins. Meaningfully accounting for MV distribution necessitates evidence of overpressured fluids and mud-rich layers. In addition, cross-correlations between MVs and other GIS-based data, such as maps of the Messinian evaporite basins and/or active (or recently active) tectonic trends, stress the importance of assessing geological control in terms of the presence, or not, of thick seals and potential conduits. It is contended that new MV discoveries may be expected in the study region, particularly along the southern Ionian Sea continental margins.     

Use of Green’s function for determining the disturbing potential of an ellipsoidal Earth

A spherical approximation makes the basis for a majority of formulas in physical geodesy. However, the present-day accuracy in determining the disturbing potential requires an ellipsoidal approximation. The paper deals with constructing Green’s function for an ellipsoidal Earth by an ellipsoidal harmonic expansion and using it for determining the disturbing potential. From the result obtained the part that corresponds to the spherical approximation has been extracted. Green’s function is known to depend just on the geometry of the surface where boundary values are given. Thus, it can be calculated irrespective of the gravity data completeness. No changes of gravity data have an effect on Green’s function and they can be easily taken into account if the function has already been constructed. Such a method, therefore, can be useful in determining the disturbing potential of an ellipsoidal Earth.     

Zircon-scale insights into the history of a Supervolcano,Bishop Tuff,Long Valley,California, with implications for the Ti-in-zircon geothermometer

Zircon has the outstanding capacity to record chronological, thermal, and chemical information, including the storage history of zoned silicic magma reservoirs like the one responsible for the Bishop Tuff of eastern California, USA. Our novel ion microprobe approach reveals that Bishop zircon rims with diverse chemical characteristics surround intermediate domains with broadly similar compositions. The highest Y, REE, U, and Th concentrations tend to accompany the largest excesses in Y + REE³⁺:P beyond what can be explained by xenotime substitution in zircon. Apparent Ti-in-zircon temperatures of <720°C for zircon rims are distinctly lower than most of the range in eruption temperatures, as estimated from FeTi-oxide equilibria and zircon solubility at quench. While permissive of crystallization of zircon at near-solidus conditions, the low Ti-in-zircon temperatures are probably better explained by sources of inaccuracy in the temperature estimates. After apparently nucleating from different melts, zircons from across the Bishop Tuff compositional spectrum may have evolved to broadly similar chemical and thermal conditions and therefore it is possible that there was no significant thermal gradient in the magma reservoir at some stage in its evolution. There is also no compelling evidence for punctuated heat ± chemical influxes during the intermediate stages of zircon growth. Judging by the zircon record, the main volume of the erupted magma evolved normally by secular cooling but the latest erupted portion is characterized by a reversal in chemistry that appears to indicate perfusion of the magma reservoir by—or zircon entrainment in—a less evolved melt from the one in which the zircons had previously resided.