Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

Extreme climate events have been identified both in meteorological and long-term proxy records from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) realm. However, the potential of palaeoclimate data for understanding mechanisms triggering climate extremes over long time scales has not been fully exploited. A distinction between proxies indicating climate change, environment, and ecosystem shift is crucial for enabling a comparison with forcing mechanisms (e.g. El-Niño Southern Oscillation). In this study we decouple these factors using data analysis techniques [multiplex recurrence network (MRN) and principal component analyses (PCA)] on multiproxy data from two lakes located in different climate regions – Lonar Lake (ISM dominated) and the high-altitude Tso Moriri Lake (ISM and westerlies influenced). Our results indicate that (i) MRN analysis, an indicator of changing environmental conditions, is associated with droughts in regions with a single climate driver but provides ambiguous results in regions with multiple climate/environmental drivers; (ii) the lacustrine ecosystem was ‘less sensitive’ to forcings during the early Holocene wetter periods; (iii) archives in climate zones with a single climate driver were most sensitive to regime shifts; (iv) data analyses are successful in identifying the timing of onset of climate change, and distinguishing between extrinsic and intrinsic (lacustrine) regime shifts by comparison with forcing mechanisms. Our results enable development of conceptual models to explain links between forcings and regional climate change that can be tested in climate models to provide an improved understanding of the ISM dynamics and their impact on ecosystems. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of channel morphology on bedload path lengths: Insights from a survival process model

Tracer studies are a commonly used tool to develop and test Einstein-type stochastic bedload transport models. The movements of these tracers are controlled by many factors including grain characteristics, hydrologic forcing, and channel morphology. Although the influence of these sediment storage zones related to morphological features (e.g., bars, pools, riffles) have long been observed to “trap” bedload particles in transport, this influence has not been adequately quantified. In this paper we explore the influence of channel morphology on particle travel distances through the development of a Bayesian survival process model. This model simulates particle path length distributions using a location-specific “trapping probability” parameter (p_i ), which is estimated using the starting and ending locations of bedload tracers. We test this model using a field tracer study from Halfmoon Creek, Colorado. We find that (1) the model is able to adequately recreate the observed multi-modal path length distributions, (2) particles tend to accumulate in trapping zones, especially during large floods, and (3) particles entrained near a trapping zone will travel a shorter distance than one that is further away. Particle starting positions can affect path lengths by as much as a factor of two, which we confirm by modelling “starting-location-specific” path length probability distributions. This study highlights the importance of considering both tracer locations and channel topography in examinations of field tracer studies. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country’s second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate’s exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.     

An Investigation into Ridge-Top Turbulence Characteristics During Neutral and Weakly Stable Conditions: Velocity Spectra and Isotropy

An investigation into high Reynolds number turbulent flow over a ridge top in New Zealand is described based on high-resolution in-situ measurements, using ultrasonic anemometers for two separate locations on the same ridge with differing upwind terrain complexity. Twelve 5-h periods during neutrally stratified and weakly stable atmospheric conditions with strong wind speeds were sampled at 20 Hz. Large (and small) turbulent length scales were recorded for both vertical and longitudinal velocity components in the range of 7–23 m (0.7–3.3 m) for the vertical direction and 628–1111 m (10.5–14.5 m) for the longitudinal direction. Large-scale eddy sizes scaled to the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) numerical model simulated boundary-layer thickness for both sites, while small-scale turbulent features were a function of the complexity of the upwind terrain. Evidence of a multi-scale turbulent structure was obtained at the more complex terrain site, while an assessment of the three-dimensional isotropy assumption in the inertial subrange of the spectrum showed anisotropic turbulence at the less complex site and evidence of isotropic turbulence at the more complex site, with a spectral ratio convergence deviating from the 4/3 or unity values suggested by previous theory and practice. Existing neutral spectral models can represent locations along the ridge top with simple upwind complexity, especially for the vertical wind spectra, but sites with more orographic complexity and strong vertical wind speeds are often poorly represented using these models. Measured spectra for the two sites exhibited no significant diurnal variation and very similar large-scale and small-scale turbulent length scales for each site, but the turbulence energy measured by the variances revealed a strong diurnal difference.     

Modelling the effects of climatic and hydrological regime changes on the sediment dynamics of the Fraser River Basin,British Columbia,Canada

Future sediment dynamics may be affected by changing climates or hydrological regimes because of the close link between hydrology and sediment erosion, deposition, and transport. Previously, investigations of these potential changes have been constrained by a combination of limited observational data, hydrological drivers, and appropriate mechanistic models. Additionally, there is often ambiguity regarding how to disentangle the impacts of climate and hydrology from direct human factors such as reservoirs and land‐use change, which often exert more control over sediment dynamics. In this study, we utilize a recently developed, large‐scale, distributed, mechanistic sediment transport model to project future sediment erosion, deposition, and transportation within the Fraser River Basin in British Columbia, Canada—a basin with historical water flux and sediment load observations and limited anthropogenic influences upstream of its delta. The sediment model is driven by synthetic land‐surface hydrology derived from Scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, which were provided by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. Resulting simulations of water flux and sediment load from 1965 to 1994 are first validated against observational data then compared with future projections. Future projections show an overall increase in annual hillslope erosion and in‐channel transportation, a shift towards earlier spring peak erosion and transportation, and longer persistence of the sediment signal through the year. These shifts in timing and annual yield may have deleterious effects on spawning sockeye salmon and are insufficient to counteract future coastal retreat caused by sea‐level rise.     

Virtual rate and mean distance of travel of individual clasts in gravel-bed channels

Travel distances in gravel-bed rivers of tagged particles of various sizes are related to excess stream power estimated for peak discharge. Mean distance of movement, irrespective of grain size, is weakly correlated with stream power, especially near the threshold of movement. There may be several reasons for the weak correlation, including variable effects of bed structure, varying magnitudes of sediment mobilizing events and sampling problems. Grain size itself is of marginal significance. The virtual rate of travel calculated using total time for which the flow is larger than that needed to initiate clast movement also bears a weak relation to the excess stream power over the period. Better results are obtained by relating the virtual rate of travel to the first peak of the flow event only. This implies that the initial seeding of the tagged particles dominates the observations. Nonetheless, an underlying general relation is indicated by the data, which are derived from a wide range of flow regime types.     

The influence of microform bed roughness elements on flow and sediment transport in gravel bed rivers

Pebble clusters are reported widely as characteristic of gravel river beds and are known to influence the initial entrainment of bedload. A field assessment suggests that their distribution is not ubiquitous, favouring channel bars, but also reveals a tendency towards a preferred stream wise spacing. A series of laboratory flume experiments shows that flow resistance rises to, and falls from, a peak value as the longitudinal spacing of pebble clusters decreases, in a manner similar to that shown by others for strip roughness, isolated blocks, and simulated ripples and dunes. The experiments also reveal a strong inverse relationship between bedload flux rates and the flow resistance induced by the concentration of pebble clusters. It is concluded that pebble cluster spacing tends towards an equilibrium that is regulated by a feedback process involving sediment transport rates and that the spatial concentration of these microforms will adjust to the point where they induce maximum flow resistance.     

Influence of the head and tip connection on the seismic performance of micropiles

This paper presents a study of the influence of connection conditions at the head and tip of micropiles on their response to seismic loading. The study is carried using a fully three-dimensional finite element modeling. The soil is assumed to be elastic with Rayleigh damping. The superstructure is modeled by a single degree of freedom system composed of a concentrated mass and a column. The study is carried out for both vertical and inclined micropiles. The results of analyses show that a pinned connection between the micropiles and the cap leads to a reduction in the axial force and bending moment in micropiles, in particular for inclined micropiles. They also show that the embeddement of the tip of micropiles in a stiff substratum layer leads to a dramatic increase in the internal forces in the micropiles.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of sediment storage over 45 years in Carnation Creek,BC, a previously glaciated mountain catchment

The movement of sediment through mountain river networks remains difficult to predict, as processes beyond streamflow and particle size are responsible for the entrainment and transport of bedload sediment. In deglaciated catchments, additional complexity arises from glacial impacts on landscape organization. Research to date indicates that the quantity of sediment stored in the channel is an important component of sediment transport in systems which alternate between supply and transport limited states, but limited long-term field data exist which can capture storage-transfer dynamics over a timescale encompassing episodic supply typical of mountain streams. We use a 45-year dataset with annual and decadal-scale data on sediment storage, channel morphology, and wood loading to investigate the spatial and temporal organization of storage in Carnation Creek, a previously glaciated 11 km² catchment on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Sediment is supplied episodically to the channel, including additions from debris flows in the early 1980s just upstream of the studied channel region. Analyzing the spatial and temporal organization of sediment storage along 3.0 km of channel mainstem reveals a characteristic storage wavelength similar to the annual bedload particle travel distance. Over time, two scales of variation in storage are observed: small-scale fluctuation of 3–10 years corresponding to local erosional and depositional processes, and larger scale response over 25–35 years related to supply of sediment from hillslopes. Complex relationships between storage and sediment transfer (i.e., annual change in storage) are identified, with decadal-scale hysteresis present in storage-transfer relations in sites influenced by hillslope sediment and logjams. We propose a conceptual model linking landscape organization to temporal variability in storage and to storage–export cycles. Collectively, our results reaffirm the importance of storage to sediment transport and channel morphology, and highlight the complexity of storage–transport interactions. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.