Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production

This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required.     

Economic consequences of consideration of permanence, leakage and additionality for soil carbon sequestration projects

This paper introduces, explains, and describes methods for addressing the issues of permanence, leakage, and additionality (PLA) of agricultural soil carbon sequestration (ASCS) activities at the project level. It is important to cast these as project-level issues, because they relate to the integrity and consistency of using location-specific ASCS projects as an offset against GHG emissions generated in other sectors (e.g., energy). The underlying objective is to understand and quantify what the net carbon benefits of an ASCS project are once we account for the fact that (1) the sequestered carbon may be stored impermanently, (2) the project may displace emissions outside the project boundaries (leakage), and (3) the project’s carbon sequestration may not be entirely additional to what would have occurred anyway under business-as-usual (no project) conditions. This article evaluates methods for identifying and estimating PLA and gauges the potential magnitude of these effects on the economic returns to a project. This work reflects ongoing collaborative efforts of the authors and Bruce McCarl (Texas A&M University), Allan Sommer, Jui-Chen Yang, and Laurel Clayton (RTI International), Sandra Brown (Winrock International), Ken Andrasko and Ben DeAngelo (US EPA), and various participants in the World Resources Institute/World Business Council workgroup to develop GHG project reporting protocols. All opinions, errors and omissions are those of the authors only.     

High-redshift galaxies, their active nuclei and central black holes

We demonstrate that the luminosity function of the recently detected population of actively star-forming galaxies at redshift z  = 3 and the B -band luminosity function of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) at the same redshift can both be matched with the mass function of dark matter haloes predicted by standard variants of hierarchical cosmogonies for lifetimes of optically bright QSOs anywhere in the range 10⁶ to 10⁸ yr. There is a strong correlation between the lifetime and the required degree of non-linearity in the relation between black hole and halo mass. We suggest that the mass of supermassive black holes may be limited by the back-reaction of the emitted energy on the accretion flow in a self-gravitating disc. This would imply a relation of black hole to halo mass of the form M _bh ∝  v ⁵_halo ∝  M ^5/3_halo and a typical duration of the optically bright QSO phase of a few times 10⁷ yr. The high integrated mass density of black holes inferred from recent black hole mass estimates in nearby galaxies may indicate that the overall efficiency of supermassive black holes for producing blue light is smaller than previously assumed. We discuss three possible accretion modes with low optical emission efficiency: (i) accretion at far above the Eddington rate, (ii) accretion obscured by dust, and (iii) accretion below the critical rate leading to an advection-dominated accretion flow lasting for a Hubble time. We further argue that accretion with low optical efficiency might be closely related to the origin of the hard X-ray background and that the ionizing background might be progressively dominated by stars rather than QSOs at higher redshift.     

On the Intensity Thresholds of the Network and Plage Regions

A period of minimum solar activity in April and May 1996 was used to analyze full-disk CaK spectroheliograms with the aim of deriving the intensity thresholds of the quiet network and the plages by applying the so-called inflexion point method. The average network intensity threshold is found to be influenced mainly by the seeing, whereas the average plage threshold shows an increasing trend from disk center towards the solar limb. Both parameters are compared with the results of other authors.     

EUV Full-Sun Imaging and Pointing Calibration of the SOHO Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer

Although the field of view of the Normal Incidence Spectrometer (NIS) of the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) is 4×4 arc min, it is possible to observe the full solar disk by forming a mosaic of images taken in succession. This paper describes just such a study which has been used to collect images of the Sun simultaneously in six wavelengths between 304 Ú and 630 Ú, and with a temperature coverage between 5×10⁴ K and 2.5×10⁶ K. A representative sample of the resulting images is presented. These data can be used to explore the origin of solar EUV variability, and examine large-scale solar features. Another use of these data is to calibrate the pointing of the CDS Offset Pointing System (OPS), by comparing them against the SOHO Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) full-disk images taken at the same time. Many joint observations are made with CDS and other SOHO instruments, and calibration of the pointing is crucial to the co-pointing of the instruments, and to the analyses of these data. Coalignment is done by fitting to a cross-correlation function, using an IDL procedure which can be applied to any CDS/NIS data set. The accuracy of an individual coalignment can be demonstrated to be in the range 1–2 arc sec. The overall accuracy of the OPS calibration is ±5 arc sec, mainly attributable to measurement error in the actuator positions. An onboard Spartan Intermediate Sun Sensor of the Lockheed design, which was intended to provide greater pointing accuracy, exhibits a time-varying calibration, possibly due to a gradual loss of sensitivity.     

Conditions for the Formation and Maintenance of Filaments – (Invited Review)

Observational conditions for the formation and maintenance of filaments are reviewed since 1989 in the light of recent findings on their structure, chirality, inferred magnetic topology, and mass flows. Recent observations confirm the necessary conditions previously cited: (1) their location at a boundary between opposite-polarity magnetic fields (2) a system of overlying coronal loops, (3) a magnetically-defined channel beneath, (4) the convergence of the opposite-polarity network magnetic fields towards their common boundary within the channel and (5) cancellation of magnetic flux at the common polarity boundary. Evidence is put forth for three additional conditions associated with fully developed filaments: (A) field-aligned mass flows parallel with their fine structure (B) a multi-polar background source of small-scale magnetic fields necessary for the formation of the filament barbs and (C) a handedness property known as chirality which requires them to be either of two types, dextral or sinistral. One-to-one relationships have been established between the chirality of filaments and the chirality of their filament channels and overlying coronal arcades. These findings reinforce earlier evidence that every filament magnetic field is separate from the magnetic field of the overlying arcade but both are parts of a larger magnetic field system. The larger system has at least quadrupolar footprints in the photosphere and includes the filament channel and subphotospheric magnetic fields, This ‘systems’ view of filaments and their environment enables new perspectives on why arcades and channels are invariable conditions for their existence. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005026814076     

Numerical prognosis for salinity profiles of future lakes in the opencast mine Merseburg-Ost

Salt-laden groundwater inflows have formed monimolimnia in developing lakes of the abandoned opencast lignite mine Merseburg-Ost, Central Germany. Water-levels are still rising. To predict the future status of the lakes, two numerical models were developed. One was designed to predict groundwater flows, the second included limnophysical processes. The models were run in parallel and data exchange between them was performed every 1 to 10 years of model time. A trial of a 100-years prognosis was done. The results of surface salinity, mixing depth, and salinity profile are given. A sensitivity analysis yielded indications for the accuracy of the prediction.     

Microclimatic characterization of a karstic cave: human impact on microenvironmental parameters of a prehistoric rock art cave (Candamo Cave, northern Spain)

The Candamo Cave contains an important group of paleolithic paintings which have been seriously deteriorated due to mass tourism. In this work, an analysis was carried out of different climatic parameters (CO₂, temperature, humidity, ²²²Rn) during annual cycles with the cave closed to the public and during an experimental period of controlled visits. The effect of visits on the geochemical characteristics of karstic water was also analyzed together with the cave ventilation. The natural variations in the cave air CO₂ were above 3000 ppm, the increase produced through visits was only 100–110 ppm and since the humidity is almost permanently at saturation point, the critical parameter which limits the visitor capacity becomes air temperature. The temperature changes during the annual cycle are of the order of 1  °C in the external part and less than 0.5  °C in the internal part of the cave and a maximum increase of 0.13  °C was observed during the period of the visits. The ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentration minimums in the summer period (July–October) show that this is the most propitious time for visits, since the greatest ventilation is produced in the cave at this time and, therefore, the greatest capacity for recovery. The geochemistry of the water, on the other hand, indicated that this is the period of the year in which processes of wall corrosion can be most easily introduced, although this would be of limited magnitude. The visitor capacity calculated was 29 visitors/day. Received: 29 August 1996 · Accepted: 23 June 1997