An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai

Natural Hazards - Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with...     

Probability of radial anisotropy in the deep mantle

It is well established that the Earth's uppermost mantle is anisotropic, but observations of anisotropy in the deeper mantle have been more ambiguous. Radial anisotropy, the discrepancy between Love and Rayleigh waves, was included in the top 220 km of PREM, but there is no consensus whether anisotropy is present below that depth. Fundamental mode surface waves, for commonly used periods up to 200 s, are sensitive to structure in the first few hundred kilometers and therefore do not provide information on anisotropy below. Higher mode surface waves, however, have sensitivities that extend to and below the transition zone and should thus give insight about anisotropy at greater depths, but they are very difficult to measure. We previously developed a new technique to measure higher mode surface wave phase velocities with consistent uncertainties. These data are used here to construct probability density functions of a radially anisotropic Earth model down to approximately 1500 km. In the uppermost mantle, we obtain a high probability of faster horizontally polarized shear wave speed, likely to be related to plate motion. In the asthenosphere and transition zone, however, we find a high probability of faster vertically polarized shear wave speed. To a depth of 1500 km in the lower mantle, we see no significant shear wave anisotropy. This is consistent with results from laboratory measurements which show that lower mantle minerals are anisotropic but LPO is unlikely to develop in the pressure–temperature conditions present in the mid-mantle.     

Uncertainty in high and low flows due to model structure and parameter errors

This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty in simulated extreme low and high flows originating from hydrological model structure and parameters. To this end, three different rainfall-runoff models, namely GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang, are applied to two subbasins of Qiantang River basin, eastern China. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach is used for estimating the uncertainty of the three models due to parameter values, henceforth referred as parameter uncertainty. Uncertainty in simulated extreme flows is evaluated by means of the annual maximum discharge and mean annual 7-day minimum discharge. The results show that although the models have good performance for the daily flows, the uncertainty in the extreme flows could not be neglected. The uncertainty originating from parameters is larger than uncertainty due to model structure. The parameter uncertainty of the extreme flows increases with the observed discharge. The parameter uncertainty in both the extreme high flows and the extreme low flows is the largest for the HBV model and the smallest for the Xinanjiang model. It is noted that the extreme low flows are mostly underestimated by all models with optimum parameter sets for both subbasins. The largest underestimation is from Xinanjiang model. Therefore it is not reliable enough to use only one set of the parameters to make the prediction and carrying out the uncertainty study in the extreme discharge simulation could give an overall picture for the planners.     

Efficient gravity field recovery from GOCE gravity gradient observations

 An efficient algorithm is proposed for gravity field recovery from Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite gravity gradient observations. The mathematical model is formulated in the time domain, which allows the inclusion of realistic observational noise models. The algorithm combines the iterative solution of the normal equations, using a Richardson-type iteration scheme, with the fast computation of the right-hand side of the normal equations in each iteration step by a suitable approximation of the design matrix. The convergence of the iteration is investigated, error estimates are provided, and the unbiasedness of the method is proved. It is also shown that the method does not converge to the solution of the normal equations. The performance of the approach for white noise and coloured noise is demonstrated along a simulated GOCE orbit up to spherical harmonic degree and order 180. The results also indicate that the approximation error may be neglected. Received: 30 November 1999 / Accepted: 31 May 2000     

Hydrological response to future land-use change and climate change in a tropical catchment

Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km²) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983–2005 and the future period 2030–2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.     

Quantifying submerged fluvial topography using hyperspatial resolution UAS imagery and structure from motion photogrammetry

Quantifying the topography of rivers and their associated bedforms has been a fundamental concern of fluvial geomorphology for decades. Such data, acquired at high temporal and spatial resolutions, are increasingly in demand for process‐oriented investigations of flow hydraulics, sediment dynamics and in‐stream habitat. In these riverine environments, the most challenging region for topographic measurement is the wetted, submerged channel. Generally, dry bed topography and submerged bathymetry are measured using different methods and technology. This adds to the costs, logistical challenges and data processing requirements of comprehensive river surveys. However, some technologies are capable of measuring the submerged topography. Through‐water photogrammetry and bathymetric LiDAR are capable of reasonably accurate measurements of channel beds in clear water. While the cost of bathymetric LiDAR remains high and its resolution relatively coarse, the recent developments in photogrammetry using Structure from Motion (SfM) algorithms promise a fundamental shift in the accessibility of topographic data for a wide range of settings. Here we present results demonstrating the potential of so called SfM‐photogrammetry for quantifying both exposed and submerged fluvial topography at the mesohabitat scale. We show that imagery acquired from a rotary‐winged Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) can be processed in order to produce digital elevation models (DEMs) with hyperspatial resolutions (c. 0.02 m) for two different river systems over channel lengths of 50–100 m. Errors in submerged areas range from 0.016 m to 0.089 m, which can be reduced to between 0.008 m and 0.053 m with the application of a simple refraction correction. This work therefore demonstrates the potential of UAS platforms and SfM‐photogrammetry as a single technique for surveying fluvial topography at the mesoscale (defined as lengths of channel from c.10 m to a few hundred metres). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of humic acids on numbers and activities of micro-organisms within physiological groups

The incorporation of humic acid fractions in media designed for the enumeration of soil micro-organisms belonging to specific physiological groups was found to result for some groups in appreciably higher counts. It is suggested that by influencing the enzyme systems of certain micro-organisms, humic compounds may affect the range of substrates which they can utilize. The effect could have implications on the activity of organisms in environments in which humic substances are normally present, such as soils and natural waters.     

On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts,vulnerability and climate change

Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone—other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations.