On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts,vulnerability and climate change

Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone—other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations.     

Catchment storage and residence time in a periodically irrigated watershed

Understanding anthropogenic impacts on water storage and water flow pathways in catchments is an ongoing challenge in hydrology. Here, we study the dynamics of subsurface storage and residence time of water in a catchment in Berkeley, California, that is within a regional park but contains diverse land use within its perimeter, including a periodically irrigated golf course. Our study combines several isotopic tracers with water budget data to examine sources of water in a stream draining the site. Irrigation water, applied to a small area of the watershed, is a minor component of the water budget. However, geochemical tracers reveal that irrigation water is a significant fraction of stream flow downstream of the golf course during baseflow and during precipitation events. Isotopic tracers indicate that the watershed has a preference to release young water for stream flow generation, resulting in contrasting tritium ages for stream water and groundwater of 1.3 ± 0.5 year and 8.2 ± 1.7 year, respectively. We determined that the older water is a very small component (0.7%) of the stream water in the tail of an assumed exponential distribution. We used the seasonal variation of stable water isotopes in precipitation and stream water over two water years to explain the damping of the isotopic signature of stream water, which yields information about the catchment's response to the input signal. The methods described here may be applicable to other urban or suburban headwater catchments in areas with a component of non-natural recharge from, for example, leaky infrastructure, storm water routing or dry season irrigation.     

Effects of differential hillslope‐scale water retention characteristics on rainfall–runoff response at the Landscape Evolution Observatory

Hillslopes turn precipitation into runoff and thus exert important controls on various Earth system processes. It remains difficult to collect reliable data necessary for understanding and modeling these Earth system processes in real catchments. To overcome this problem, controlled experiments are being conducted at the Landscape Evolution Observatory at Biosphere 2, The University of Arizona. Previous experiments have revealed differences in hydrological response between 2 landscapes within Landscape Evolution Observatory, even though both landscapes were designed to be identical. In an attempt to discover where the observed differences stem from, we use a fully 3‐dimensional hydrological model (CATchment HYdrology) to show the effect of soil water retention characteristics and saturated hydraulic conductivity on the hydrological response of these 2 hillslopes. We also show that soil water retention characteristics can be derived at hillslope scale from experimental observations of soil moisture and matric potential. It is found that differences in soil packing between the 2 landscapes may be responsible for the observed differences in hydrological response. This modeling study also suggests that soil water retention characteristics and saturated hydraulic conductivity have a profound effect on rainfall–runoff processes at hillslope scale and that parametrization of a single hillslope may be a promising step in modeling rainfall–runoff response in real catchments.     

Validation of GOCE gravity field models by means of orbit residuals and geoid comparisons

Three GOCE-based gravity field solutions have been computed by ESA’s high-level processing facility and were released to the user community. All models are accompanied by variance-covariance information resulting either from the least squares procedure or a Monte-Carlo approach. In order to obtain independent external quality parameters and to assess the current performance of these models, a set of independent tests based on satellite orbit determination and geoid comparisons is applied. Both test methods can be regarded as complementary because they either investigate the performance in the long wavelength spectral domain (orbit determination) or in the spatial domain (geoid comparisons). The test procedure was applied to the three GOCE gravity field solutions and to a number of selected pre-launch models for comparison. Orbit determination results suggest, that a pure GOCE gravity field model does not outperform the multi-year GRACE gravity field solutions. This was expected as GOCE is designed to improve the determination of the medium to high frequencies of the Earth gravity field (in the range of degree and order 50 to 200). Nevertheless, in case of an optimal combination of GOCE and GRACE data, orbit determination results should not deteriorate. So this validation procedure can also be used for testing the optimality of the approach adopted for producing combined GOCE and GRACE models. Results from geoid comparisons indicate that with the 2 months of GOCE data a significant improvement in the determination of the spherical harmonic spectrum of the global gravity field between degree 50 and 200 can be reached. Even though the ultimate mission goal has not yet been reached, especially due to the limited time span of used GOCE data (only 2 months), it was found that existing satellite-only gravity field models, which are based on 7 years of GRACE data, can already be enhanced in terms of spatial resolution. It is expected that with the accumulation of more GOCE data the gravity field model resolution and quality can be further enhanced, and the GOCE mission goal of 1–2 cm geoid accuracy with 100 km spatial resolution can be achieved.     

GOCE gravitational gradients along the orbit

GOCE is ESA’s gravity field mission and the first satellite ever that measures gravitational gradients in space, that is, the second spatial derivatives of the Earth’s gravitational potential. The goal is to determine the Earth’s mean gravitational field with unprecedented accuracy at spatial resolutions down to 100 km. GOCE carries a gravity gradiometer that allows deriving the gravitational gradients with very high precision to achieve this goal. There are two types of GOCE Level 2 gravitational gradients (GGs) along the orbit: the gravitational gradients in the gradiometer reference frame (GRF) and the gravitational gradients in the local north oriented frame (LNOF) derived from the GGs in the GRF by point-wise rotation. Because the V _XX , V _YY , V _ZZ and V _XZ are much more accurate than V _XY and V _YZ , and because the error of the accurate GGs increases for low frequencies, the rotation requires that part of the measured GG signal is replaced by model signal. However, the actual quality of the gradients in GRF and LNOF needs to be assessed. We analysed the outliers in the GGs, validated the GGs in the GRF using independent gravity field information and compared their assessed error with the requirements. In addition, we compared the GGs in the LNOF with state-of-the-art global gravity field models and determined the model contribution to the rotated GGs. We found that the percentage of detected outliers is below 0.1% for all GGs, and external gravity data confirm that the GG scale factors do not differ from one down to the 10⁻³ level. Furthermore, we found that the error of V _XX and V _YY is approximately at the level of the requirement on the gravitational gradient trace, whereas the V _ZZ error is a factor of 2–3 above the requirement for higher frequencies. We show that the model contribution in the rotated GGs is 2–35% dependent on the gravitational gradient. Finally, we found that GOCE gravitational gradients and gradients derived from EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 are consistent over the oceans, but that over the continents the consistency may be less, especially in areas with poor terrestrial gravity data. All in all, our analyses show that the quality of the GOCE gravitational gradients is good and that with this type of data valuable new gravity field information is obtained.