Climate and variability bias adjustment of climate model-derived winds for a southeast Australian dynamical wave model

Climate models are increasingly being used to force dynamical wind wave models in order to assess the potential climate change-driven variations in wave climate. In this study, an ensemble of wave model simulations have been used to assess the ability of climate model winds to reproduce the present-day (1981–2000) mean wave climate and its seasonal variability for the southeast coast of Australia. Surface wind forcing was obtained from three dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) global climate model (GCM) simulations (CSIRO Mk3.5, GFDLcm2.0 and GFDLcm2.1). The downscaling was performed using CSIRO’s cubic conformal atmospheric model (CCAM) over the Australian region at approximately 60-km resolution. The wind climates derived from the CCAM downscaled GCMs were assessed against observations (QuikSCAT and NCEP Re-analysis 2 (NRA-2) reanalyses) over the 1981–2000 period and were found to exhibit both bias in mean wind conditions (climate bias) as well as bias in the variance of wind conditions (variability bias). Comparison of the modelled wave climate with over 20 years of wave data from six wave buoys in the study area indicates that direct forcing of the wave models with uncorrected CCAM winds result in suboptimal wave hindcast. CCAM winds were subsequently adjusted for climate and variability bias using a bivariate quantile adjustment which corrects both directional wind components to align in distribution to the NRA-2 winds. Forcing of the wave models with bias-adjusted winds leads to a significant improvement of the hindcast mean annual wave climate and its seasonal variability. However, bias adjustment of the CCAM winds does not improve the ability of the model to reproduce the storm wave climate. This is likely due to a combination of storm systems tracking too quickly through the wave generation zone and the performance of the NRA-2 winds used as a benchmark in this study.     

Estimating the snow water equivalent from snow depth measurements in the Swiss Alps

The snow water equivalent (SWE) characterizes the hydrological significance of snow cover. However, measuring SWE is time-consuming, thus alternative methods of determining SWE may be useful. SWE can be calculated from snow depth if the bulk snow density is known. Thus, a reliable estimation method of snow densities could (a) potentially save a lot of effort by, at least partly, sampling snow depth instead of SWE, and would (b) allow snow hydrological evaluations, when only snow depth data are available. To generate a useful parameterization of the bulk density a large dataset was analyzed covering snow densities and depths measured biweekly over five decades at 37 sites throughout the Swiss Alps. Four factors were identified to affect the bulk snow density: season, snow depth, site altitude, and site location. These factors constitute a convenient set of input variables for a snow density model developed in this study. The accuracy of estimating SWE using our model is shown to be equivalent to the variability of repeated SWE measurements at one site. The technique may therefore allow a more efficient but indirect sampling of the SWE without necessarily affecting the data quality.     

A two-stage fluid history for the Orocopia Schist and associated rocks related to flat subduction and exhumation,southeastern California

ABSTRACT

Stable isotopes combined with pre-existing ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology at the Gavilan Hills and Orocopia Mountains in southeastern California record two stages of fluid–rock interaction: (1) Stage 1 is related to prograde metamorphism as Orocopia Schist was accreted to the base of the crust during late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic Laramide flat subduction. (2) Stage 2 affected the Orocopia Schist and is related to middle Cenozoic exhumation along detachment faults. There is no local evidence that schist-derived fluids infiltrated structurally overlying continental rocks. Mineral δ¹⁸O values from Orocopia Schist in the lower plate of the Chocolate Mountains fault and Gatuna normal fault in the Gavilan Hills are in equilibrium at 490–580°C with metamorphic water (δ¹⁸O = 7–11‰). Phengite and biotite δD values from the Orocopia Schist and upper plate suggest metamorphic fluids (δD ~ –40‰). In contrast, final exhumation of the schist along the Orocopia Mountains detachment fault (OMDF) in the Orocopia Mountains was associated with alteration of prograde biotite and amphibole to chlorite (T ~ 350–400°C) and the influx of meteoric-hydrothermal fluids at 24–20 Ma. Phengites from a thin mylonite zone at the top of the Orocopia Schist and alteration chlorites have the lowest fluid δD values, suggesting that these faults were an enhanced zone of meteoric fluid (δD < –70‰) circulation. Variable δD values in Orocopia Schist from structurally lower chlorite and biotite zones indicate a lesser degree of interaction with meteoric-hydrothermal fluids. High fluid δ¹⁸O values (6–12‰) indicate low water–rock ratios for the OMDF. A steep thermal gradient developed across the OMDF at the onset of middle Cenozoic slip likely drove a more vigorous hydrothermal system within the Orocopia Mountains relative to the equivalent age Gatuna fault in the Gavilan Hills.     

Tardigrade remains from lake sediments

Remains of tardigrades have rarely been reported to preserve in sediments, resulting in the absence of important ecological and biogeographic information that they could provide. However, a study of faunal microfossils in Antarctic lake sediment cores has shown that tardigrade eggs and occasionally exuvia can be abundant. Eggs from at least five tardigrade species were identified in sediment cores from six lakes from across the continent, with abundances up to 6,000 (g⁻¹ dry wt.). It is likely that the cold temperatures and absence of benthic grazers in Antarctic lakes results in particularly good preservation conditions, though it may also be a function of population density. The conservation of tardigrade eggs and exuvia in lake sediments enables a better understanding of paleodistributions and effects of environmental changes for this phylum that cannot otherwise be obtained.     

The dynamics of solar sails with a non-point source of radiation pressure

The form of the solar radiation pressure on a heliocentric orbiting solar sail is obtained for a finite angular sized and limb darkened solar disk by the use of the radiation pressure tensor. It is found that the usual inverse square variation of the solar radiation pressure is modified by the finite angular size, and to a lesser extent by the solar limb darkening. The actual magnitude of the modification is in itself small, except at close heliocentric distances. However, its existence has implications for the dynamical stability of solar sails both in parked and circular orbital configurations and for the accuracy of trajectory calculations, particularly for sails in the inner solar system.     

A framework for resolving the transboundary water allocation conflict conundrum

This paper describes a methodology for resolving transboundary water disputes that arise when people/states/nations sharing a resource that crosses legal/political jurisdictions disagree about the use of the resource. Laws and treaties written in an attempt to settle disputes are frequently neither enforced nor effective, and disagreements continue. Crises, arising through resource overuse or shortages, worsen the conflict and typically result in further discord, lawsuits, depletion of the resource, and even open-armed hostility. Many water management experts call for either private/market-based or state/command-and-control resource management systems, but these eventually break down during crisis. The crises therefore necessitate the adoption of a more effective institutional arrangement to address and resolve present and future problems. A better alternative to management by private or state entities and the resolution of conflicts by the mere application of law is a cooperative approach. The Rowland-Ostrom Framework, introduced in this paper, incorporates Ostrom's eight design principles for sustainable common pool resource management within the context of crisis that involves an urgent threat to the quantity or quality of a resource such as water, as described by the author. This paper demonstrates that although established 15 years ago, Ostrom's design principles remain applicable today for effective, sustainable transboundary water management, and the Rowland-Ostrom Framework is a model for the equitable use of shared water resources throughout the world.     

Natural and sail-displaced doubly-symmetric Lagrange point orbits for polar coverage

This paper proposes the use of doubly-symmetric, eight-shaped orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem for continuous coverage of the high-latitude regions of the Earth. These orbits, for a range of amplitudes, spend a large fraction of their period above either pole of the Earth. It is shown that they complement Sun-synchronous polar and highly eccentric Molniya orbits, and present a possible alternative to low thrust pole-sitter orbits. Both natural and solar-sail displaced orbits are considered. Continuation methods are described and used to generate families of these orbits. Starting from ballistic orbits, other families are created either by increasing the sail lightness number, varying the period or changing the sail attitude. Some representative orbits are then chosen to demonstrate the visibility of high-latitude regions throughout the year. A stability analysis is also performed, revealing that the orbits are unstable: it is found that for particular orbits, a solar sail can reduce their instability. A preliminary design of a linear quadratic regulator is presented as a solution to stabilize the system by using the solar sail only. Finally, invariant manifolds are exploited to identify orbits that present the opportunity of a ballistic transfer directly from low Earth orbit.     

Magnesium isotopic composition of the Earth and chondrites

To constrain further the Mg isotopic composition of the Earth and chondrites, and investigate the behavior of Mg isotopes during planetary formation and magmatic processes, we report high-precision (±0.06‰ on δ²⁵Mg and ±0.07‰ on δ²⁶Mg, 2SD) analyses of Mg isotopes for (1) 47 mid-ocean ridge basalts covering global major ridge segments and spanning a broad range in latitudes, geochemical and radiogenic isotopic compositions; (2) 63 ocean island basalts from Hawaii (Kilauea, Koolau and Loihi) and French Polynesia (Society Island and Cook-Austral chain); (3) 29 peridotite xenoliths from Australia, China, France, Tanzania and USA; and (4) 38 carbonaceous, ordinary and enstatite chondrites including 9 chondrite groups (CI, CM, CO, CV, L, LL, H, EH and EL).Oceanic basalts and peridotite xenoliths have similar Mg isotopic compositions, with average values of δ²⁵Mg = −0.13 ± 0.05 (2SD) and δ²⁶Mg = −0.26 ± 0.07 (2SD) for global oceanic basalts (n = 110) and δ²⁵Mg = −0.13 ± 0.03 (2SD) and δ²⁶Mg = −0.25 ± 0.04 (2SD) for global peridotite xenoliths (n = 29). The identical Mg isotopic compositions in oceanic basalts and peridotites suggest that equilibrium Mg isotope fractionation during partial melting of peridotite mantle and magmatic differentiation of basaltic magma is negligible. Thirty-eight chondrites have indistinguishable Mg isotopic compositions, with δ²⁵Mg = −0.15 ± 0.04 (2SD) and δ²⁶Mg = −0.28 ± 0.06 (2SD). The constancy of Mg isotopic compositions in all major types of chondrites suggest that primary and secondary processes that affected the chemical and oxygen isotopic compositions of chondrites did not significantly fractionate Mg isotopes.Collectively, the Mg isotopic composition of the Earth’s mantle, based on oceanic basalts and peridotites, is estimated to be −0.13 ± 0.04 for δ²⁵Mg and −0.25 ± 0.07 for δ²⁶Mg (2SD, n = 139). The Mg isotopic composition of the Earth, as represented by the mantle, is similar to chondrites. The chondritic composition of the Earth implies that Mg isotopes were well mixed during accretion of the inner solar system.     

An Engineering Approach to Seismic Risk Management in Hardrock Mines

The problem of mining-induced seismicity in hardrock mines has become significant as underground mines from around the world are pushing production to deeper levels. At many mines, the risk associated with large seismic events and rockburst damage must be managed to ensure the safety of mine workers and minimise production losses. In this paper, an engineering approach to seismic risk management is described. It relies on accepted risk management techniques, which principally include the identification and understanding of hazards from which risk mitigation measures can be developed. This is achieved using simple but effective analysis techniques of high resolution microseismic data.