Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy balance and evaporation loss of an irrigation reservoir equipped with a suspended cover in a semiarid climate (south‐eastern Spain)

The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of a suspended cover on the evaporation loss of an agricultural water reservoir (AWR). To this aim, a detailed data collection was carried out in a typical AWR located in south‐eastern Spain during 2 consecutive years. During the first year, the reservoir remained uncovered, while during the second year it was covered with a double black polyethylene (PE) shade cloth. On an annual scale, it was observed that the cover can provide a reduction of evaporation loss of 85%. Two approaches, energy balance and mass transfer, were used to analyse the effect of the cover on the evaporation process. Important modifications were observed on the magnitude, sign, annual trend and relative weight of the components of the energy balance. The changes were ascribed to the strong reduction of net radiation and to the substantial weight of the heat storage and sensible heat flux in the energy balance. A relevant finding was the contrast between the patterns of the annual evaporation curve for open‐water and covered conditions. The mass transfer approach allowed discriminating between the wind‐ and radiation‐shelter effects on the evaporation term. The reduction in water‐to‐air vapour deficit was the main factor explaining the high efficiency of the cover, whereas the reduction of the mass transfer coefficient was a modulating factor that accounted for the wind‐shelter effect. Overall, both approaches provided a sound basis to describe and explain the physical mechanisms underlying the high performance of the tested cover. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contrasting palaeosol development in two different tectonic settings: the Upper Buntsandstein of the Western Iberian Ranges, Central Spain

Palaeosols may offer excellent evidence for the development of sedimentary basins but few studies have used diagenetically altered material: here we show that material of this sort can also reflect the sedimentary environment. The Lower to Middle Triassic red beds of the western Iberian Ranges were deposited in a tectonically active half-graben in which subsidence rates varied along the basin as a response to differential fault movements. During this period the basin was filled by a set of fluvial units with interbedded palaeosols. The palaeosols show typical pedogenic calcrete profiles, although extensive dolomitization has deleted part of their microstructure; however, macrostructure and morphology are preserved. Differences in the maturity stages of the palaeosols are related to the changes in subsidence and sedimentation rates along the basin. Thus, two different scenarios are recognized at: (i) the hanging wall, Riba de Santiuste area, where palaeosols reach stage III as the episodic tilting of the floodplain inhibited the development of more mature soils and (ii) the footwall, Cercadillo area, where palaeosols attain stage V maturity, favoured by prolonged periods of tectonic stability resulting in lower sedimentation rates over the floodplain areas.     

Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of highly permeable layer on hydraulic system in a coastal aquifer

This study is aimed to understand the hydraulic mechanism of coastal aquifer systems that include highly permeable layers (HPLs). These hydrologic conditions can be found in many volcanic islands that are composed of a series of lava flows discharged into sea or other standing body of water. In the first part, we developed a numerical model based on the geologic and hydrologic data obtained from the eastern Jeju Island, Korea, of which the aquifer contains clinker and hyaloclastite layers. The simulation results reproduced spatial location of fresh‐saline water interface, especially the abrupt decline of interface at the inland part and the thickness variation of transition zone along the cross‐section observed at the eastern Jeju coastal aquifer. We were able to find out that these phenomena are strongly related to the presence of the HPL. In the second part, quantitative analyses were conducted with the use of hypothetical models in order to understand the dynamic characteristics of coastal system that includes HPLs. A series of sensitivity studies were conducted to assess the effect of the horizontal length and vertical depth of HPL on the spatial location of the interface toe and the configuration of transition zone. Various case studies have shown that the seawater intruded into the inland more as the horizontal length of HPL was increased and its vertical depth was decreased. In other simulations including two HPLs, the vertical distance between these two HPLs primarily controlled the flow regime, flux variations, and the configuration of the transition zone. Finally, we performed simulations to evaluate the effect of a rising sea‐level. This study provides more understanding of how the presence of HPL controls the seawater intrusion processes, and the spatial configurations of fresh‐saline water interface at coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An enhanced constitutive model for crushable granular materials

Studies in the past have tried to reproduce the mechanical behaviour of granular materials by proposing constitutive relations based on a common assumption that model parameters and parameters describing the properties, including gradation of individual grains are inevitably linked. However successful these models have proved to be, they cannot account for the changes in granular assembly behaviour if the grains start to break during mechanical loading. This paper proposes to analyse the relation between grading change and the mechanical behaviour of granular assembly. A way to model the influence of grain breakage is to use a critical state‐based model. The influence of the amount of grain breakage during loading, depending on the individual grain strength and size distribution, can be introduced into constitutive relations by means of a new parameter that controls the evolution of critical state with changes in grain size distribution. Experimental data from a calcareous sand, a quartz sand, and a rockfill material were compared with numerical results and good‐quality simulations were obtained. The main consequences of grain breakage are increased compressibility and a gradual dilatancy disappearance in the granular material. The critical state concept is also enriched by considering its overall relation to the evolution of the granular material. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tephra stratigraphy on the North Icelandic shelf: extending tephrochronology into marine sediments off North Iceland

Tephra stratigraphical and tephrochronological studies of marine core MD99‐2275 on the North Icelandic shelf have revealed 58 new tephra horizons within the last 7050 cal. a BP, bringing the total number of identified tephra layers to 76. So far, over 100 tephra layers have been identified in the entire core spanning the last 15 000 years. The majority of the newly identified tephra layers are basaltic in composition and originate from the most active volcanic systems in Iceland, namely Grímsvötn, Veidivötn‐Bárdarbunga and Katla. A total of 40 tephra layer land–sea correlations have been made within this time period, of which 16 represent absolutely dated tephra markers. In addition, two tephra marker series are revealed in the marine sediments and in the terrestrial tephra stratigraphy, located between c. 2300–2600 and between 5700–5900 years. For the last 15 000 years, 21 tephra markers have been recognized. The marine tephra layer frequency (TLF) reveals two peaks, within the last 2000 years, and between 5000 and 7000 years ago. It shows the same general characteristics as the terrestrial TLF curve in Iceland, which indicates that marine sediments can yield important information about volcanism in Iceland. This is useful in time segments in which terrestrial records are poor or non‐existent. The study contributes to a high‐resolution tephrochronological framework on the North Icelandic shelf, with core MD99‐2275 representing a potential stratotype section in the area, and for the northern North Atlantic–Nordic Seas region, as well as being an important contribution to the Lateglacial–early Holocene volcanic history of Iceland.     

A steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach for sub‐daily flow disaggregation

The estimation of sub‐daily flows from daily flood flows is important for many hydrological and hydraulic applications. Flows during flood events often vary significantly within sub‐daily time‐scales, and failure to capture the sub‐daily flood characteristic can result in an underestimation of the instantaneous flood peaks, with possible risk of design failure. It is more common to find a longer record of daily flow series (observed or modelled using daily rainfall series) than sub‐daily flow data. This paper describes a novel approach, known as the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach, for disaggregating daily flood flows into sub‐daily flows that takes advantage of the strong relationship between the standardized instantaneous flood peak and the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index. The strength of this relationship, which is considerably stronger than the relationship between the standardized flood peak and the event flood volume, is shown using data from six rivers flowing into the Gippsland Lakes in southeast Australia. The results indicate that the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach can be used to disaggregate modelled daily flood flows satisfactorily, but its reliability is dependent on a model's ability to simulate the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index and the event flood volume. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of probability distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis

Random variable simulation has been applied to many applications in hydrological modelling, flood risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, etc. However, computer codes for simulation of distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis are not available in most software libraries. This paper presents a frequency‐factor‐based method for random number generation of five distributions (normal, log–normal, extreme‐value type I, Pearson type III and log‐Pearson type III) commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis. The proposed method is shown to produce random numbers of desired distributions through three means of validation: (1) graphical comparison of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and empirical CDFs derived from generated data; (2) properties of estimated parameters; (3) type I error of goodness‐of‐fit test. An advantage of the method is that it does not require CDF inversion, and frequency factors of the five commonly used distributions involves only the standard normal deviate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.