Uncertainties in quantitative time-lapse seismic analysis

Most seismic time-lapse studies so far have been of a qualitative nature. Identification of areas with minor or no seismic changes has been used to plan new infill drilling targets. Increased accuracy in seismic acquisition methods, in both conventional streamer surveys and newer methods such as multicomponent sea-bed seismic and permanent sensors, opens possibilities for the next step: quantitative time-lapse analysis. Quantitative methods here mean the estimation of, for instance, a change in fluid saturation from 20% water to 90% water or the estimation of a pore pressure change of 5 MPa. Explicit expressions for the uncertainties associated with estimated changes in, for instance, reservoir pressure and fluid saturation are derived. These formulae can be used to compare relative uncertainties between estimated parameters as well as to identify the critical factors in various estimation techniques. The importance of accurate rock physics input, as well as that of highly repeatable time-lapse seismic data, is emphasized. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis can be used to find optimal weight factors when the same parameter (e.g. saturation change) is estimated by two or three different techniques.     

Seismic Hazard Estimate at the Iberian Peninsula

—?Seismic hazard at the Iberian Peninsula has been evaluated by using a methodology which combines both zonified and non-zonified probabilistic methods. Seismic sources are used when considering zones where certain calculation parameters may be considered homogeneous, as in zonified methods, while, on the other hand, earthquakes are considered wherever it has taken place, as in non-zonified methods. The methodology which is applied in this paper has been originally used to calculate the seismic hazard maps in the United States. In our case, it has been necessary to adapt the method to the specific features of the seismicity in the Iberian Peninsula and its geographical surroundings, not only with respect to its distribution and characteristics, but also with respect to the properties of the seismic catalog used.¶Geographically, the main feature of the result is the fact that it reflects both historical seismicity and current seismic clusters of the region. Despite the smoothing, maps show marked differences between several seismic zones; these differences becoming more noticeable as exposure time increases. Maximum seismic hazard is found to be in the southwestern region of the Peninsula, especially in the area of the Cape St. Vicent, and around Lisbon. The uncertainty of the results, without considering that due to the attenuation laws, as deduced from the other evaluation parameters, is quite stable, being more sensitive to the parameters b and m _max of the Gutenberg-Richter relation.     

电离层水平不均匀性对无线电掩星资料反演的影响

电离层水平不均匀结构是引起掩星资料反演的主要误差源.本文模拟不均匀结构对无线电掩星资料反演的影响.首先利用3-D全球射线追踪技术进行了模拟.结果指出:电离层电子密度20%的变化可能引起GPS的时延增加约12m.其次,将90%的掩星时延对应的路径长度,定义为电离层掩星测量的水平分辨率,其值为1200-2000 km.最后,计算了不同纬度电离层当地正午、子夜和日出时的电离层水平不对称指数.它表明:低纬夏季日出时,不对称指数达-78%,反演结果可能有较大误差.     

The molecular universe

Helen J Fraser , Martin R S McCoustra and David A Williams present a simple guide to astrochemistry.
Molecules play a fundamental role in many regions of our universe. The science where chemistry and astronomy overlap is known as astrochemistry, a branch of astronomy that has risen in importance over recent years. In this article we review the significance of chemistry in several astronomical years. IN this article we review the significance of chemistry in several astronomical environments including the early universe, interstellar clouds, starforming regions and protoplanetary disks. We discuss theoretical models, laboratory experiments and observational data, and present several recent and exciting results that challenge our perception of the "molecular universe".     

Multiparametric Traveltime Inversion

In conventional seismic processing, the classical algorithm of Hubral and Krey is routinely applied to extract an initial macrovelocity model that consists of a stack of homogeneous layers bounded by curved interfaces. Input for the algorithm are identified primary reflections together with normal moveout (NMO) velocities, as derived from a previous velocity analysis conducted on common midpoint (CMP) data. This work presents a modified version of the Hubral and Krey algorithm that is designed to extend the original version in two ways, namely (a) it makes an advantageous use of previously obtained common-reflection-surface (CRS) attributes as its input and (b) it also allows for gradient layer velocities in depth. A new strategy to recover interfaces as optimized cubic splines is also proposed. Some synthetic examples are provided to illustrate and explain the implementation of the method.     

Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene shallowing-upwardlacustrine sequences controlled by periodic and non-periodic processes(Ebro Basin, northeastern Spain)

The lacustrine facies from two sections (Candasnos and Fraga) ofthe Oligocene-Miocene Torrente de Cinca lithostratigraphic Unit in thecentral part of the Ebro Basin (Spain) have been analysed to determine theinfluence of orbital parameters in lacustrine sedimentation. The unit ispredominantly composed of limestones and marls, and represents a shallowlacustrine freshwater system. The sedimentological features of the faciesstudied demonstrate that the lower part of the Candasnos section representsoffshore lacustrine subenvironments whereas the upper part, and the whole ofthe Fraga section, characterise marginal lacustrine areas. Series of stratalthickness variations of limestone, marl, and limestone/marl couplets fromboth sections have been analysed using spectral analysis. This shows thatinformation corresponding to periodic cycles only appears in the offshorefacies, that is to say, in the lower part of Candasnos section, and disappearsin the marginal facies where non-periodic cycles exist. Furthermore, thespectral analysis of the offshore facies highlights the existence of a peak inthe power spectrum with a period of around 7 (6.8 to 7.8) that can berecognised in the field as shallowing-upward lacustrine sequences.Magnetostratigraphic data from the Candasnos section allow us to establish atime span of 2,808 years for the limestone/marl couplet from the lower partof this section, and between 19,000 and 22,000 years for the periodic cycleidentified, thus representing the climatic precession cycle. Shallowingsequences from marginal areas do not correspond with any periodiccycle.     

Identification of geomorphic process units in Kärkevagge, northern Sweden, by remote sensing and digital terrain analysis

Sediment transport processes in the Kärkevagge are investigated concerning their spatial and temporal characteristics due to long–term monitoring. Within this study remote sensing techniques and GIS modelling in connection with geomorphic mapping are applied for identification and characterization of geomorphic process units. Relationships between geomorphometric parameters and slope processes like solifluction, talus creep and rockfall have been analysed. Multitemporal Landsat–TM5 scenes are used as source for landcover characteristics (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) after preprocessing involving orthorectification and topographic normalization in order to remove possible terrain–induced effects. Additionally, a digital elevation model with a resolution of 20 m for the Kärkevagge catchment is developed and parameters like slope gradient, slope aspect and profile curvature are extracted as input for the analysis of the sediment transport system. The combination of landcover information, geomorphometrical and topological features allows the definition of areas for single process activities. They show specific sediment displacement characteristics depending on material conditions, topological and geometrical features. Geomorphic process units, which show a homogenous composition, are extracted from these available layers.