Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model

A simplified climate model is presented which includes a fully 3-D, frictional geostrophic (FG) ocean component but retains an integration efficiency considerably greater than extant climate models with 3-D, primitive-equation ocean representations (20 kyears of integration can be completed in about a day on a PC). The model also includes an Energy and Moisture Balance atmosphere and a dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice model. Using a semi-random ensemble of 1,000 simulations, we address both the inverse problem of parameter estimation, and the direct problem of quantifying the uncertainty due to mixing and transport parameters. Our results represent a first attempt at tuning a 3-D climate model by a strictly defined procedure, which nevertheless considers the whole of the appropriate parameter space. Model estimates of meridional overturning and Atlantic heat transport are well reproduced, while errors are reduced only moderately by a doubling of resolution. Model parameters are only weakly constrained by data, while strong correlations between mean error and parameter values are mostly found to be an artefact of single-parameter studies, not indicative of global model behaviour. Single-parameter sensitivity studies can therefore be misleading. Given a single, illustrative scenario of CO₂ increase and fixing the polynomial coefficients governing the extremely simple radiation parameterisation, the spread of model predictions for global mean warming due solely to the transport parameters is around one degree after 100 years forcing, although in a typical 4,000-year ensemble-member simulation, the peak rate of warming in the deep Pacific occurs 400 years after the onset of the forcing. The corresponding uncertainty in Atlantic overturning after 100 years is around 5 Sv, with a small, but non-negligible, probability of a collapse in the long term.     

Echoes from the companion star in Sco X-1

We present simultaneous X-ray ( RXTE ) and optical (ULTRACAM) narrow-band (Bowen blend/He  ii and nearby continuum) observations of Sco X-1 at 2–10 Hz time resolution. We find that the Bowen/He  ii emission lags the X-ray light curves with a light traveltime of     s which is consistent with reprocessing in the companion star. The echo from the donor is detected at orbital phase ∼0.5 when Sco X-1 is at the top of the flaring branch (FB). Evidence of echoes is also seen at the bottom of the FB but with time-lags of 5–10 s which are consistent with reprocessing in an accretion disc with a radial temperature profile. We discuss the implication of our results for the orbital parameters of Sco X-1.     

Gravitational lensing in eclipsing binary stars

I consider the effect of the gravitational deflection of light upon the light curves of eclipsing binary stars, focusing mainly upon systems containing at least one white dwarf component. In absolute terms the effects are small, however they are strongest at the time of secondary eclipse when the white dwarf transits its companion, and act to reduce the depth of this feature. If not accounted for, this may lead to under-estimation of the radius of the white dwarf compared with that of its companion. I show that the effect is significant for plausible binary parameters, and that it leads to ∼25 per cent reduction in the transit depth in the system KPD 1930+2752. The reduction of eclipse depth is degenerate with the stellar radius ratio, and therefore cannot be used to establish the existence of lensing. A second-order effect of the light bending is to steepen the ingress and egress features of the secondary eclipse relative to the primary eclipse, although it will be difficult to see this in practice. I consider also binaries containing neutron stars and black holes. I conclude that, although relatively large effects are possible in such systems, a combination of rarity, faintness and intrinsic variability makes it unlikely that lensing will be detectable in them.     

Photometry of four binary subdwarf B stars and the nature of their unseen companion stars

We present light curves of four binary subdwarf B stars (sdB), Ton 245, Feige 11, PG 1432+159 and PG 1017−086. We also present new spectroscopic data for PG 1017−086 from which we derive its orbital period,   P =0.073 d  , and the mass function,   f _m=0.0010±0.0002 M_⊙.  This is the shortest period for an sdB binary measured to date. The values of P and f _m for the other sdB binaries have been published elsewhere. We are able to exclude the possibility that the unseen companion stars to Ton 245, Feige 11 and PG 1432+159 are main-sequence stars or subgiant stars from the absence of a sinusoidal signal, which would be caused by the irradiation of such a companion star, i.e. they show no reflection effect. The unseen companion stars in these binaries are likely to be white dwarf stars. In contrast, the reflection effect in PG 1017−086 is clearly seen. The lack of eclipses in this binary combined with other data suggests that the companion is a low-mass M-dwarf or, perhaps, a brown dwarf.     

VLT/FORS spectroscopy of faint cataclysmic variables discovered by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

We present medium-resolution VLT/FORS2 spectroscopy of six cataclysmic variables (CVs) discovered by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We determine orbital periods for  SDSS J023322.61+005059.5 (96.08 ± 0.09 min), SDSS J091127.36+084140.7 (295.74 ± 0.22 min), SDSS J103533.02+055158.3 (82.10 ± 0.09 min)  and SDSS J121607.03+052013.9 (most likely 98.82 ± 0.16 min, but the one-day aliases at 92 and 107 min are also possible) using radial velocities measured from their Hα and Hβ emission lines. Three of the four orbital periods measured here are close to the observed 75–80 min minimum period for CVs, indicating that the properties of the population of these objects discovered by the SDSS are substantially different to those of the CVs found by other means. Additional photometry of SDSS J023322.61+005059.5 reveals a periodicity of approximately 60 min which we interpret as the spin period of the white dwarf, suggesting that this system is an intermediate polar with a low accretion rate. SDSS J103533.02+055158.3 has a period right at the observed minimum value, a spectrum dominated by the cool white dwarf primary star and exhibits deep eclipses, so is an excellent candidate for an accurate determination of the parameters of the system. The spectroscopic orbit of SDSS J121607.03+052013.9 has a velocity amplitude of only  13.8 ± 1.6 km s⁻¹  , implying that this system has an extreme mass ratio. From several physical constraints we find that this object must contain either a high-mass white dwarf or a brown-dwarf-mass secondary component or both.