Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.     

Fifty years of organisational change in container shipping: regional shift and the role of family firms

Spectacular growth has marked the industry initiated by Malcolm McLean with the sailing of the Ideal-X in 1956. While the growth of container shipping has been typically seen in terms of technological advances, increasing vessel capacity, traffic growth, financial performance and competitiveness, it has been shaped also by organisational transformations. This paper provides an overview of the major companies that make up the container shipping industry, tracing the rapid adoption of containerisation by American carriers to its diffusion to Europe and then Asia. While several carriers belong to business conglomerates, the most dynamic in recent years have been those that are those that possess a family structure. About 12 of the present top 20 carriers are largely family controlled, including 4 out of the top 5. Unlike other capital intensive industries, where the power has shifted towards corporate governance, the container shipping industry retains a strong individualistic entrepreneurial character. At a time when North American ownership in container shipping is no more, the spirit of innovation began 50 years ago by an American visionary is still evident in the entrepreneurial dynamism of many of the industry leaders.     

Binary collisions and the slingshot effect

We derive the equations for the gravity assist manoeuvre in the general 2D case without the constraints of circular planetary orbits or widely different masses as assumed by Broucke (AIAA/AAS 1988) and obtain the slingshot conditions and maximum energy gain for arbitrary mass ratios of two colliding rigid bodies. Using the geometric view developed in an earlier paper by the authors (Rica da Silva, A., Lemos, J.P.S.: Am. J. Phys. 74, 584–590, 2006) the possible trajectories are computed for both attractive or repulsive interactions yielding a further insight on the slingshot mechanics and its parametrization. . The general slingshot manoeuvre for arbitrary masses is explained as a particular case of the possible outcomes of attractive or repulsive binary collisions, and the correlation between asymptotic information and orbital parameters is obtained in general.     

Shalstab mathematical model and WorldView-2 satellite images to identification of landslide-susceptible areas

Natural Hazards - Natural hazards, occurring all over the world, may become a disaster when humans and nature interact. In Brazil, landslides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common...     

Exploration of remotely sensed forest structure and ultrasonic range sensor metrics to improve empirical snow models

Current methods to estimate snow accumulation and ablation at the plot and watershed levels can be improved as new technologies offer alternative approaches to more accurately monitor snow dynamics and their drivers. Here we conduct a meta‐analysis of snow and vegetation data collected in British Columbia to explore the relationships between a wide range of forest structure variables – obtained from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), hemispherical photography (HP) and Landsat Thematic Mapper – and several indicators of snow accumulation and ablation estimated from manual snow surveys and ultrasonic range sensors. By merging and standardizing all the ground plot information available in the study area, we demonstrate how LiDAR‐derived forest cover above 0.5 m was the variable explaining the highest percentage of absolute peak snow water equivalent (SWE) (33%), while HP‐derived leaf area index and gap fraction (45° angle of view) were the best potential predictors of snow ablation rate (explaining 57% of variance). This study reveals how continuous SWE data from ultrasonic sensors are fundamental to obtain statistically significant relationships between snow indicators and structural metrics by increasing mean r² by 20% when compared to manual surveys. The relationships between vegetation and spectral indices from Landsat and snow indicators, not explored before, were almost as high as those shown by LiDAR or HP and thus point towards a new line of research with important practical implications. While the use of different data sources from two snow seasons prevented us from developing models with predictive capacity, a large sample size helped to identify outliers that weakened the relationships and suggest improvements for future research. A concise overview of the limitations of this and previous studies is provided along with propositions to consistently improve experimental designs to take advantage of remote sensing technologies, and better represent spatial and temporal variations of snow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the ‘two water worlds’ hypothesis and water sources for native and exotic evergreen species in south‐central Chile

Recent studies using water‐stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) have suggested an ecohydrological separation of water flowing to streams or recharging groundwater and water used by trees, known as the ‘two water worlds’ (TWW) hypothesis. In this study, we measured water isotopic composition in precipitation [open field and throughfall, i.e. local meteoric water line (LMWL)] and the mobile water compartment (i.e. stream and soil solution), bulk soil water and xylem water over a period of 1.5 years in two headwater catchments: NF, covered with old growth native evergreen forest (Aetoxicon punctatum, Laureliopsis philippiana and Eucriphya cordifolia), and EP, covered with 4 and 16‐year‐old Eucalyptus nitens stands. Our results show that precipitation, stream and soil solution plot approximately along the LMWL, while xylem waters from all studied tree species plot below the LMWL, supporting the TWW hypothesis. However, we also found evidence of ecohydrological connectivity during the wet season, likely controlled by the amount of antecedent precipitation. These observations hold for all investigated tree species. On both sites, a different precipitation source for stream and xylem water was observed. However, in EP, bulk soil showed a similar precipitation source as xylem water from both E. nitens stands. This suggests that E. nitens may use water that is recharging the bulk soil compartment. We conclude that under a rainy temperate climate, the TWW hypothesis is temporal and does not apply during wet seasons. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Origin and evolution of the earth-moon system

The origin and evolution of the Earth-Moon system is studied by comparing it to the satellite systems of other planets. The normal structure of a system of secondary bodies orbiting around a central body depends essentially on the mass of the central body. The Earth with a mass intermediate between Uranus and Mars should have a normal satellite system that consists of about half a dozen satellites each with a mass of a fraction of a percent of the lunar mass. Hence, the Moon is not likely to have been generated in the environment of the Earth by a normal accretion process as is claimed by some authors.Capture of satellites is quite a common process as shown by the fact that there are six satellites in the solar system which, because they are retrograde, must have been captured. There is little doubt that the Moon is also a captured satellite, but its capture orbit and tidal evolution are still incompletely understood.The Earth and the Moon are likely to have been formed from planetesimals accreting in particle swarms in Kepler orbits (jet streams). This process leads to the formation of a cool lunar interior with an outer layer accreted at increasingly higher temperatures. The primeval Earth should similarly have formed with a cool inner core surrounded in this case by a very strongly heated outer core and with a mantle accreted slowly and with a low average temperature but with intense transient heating at each individual impact site.