Phytoplankton composition and biomass across the southern Indian Ocean

Phytoplankton composition and biomass was investigated across the southern Indian Ocean. Phytoplankton composition was determined from pigment analysis with subsequent calculations of group contributions to total chlorophyll a (Chl a) using CHEMTAX and, in addition, by examination in the microscope. The different plankton communities detected reflected the different water masses along a transect from Cape Town, South Africa, to Broome, Australia. The first station was influenced by the Agulhas Current with a very deep mixed surface layer. Based on pigment analysis this station was dominated by haptophytes, pelagophytes, cyanobacteria, and prasinophytes. Sub-Antarctic waters of the Southern Ocean were encountered at the next station, where new nutrients were intruded to the surface layer and the total Chl a concentration reached high concentrations of 1.7 ??g Chl a L⁻¹ with increased proportions of diatoms and dinoflagellates. The third station was also influenced by Southern Ocean waters, but located in a transition area on the boundary to subtropical water. Prochlorophytes appeared in the samples and Chl a was low, i.e., 0.3 ??g L⁻¹ in the surface with prevalence of haptophytes, pelagophytes, and cyanobacteria. The next two stations were located in the subtropical gyre with little mixing and general oligotrophic conditions where prochlorophytes, haptophytes and pelagophytes dominated. The last two stations were located in tropical waters influenced by down-welling of the Leeuwin Current and particularly prochlorophytes dominated at these two stations, but also pelagophytes, haptophytes and cyanobacteria were abundant. Haptophytes Type 6 (sensuZapata et al., 2004), most likely Emiliania huxleyi, and pelagophytes were the dominating eucaryotes in the southern Indian Ocean. Prochlorophytes dominated in the subtrophic and oligotrophic eastern Indian Ocean where Chl a was low, i.e., 0.043-0.086 ??g total Chl a L⁻¹ in the surface, and up to 0.4 ??g Chl a L⁻¹ at deep Chl a maximum. From the pigment analyses it was found that the dinoflagellates of unknown trophy enumerated in the microscope at the oligotrophic stations were possibly heterotrophic or mixotrophic. Presence of zeaxanthin containing heterotrophic bacteria may have increased the abundance of cyanobacteria determined by CHEMTAX.     

Kinematic analysis and analogue modelling of the Passeier- and Jaufen faults: implications for crustal indentation in the Eastern Alps

Crustal deformation in front of an indenter is often affected by the indenter’s geometry, rheology, and motion path. In this context, the kinematics of the Jaufen- and Passeier faults have been studied by carrying out paleostress analysis in combination with crustal-scale analogue modelling to infer (1) their relationship during indentation of the Adriatic plate and (2) their sensitivity in terms of fault kinematics to the geometry and motion path of Adria. The field study reveals mylonites along the Jaufen fault, which formed under lower greenschist facies conditions and is associated with top-to-the-west/northwest shear with a northern block down component. In addition, a brittle reactivation of the Jaufen shear zone under NNW–SSE to NW–SE compressional and ENE–WSW tensional stress conditions was deduced from paleostress analysis. The inferred shortening direction is consistent with fission track ages portraying Neogene exhumation of the Meran-Mauls basement south of the fault. Along the Passeier fault, deformation was only brittle to semi-ductile and paleostress tensors record that the fault was subjected to E–W extension along its northern segment varying into NW–SE compression and sinistral transpression along its southern segment. In the performed analogue experiments, a rigid, triangular shaped indenter was pushed into a sand pile resulting in the formation of a Passeier-like fault sprouting from the indenter’s tip. These kinds of north-trending tip faults formed in all experiments with shortening directions towards the NW, N, or NE. Consequently, we argue that the formation of the Passeier fault strongly corresponds to the outline of the Adriatic indenter and was only little affected by the indenter’s motion path due to induced strain partitioning in front of the different indenter segments. The associated fault kinematics along the Passeier fault including both E–W extension and NNW to NW shortening, however, is most consistent with a northward advancing Adriatic indenter.     

临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

Towards global space geodetic mapping of the dynamic deformation field after great earthquakes

GPS systems can be used as seismometers by sampling ground positions to detect travelling seismic waves. Data from dense geodetic networks near large earthquakes have been used to improve magnitude estimates, for tsunami warning, and to better understand the rupture processes. Here, we present 1 Hz GPS records of the March 11th, 2011, Mw = 9.0 Tohoku earthquake at unprecedented teleseismic distances. The spatial and temporal variations of the three‐dimensional GPS displacement vector field show various body waves, Love and Rayleigh surface waves along the direct path, and Love waves from the more than 31 000 km long major arc path. These results suggest that seismic wavefields can be mapped at teleseismic distances globally using space geodesy and could thus be used for source and structural studies. Data from numerous real‐time kinematic GPS networks could be combined to show the displacement field, giving unparalleled views of Earth's response to large earthquakes.     

Windstorm of the eighteenth century in the Czech Lands: course,extent, impacts

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This paper addresses the course, extent, and impacts of a windstorm that occurred on 20–21 December 1740, in the Czech Lands. The analysis is based on...     

Design-based versus model-based sampling strategies: Comment on R. J. Barnes' “bounding the required sample size for geologic site characterization”

Two fundamentally different sources of randomness exist on which design and inference in spatial sampling can be based: (a) variation that would occur on resampling the same spatial population with other sampling configurations generated by the same design, and (b) variation occurring on sampling other populations, hypothetically generated by the same spatial model, using the same sampling configuration. The former leads to the design-based approach, which uses classical sampling theory; the latter leads to the model-based approach and uses geostatistical theory. Failure to recognize these two sources of randomness causes misunderstanding about dependence of variables and the role of randomization in sampling, unwarranted narrowing down the choice of sampling strategies to those that are model-based, and abuse in simulation experiments. This is exemplified in Barnes' publication on the required sample size for geologic site characterization by nonparametric tolerance intervals. A basic design-based strategy like Simple Random Sampling is shown to require smaller sample sizes than the model-based strategy advocated by Barnes. In addition, Simple Random Sampling is completely robust against model errors and less complicated.     

Computer estimation of intensities: The 1985 Berhida,Hungary, earthquake

In this paper a computerized method for the intensity estimation from macroseismic observations is presented. The successive steps of the MSK intensity scale (2° to 10°) receives weights according to the observations marked on the earthquake questionnaires. These weights are summed for the individual scale steps. The distribution of these summed weights and their relation to an experimentally chosen function of the criterion make it possible to estimate the appropriate intensity value and its reliability. By computer evaluation of earthquake reports an objective comparison of estimated intensities given by different seismologists can be made, provided that uniform earthquake questionnaires are used. The application of this method will result in more homogeneous intensity data.     

Model-free estimation from spatial samples: A reappraisal of classical sampling theory

A commonly held view among geostatisticians is that classical sampling theory is inapplicable to spatial sampling because spatial data are dependent, whereas classical sampling theory requires them to be independent. By comparing the assumptions and use of classical sampling theory with those of geostatistical theory, we conclude that this view is both false and unfortunate. In particular, estimates of spatial means based on classical sampling designs require fewer assumptions for their validity, and are therefore more robust, than those based on a geostatistical model.