Special Contributions: Pictorial Series of the Manifestations of the Dynamics of the Earth: 5. Kamchatka,Its Early Cartography and Recent Climate Changes

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica -     

Automatic Location of Swarm Earthquakes from Local Network Data

An advanced method of automated seismic phase picking and exact location and magnitude determination of swarm micro-earthquakes from local network data is presented. The phase picker is applied in two steps: first, S-wave groups are identified using a polarisation detector, and then corresponding P-wave groups are searched for. The times of maximum P- and S-amplitudes are then used as starting points for the determination of accurate P- and S-arrival times. The maximum S-wave amplitudes are utilised for determining local magnitudes. The whole procedure is checked by simultaneous preliminary hypocentre location providing estimates of local magnitudes and a compatibility check of the candidate P- and S-phases. The closest station to the earthquake cluster is used as a master, and the phase search at the remaining stations is governed by the P- and S-phases identified at the master station. Thanks to the use of apriori information on the approximate position of hypocentres, the procedure is also capable of picking the individual P- and S-phases of sequences of overlapping swarm events. The performance of the procedure was tested by comparison of the automatically and interactively created catalogues of the January 1997 NW-Bohemia micro-earthquake swarm. With stations located at epicentral distances between 0 and 20 km, the difference between hypocentre coordinates obtained by automatic and interactive processing did not exceed 80 m for 86% events. All events above magnitude 0.5 were identified, and the automatically determined polarity of first P-wave motion proved to be correct in 89% of them.     

Köppen Climate Types in Observed and Simulated Climates

The Köppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Köppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations, all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger, and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller.     

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

Volumetric characteristics of lava flows from interferometric radar and multispectral satellite data: the 1995 Fernandina and 1998 Cerro Azul eruptions in the western Galápagos

We have used a suite of remotely sensed data, numerical lava flow modeling, and field observations to determine quantitative characteristics of the 1995 Fernandina and 1998 Cerro Azul eruptions in the western Galápagos Islands. Flank lava flow areas, volumes, instantaneous effusion rates, and average effusion rates were all determined for these two eruptions, for which only limited syn-eruptive field observations are available. Using data from SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2, we determined that the 1995 Fernandina flow covers a subaerial area of 6.5×10⁶ m² and has a subaerial dense rock equivalent (DRE) volume of 42×10⁶ m³. Field observations, ATSR satellite data, and the FLOWGO numerical model allow us to determine that the effusion rate declined exponentially from a high of ~60–200 m³ s^-1 during the first few hours to <5 m³ s^-1 prior to ceasing after 73 days, with a mean effusion rate of 4–16 m³ s^-1. Integrating the ATSR-derived, exponentially declining effusion rate over the eruption duration produces a total (subaerial + submarine) DRE volume of between 27 and 100×10⁶ m³, the range in values being due to differing assumptions about heat loss characteristics; only values in the higher part of this range are consistent with the independently derived subaerial volume. Using SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2 data, we determine that the 1998 Cerro Azul flow is 16 km long, covers 16 km², and has a DRE volume of 54×10⁶ m³. FLOWGO produces at-vent velocity and effusion rate values of 11 m s^-1 and ~600 m³ s^-1, respectively. The velocity value agrees well with the 12 m s^-1 estimated in the field. The mean effusion rate (total DRE volume/duration) was 7–47 m³ s^-1. Dike dimensions, fissure lengths, and pressure gradients along the conduit based on magma chamber depth estimates of 3–5 km produce mean effusion rates for the two eruptions that range over nearly four orders of magnitude, the range being due to uncertainty in the magma viscosity, dike dimensions, and pressure gradient between magma chamber and vent. Although somewhat consistent with mean effusion rates from other techniques, their wide range makes them less useful. The exponentially declining effusion rates during both eruptions are consistent with release of elastic strain being the driving mechanism of the eruptions. Our results provide independent input parameters for previously published theoretical relationships between magma chamber pressurization and eruption rates that constrain chamber volumes and increases in volume prior to eruption, as well as time constants of exponential decay during the eruption. The results and theoretical relationships combine to indicate that at both volcanoes probably 25–30% of the volumetric increase in the magma chamber erupted as lava onto the surface. In both eruptions the lava flow volumes are less than 1% of the magma chamber volume.     

Geodynamic implications of deep mantle upwelling in the source of Tertiary volcanics from the Veneto region (South-Eastern Alps)

Major and trace element and Sr–Nd–Hf–Pb isotopic data for the most primitive Tertiary lavas from the Veneto region (South-Eastern Alps, Italy) show the typical features of HIMU hotspot volcanism, variably diluted by a depleted asthenospheric mantle component (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i=0.70306–0.70378; _Ndi=+3.9 to +6.8; _Hfi=+6.4 to +8.1, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i=18.786–19.574). P-wave seismic tomography of the mantle below the Veneto region shows the presence of low-velocity anomalies at depth, which is consistent with possible upwellings of plume material. Between the depths of 100–250 km the velocity anomalies are approximately 2–2.5% slower than average, implying a temperature excess of about 220–280 K, in agreement with estimates for other mantle plumes in the world. In this context, the Veneto volcanics may represent the shallow expression of a mantle upflow. The presence of a HIMU-DM component in a collision environment has significant geodynamic implications. Slab detachment and ensuing rise of deep mantle material into the lithospheric gap is proposed to be a viable mechanism of hotspot magmatism in a subduction zone setting.     

A methodology to estimate renewal time scales in estuaries: the Tagus Estuary case

High-resolution hydrodynamic models are a common tool to simulate water dynamics in estuaries. Results from these models are, however, difficult to interpret without the aid of additional parameters to integrate the information. In this paper a methodology to understand the transport patterns in the Tagus Estuary is proposed. It is based on the computation of two renewal time scales: residence time and integrated water fraction. This last parameter is used to build a dependency matrix that gives the integrated influence of each region of the estuary at a selected point. The parameters are computed using a Lagrangian transport model coupled to the hydrodynamic model. Results show that Tagus Estuary has two different types of regions: the central part of the estuary, with low renewal efficiency, and three regions with higher renewal efficiency. Renewal mechanisms are, however, different for each region as shown by the dependency matrix. Comparison of renewal time scales with results from a water-quality model revealed that residence time is not a limiting parameter for primary production in the Tagus Estuary.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Development and sensitivity analysis of a model for assessing stratification and safety of Lake Nyos during artificial degassing

To prevent the recurrence of a disastrous eruption of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from Lake Nyos, a degassing plan has been set up for the lake. Since there are concerns that the degassing of the lake may reduce the stability of the density stratification, there is an urgent need for a simulation tool to predict the evolution of the lake stratification in different scenarios. This paper describes the development of a numerical model to predict the CO₂ and dissolved solids concentrations, and the temperature structure as well as the stability of the water column of Lake Nyos. The model is tested with profiles of CO₂ concentrations and temperature taken in the years 1986 to 1996. It reproduces well the general mixing patterns observed in the lake. However, the intensity of the mixing tends to be overestimated in the epilimnion and underestimated in the monimolimnion. The overestimation of the mixing depth in the epilimnion is caused either by the parameterization of the k-epsilon model, or by the uncertainty in the calculation of the surface heat fluxes. The simulated mixing depth is highly sensitive to the surface heat fluxes, and errors in the mixing depth propagate from one year to the following. A precise simulation of the mixolimnion deepening therefore requires high accuracy in the meteorological forcing and the parameterization of the heat fluxes. Neither the meteorological data nor the formulae for the calculation of the heat fluxes are available with the necessary precision. Consequently, it will be indispensable to consider different forcing scenarios in the safety analysis in order to obtain robust boundary conditions for safe degassing. The input of temperature and CO₂ to the lake bottom can be adequately simulated for the years 1986 to 1996 with a constant sublacustrine source of 18 l s^–1 with a CO₂ concentration of 0.395 mol l^–1 and a temperature of 26 °C. The results of this study indicate that the model needs to be calibrated with more detailed field data before using it for its final purpose: the prediction of the stability and the safety of Lake Nyos during the degassing process.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Adakite-like signature of Late Miocene intrusions at the Los Pelambres giant porphyry copper deposit in the Andes of central Chile: metallogenic implications

Adakite-like features are recognized in the Late Miocene (~10 Ma) porphyritic intrusions of the Los Pelambres giant porphyry copper deposit, central Chile (32°S). Located within the southern portion of the flat-slab segment (28–33°S) of the Chilean Andes, the Al- and Na-rich porphyries of Los Pelambres display distinctly higher Sr/Y (~100–300) and La_N/Yb_N (~25–60) ratios than contemporaneous and barren magmatic units (e.g., La Gloria pluton, Cerro Aconcagua volcanic rocks) of the same Andean magmatic belt. Strong fractionation of heavy rare earth elements (HREE), absence of Eu anomalies, high Sr/Y and Zr/Sm and low Nb/Ta ratios suggest melt extraction from a garnet-amphibolite source. The Late-Miocene adakite-like porphyritic intrusions at Los Pelambres formed closely related in time and space to the subduction of the Juan Fernández Ridge (JFR) hotspot chain along the Chilean margin. Current tectonic reconstructions reveal that, at the time of formation of the Los Pelambres rocks, a W-E segment of the JFR started to subduct beneath them, producing a slow-down of a previously rapid southward migration of a NE-ridge—trench collision. These particular tectonic conditions are favorable for the origin of the Los Pelambres porphyry suite by melting of subducting young hotspot rocks under flat-slab conditions. The incorporation of crustal components into the oceanic lithopheric magma source by subduction erosion is evidenced by the Sr-Nd isotope composition of the Los Pelambres rocks different from the MORB signatures of true adakites. A close relationship apparently exists between the origin of this adakite-like magmatism and the source of the mineralization in the Los Pelambres porphyry copper deposit.Editorial handling: R.J. Goldfarb     

Importance of water quality to nekton habitat use in a North Carolina Branch estuary

Nekton abundance and water quality were examined over 8 yr (1986–1993) in Isaac Creek, a small (2.5 km long), shallow (1–2 m), estuarine creek draining to Adams Creek (Neuse River system), North Carolina, United States. Water quality and nekton were sampled at 8 to 12 stations at 2–3 wk intervals from April to October (76 dates). The nekton assemblage, sampled by trawl, included 42 taxa but was dominated by 11 species (7 fish and 4 decapod crustaceans). Nekton and water quality (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen [DO], salinity gradient) data were grouped and analyzed by three (upper, middle, and lower) creek zones to determine if estimated abundance was correlated with water quality. Potentially stressful water quality conditions for salinity (<5 ppt), temperature (>30°C in morning), and DO (<2 mg 1⁻¹) mainly occurred in the upper and middle zones. The most frequent occurrence of potentially stressful conditions for salinity was in the spring and for dissolved oxygen and temperature in middle to late summer. The frequency of potentially stressful conditions increased during a 3-yr period following timber harvest of a large portion of the watershed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) suggested little correlation between the top 11 species and water quality and indicated an assemblage with regular seasonal changes. Comparison of nekton use of the middle and upper zones of the creek for 3-yr pre- and post-harvest periods showed an increase in proportion of nekton caught in those zones, despite the higher frequency of potentially stressful water quality conditions. This observation suggests that a complex set of factors, including water quality, influence the pattern of nekton use in Isaac Creek.