Long-Term Evolution of FU Ori-Type Stars at Infrared Wavelengths

We investigated the brightness evolution of 5 FU Ori systems in the 1–200 μm wavelength range using observations from the Infrared Space Observatory, 2MASS and MSX data. The SEDs were compared with earlier ones derived from the IRAS photometry and ground-based observations around the epoch 1983. In three cases no difference was seen, in one object the near- and mid-infrared part of the spectrum became fainter by a factor of 2, and in the fifth case a marginal fading was observed. We study in detail the case of V1057 Cyg.     

On the detectability of H2S in Jupiter

The influence of hydrogen sulfide, a still-undetected key molecule for the Jovian atmospheric chemistry in the infrared spectrum, was investigated. Synthetic spectra including various vertical distribution profiles of H₂S have been computed and compared with observational data for Jupiter in the 2- to 15-cm^?1 and 1160- to 1200-cm^?1 spectral ranges. No firm conclusion about the presence of H₂S can be drawn from the latter spectral region because of large uncertainties in gaseous opacities. In the microwave range, H₂S is found to be a possible candidate to explain the measurements. Constraints to its vertical distribution which would imply a significant supersaturation in the troposphere are derived. Physical and chemical processes involving H₂S in the atmosphere are discussed in the light of this hypothesis.     

Investigation of the climate-driven periodicity of shallow groundwater level fluctuations in a Central-Eastern European agricultural region

The distribution and amount of groundwater, a crucial source of Earth’s drinking and irrigation water, is changing due to climate-change effects. Therefore, it is important to understand groundwater behavior in extreme scenarios, e.g. drought. Shallow groundwater (SGW) level fluctuation under natural conditions displays periodic behavior, i.e. seasonal variation. Thus, the study aims to investigate (1) the periodic behavior of the SGW level time series of an agriculturally important and drought-sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe – the Carpathian Basin, in the north-eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain, and (2) its relationship to the European atmospheric pressure action centers. Data from 216 SGW wells were studied using wavelet spectrum analysis and wavelet coherence analyses for 1961–2010. Locally, a clear relationship exists between the absence of annual periodic behavior in the SGW level and the periodicity of droughts, as indicated by the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Aridity Index. During the non-periodic intervals, significant drops in groundwater levels (average 0.5 m) were recorded in 89% of the wells. This result links the meteorological variables to the periodic behavior of SGW, and consequently, drought. On a regional scale, Mediterranean cyclones from the Gulf of Genoa (northwest Italy) were found to be a driving factor in the 8-yr periodic behavior of the SGW wells. The research documents an important link between SGW levels and local/regional climate variables or indices, thereby facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, as these must take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.     

On the application of combined geoelectric weighted inversion in environmental exploration

Geophysical surveying methods are of great importance in environmental exploration. Inversion-based data processing methods are applied for the determination of geometrical and physical parameters of the target model. The use of this geoelectric inversion method is advantageous in environmental research where highly reliable information with large spatial resolution is required. The 2D combined geoelectric inversion (CGI) method performs more accurate parameter estimation than conventional 1D single inversion methods by efficiently decreasing the number of unknowns of the inverse problem (single means that data sets of individual vertical electric sounding stations are inverted separately). The quality improvement in parameter space is demonstrated by comparing the traditional 1D inversion procedure with a 2D series expansion-based inversion technique. The CGI method was further developed by weighting individual direct current geoelectric data sets automatically in order to improve inversion results. The new algorithm was named combined geoelectric weighted inversion, which extracts the solution by a special weighted least squares technique. It is shown that the new inversion methodology is applicable to resolve near-surface structures such as rapidly varying layer boundaries, laterally inhomogeneous formations and pinch-outs.     

A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany

Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions.     

Incremental CH4 and N2O mitigation benefits consistent with the US Government's SC-CO2 estimates

Benefit–cost analysis can serve as an informative input into the policy-making process, but only to the degree it characterizes the major impacts of the regulation under consideration. Recently, the US, amongst other nations, has begun to use estimates of the social cost of CO₂ (SC-CO₂) to develop analyses that more fully capture the climate change impacts of GHG abatement. The SC-CO₂ represents the aggregate willingness to pay to avoid the damages associated with an additional tonne of CO₂ emissions. In comparison, the social costs of non-CO₂ GHGs have received little attention from researchers and policy analysts, despite their non-negligible climate impact. This article addresses this issue by developing a set of social cost estimates for two highly prevalent non-CO₂ GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide. By extending existing integrated assessment models, it is possible to develop a set of social cost estimates for these gases that are consistent with the SC-CO₂ estimates currently in use by the US federal government.Policy relevanceWithin the benefit–cost analyses that inform the design of major regulations, all Federal agencies within the US Government (USG) use a set of agreed upon SC-CO₂ estimates to value the impact of CO₂ emissions changes. However, the value of changes in non-CO₂ GHG emissions has not been included in USG policy analysis to date. This article addresses that omission by developing a set of social cost estimates for two highly prevalent non-CO₂ GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide. These new estimates are designed to be compatible with the USG SC-CO₂ estimates currently in use and may therefore be directly applied to value emissions changes for these non-CO₂ gases within the benefit–cost analyses used to evaluate future policies.     

Analysis of soil boundary conditions of flash floods in a small basin in SW Hungary

Flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards of today. Due to the complexity of flash flood triggering factors, to prevent or mitigate flood triggered losses, numeric model based flood forecasting models are capable tools to predict stream water levels. The main goal of the current research was to reproduce two flow peaks with the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model and test the model sensitivity for various input parameters. To obtain sufficient input data, we monitored soil depth, maximum infiltration rate, soil moisture content, rainfall, time of concentration and flow. To obtain input data, parameters were calculated, measured in the Sás Valley experimental watershed (SW Hungary) or optimized with the built in function of the HEC-HMS. Soil moisture was monitored in the 1.7 km2 pilot catchment over the period between September 2008 and September 2009. HEC-HMS had a good performance reproducing the two events, however simulated flow time series are highly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture, infiltration rate and canopy storage. Outflow modeled data were verified for two flood events (June 4, 2008 and July 9, 2009). The HEC-HMS was over-sensitive for input soil moisture and with increasing input rainfall and increasing outflow, larger simulation errors were observed.     

Suppression of Periodic Disturbances in Seismic Aftershock Recordings for Better Localisation of Underground Explosions

For precise localisation of a potential underground nuclear explosion, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, during an on-site inspection, can set up seismic sensors to find the very small signals from aftershocks. These signals can be masked by periodic disturbances from, for example, helicopters. We present a new method to characterise every such disturbance by the amplitude, frequency and phase of the underlying sine in the time domain using a mathematical expression for its Hann-windowed discrete Fourier transform. The contributions of these sines are computed and subtracted from the complex spectrum sequentially. Two examples show the performance of the procedure: (1) synthetic sines superposed to a coal-mine induced event, orders of magnitude stronger than the latter, can be removed successfully, (2) removal of periodic content from the signals of a helicopter overflight reduces the amplitude by a factor 3.3 when the frequencies are approximately constant. The procedure cannot yet cope with peaks that change frequency too fast, for example by the Doppler effect when passing, and with peaks that lie too close to each other. Improvement to solve these problems seems possible.     

The chemical composition of surface water in the influence zone of the Severonikel smelter

This paper reports data on the chemical composition of surface waters (predominant ions and trace elements: approximately 40 parameters and elements) in the influence zone of the Severonikel Cu-Ni smelter in the town of Monchegorsk, Murmansk oblast. The long-continued discharge of waste waters has increased the mineralization and changed the proportions of ions in surface waters in the area: water in the sewage pond of the smelter is classed with brackish waters of the S ₄ ^2? class, Na⁺ group. The sequence of major ions in water bodies under aerotechnogenic load retains the natural succession of major cations, but their concentrations slightly increase. The maximum concentration of ions in the surface waters of the Monchegorsk testing area were detected in wintertime, and the minimum contents occur during the high water period. Water bodies under aerotechnogenic load are characterized by average mineralization values much higher than is natural. The highest concentrations of Ni and Cu (two to three orders of magnitude higher than the assumed background values) and practically all trace elements were found in water bodies receiving waste waters from the smelter. The concentrations of Ni and other heavy metals in the Moncha River are much lower than in other water bodies but more than one order of magnitude higher than the assumed background concentrations.     

On the accuracy of the ground force estimated in vibroseis acquisition

For a linear elastic Earth the time derivative of the ground force is considered proportional to the far-field wavelet. Under the assumption that the baseplate is stiff and the bending forces of the baseplate are negligible, the ground force is also approximated by the sum of the accelerations of the baseplate and the reaction mass weighted by the respective masses. Combining these two assumptions, the time derivative of the weighted sum is considered proportional to the far-field wavelet. This result, often referred to as the far-field wavelet assumption, although convenient and most often employed is not always valid. We explore its validity using the spectral harmonic ratios of recorded data, which are used extensively in data filtering and analysis of vibratory data. We show that the far-field wavelet assumption fails particularly for harmonic components of even order. More compact soil after repeated shots further invalidates this assumption. Non-linear modelling of the ground under the vibrator point may provide a direction towards solving this discrepancy. Finally, we describe a method for the estimation of the harmonic spectral ratios.