In situ U–Pb dating of micro-baddeleyite by secondary ion mass spectrometry

We introduce a technique for U–Pb dating of baddeleyite using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) in situ analysis of ng-mass crystals that cannot be efficiently extracted by conventional mineral separation techniques. Average ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages for Precambrian baddeleyite crystals are within < 0.3% of the respective isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry (ID-TIMS) ages. ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ratios are corrected for instrumental fractionation calibrated through linear regression in a Pb/U relative sensitivity vs. UO₂⁺/U⁺ calibration plot. Calibration is performed on separated baddeleyite crystals (～ 100–200 μm in maximum dimension) mounted in random crystallographic orientation. ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages for baddeleyite from Duluth gabbro (FC4b) and Kovdor are accurate within 1–2% when averaging 15–30 individual spot analyses and relative sensitivities calibrated on Phalaborwa baddeleyite. The relative difference of ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U between large crystals and micro-baddeleyite from FC4b is within ～ 1%. Comparison between silicate glass and baddeleyite, as well as replicate analysis of the same grains in different orientations relative to the incidence direction of the primary beam support previous evidence for bias in Pb/U sensitivity in baddeleyite due to variable crystal orientations. We successfully utilized oxygen flooding and a UO₂⁺/U⁺-based calibration to significantly reduce orientation dependent bias.     

巨型翼龙类能够飞行吗？

Many pterodactyloids had wingspans that vastly exceed those of any other flying animals, living or extinct. Ornithocheiroids and neoazhdarchidans were particularly large pterosaurs that regularly attained wingspans over 4 m. Certain members of these groups – Pteranodontia and Azhdarchidae – attained the largest wingspans of any pterosaurs, making them the largest flying animals known.     

In situ U–Pb SIMS (IN-SIMS) micro-baddeleyite dating of mafic rocks: Method with examples

An in situ U–Pb SIMS (IN-SIMS) method to date micro-baddeleyite crystals as small as 3 μm is presented with results from three samples that span a variety of ages and geologic settings. The method complements ID-TIMS geochronology by extending the range of dateable crystals to sizes smaller than can be recovered by physical separation. X-ray mapping and BSE imaging are used to locate target grains in thin section, followed by SIMS analysis on a CAMECA ims 1270, using the field aperture in the transfer column to screen out ions from host phases. Internal age precisions for the method are anticipated to range from 0.1% for Precambrian rocks to 3–7% for Phanerozoic rocks. Results establish a 2689 ± 5 Ma age for mafic dikes in the Wyoming craton, USA, a 1540 ± 30 Ma age for a subaerial lava flow from the Thelon Basin of northern Canada, and a 457 ± 34 Ma age for mafic dikes in the platform sequence of southeastern Siberia. The method is ideal for relatively non-destructive dating of small samples such as extraterrestrial rocks and precious terrestrial samples.     

New Urbanist developments in flood-prone areas: safe development,or safe development paradox?

Government policies intended to reduce flood losses can increase the potential for catastrophe by stimulating development inside the floodplain, a phenomenon referred to as the “safe development paradox.” New Urbanist design has the potential to both exacerbate and alleviate flood risks. Because they are built at relatively high densities, New Urbanist developments can exacerbate risk by placing more people and property in harm’s way. Conversely, New Urbanist design features theoretically better enable designers of New Urbanist developments to avoid floodplain portions of project sites than designers of conventional subdivisions. Using a sample of New Urbanist developments in the US that contain floodplain portions within their boundaries, this paper focuses on whether and why these developments locate built structures inside the floodplain. The authors find that roughly 30% of the developments locate structures inside the floodplain, and that the odds of locating structures inside the floodplain increase with the proportion of the project site located inside the floodplain and decrease with the presence of government policies that prohibit residential development in the floodplain. The authors also identify confusion among government planners regarding the distinction between pre and postconstruction floodplain boundaries. A subset of New Urbanist developments is found to have built structures located outside the postconstruction floodplain boundary, but inside the preconstruction floodplain boundary. This finding is cited as an example of the “safe development paradox” in action. The authors recommend changes in New Urbanist design codes and local government floodplain management to increasingly direct new development away from the floodplain.     

A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm for rapid quantification of geologic uncertainty

Geologic uncertainties and limited well data often render recovery forecasting a difficult undertaking in typical appraisal and early development settings. Recent advances in geologic modeling algorithms permit automation of the model generation process via macros and geostatistical tools. This allows rapid construction of multiple alternative geologic realizations. Despite the advances in geologic modeling, computation of the reservoir dynamic response via full-physics reservoir simulation remains a computationally expensive task. Therefore, only a few of the many probable realizations are simulated in practice. Experimental design techniques typically focus on a few discrete geologic realizations as they are inherently more suitable for continuous engineering parameters and can only crudely approximate the impact of geology. A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm (FPRA) has been developed for quantifying the forecast uncertainty as an alternative. The proposed algorithm relies on the rapid characterization of the geologic uncertainty space represented by an ensemble of sufficiently diverse static model realizations. FPRA characterizes the geologic uncertainty space by calculating connectivity distances, which quantify how different each individual realization is from all others in terms of recovery response. Fast streamline simulations are employed in evaluating these distances. By applying pattern recognition techniques to connectivity distances, a few representative realizations are identified within the model ensemble for full-physics simulation. In turn, the recovery factor probability distribution is derived from these intelligently selected simulation runs. Here, FPRA is tested on an example case where the objective is to accurately compute the recovery factor statistics as a function of geologic uncertainty in a channelized turbidite reservoir. Recovery factor cumulative distribution functions computed by FPRA compare well to the one computed via exhaustive full-physics simulations.     

A Landsat-based evaluation of lake water clarity in Maine lakes

Temporal trends in water clarity and land-use/land-cover (LULC), as well as the relationship between changes in water clarity and LULC, were analyzed using water clarity values extracted from Landsat images from 1986 to 2008, acquired for east-central Maine. Of 40 lakes identified using satellite imagery, our analysis found one lake with a significant decrease in water clarity. In a second data-set, with 99 lakes, we identified two lakes with a significant increase in water clarity. Analyses of the relationship between temporal changes in the water clarity and LULC did not identify any clear, consistent, relationships between changes in the water quality variables and LULC. Overall, the results of this study aid in the identification of the relationship between water clarity and LULC, and identify temporal changes in water clarity. The findings of this study support the previous research that demonstrates the ability of satellite imagery to be used in assessments of water clarity, thus enabling evaluation at broader spatial scales and longer temporal scales than assessments that rely solely on ground-based data.     

Historical trends of mercury and spheroidal carbonaceous particle deposition in sub-alpine lakes in the Great Basin,United States

The geochemistry of lake sediments was used to identify anthropogenic factors influencing aquatic ecosystems of sub-alpine lakes in the western United States during the past century. Sediment cores were recovered from six high-elevation lakes in the central Great Basin of the United States. The proxies utilized to examine the degree of recent anthropogenic environmental change include spheroidal carbonaceous particle (SCP), mercury (Hg), and sediment organic content estimated using loss-on-ignition. Chronologies for the sediment cores, developed using ²¹⁰Pb, indicate the cores span the twentieth century. Mercury flux varied between lakes but all exhibited increasing fluxes during the mid-twentieth century. The mean ratio of modern (post-A.D. 1985) to preindustrial (pre-A.D. 1880) Hg flux was 5.2, which is comparable to the results from previous studies conducted in western North America. Peak SCP flux for all lakes occurred between approximately A.D. 1940 and A.D. 1970, after which time the SCP flux was greatly reduced. The reduction in SCP input is likely due to better controls on combustion sources. Measured Hg concentrations and calculated sedimentation rates suggest atmospheric Hg flux increased in the early 1900s, from A.D. 1920 to A.D. 1990, and at present. Atmospheric deposition is the primary source of the anthropogenic inputs of Hg and SCPs to these high elevation lakes. The input of SCPs, which is largely driven by regional sources, has declined with the implementation of national pollution control regulations. Mercury deposition in the Great Basin has most likely been influenced more by regional inputs.     

Patterns of Irrigated Agricultural Land Conversion in a Western U.S. Watershed: Implications for Landscape-Level Water Management and Land-Use Planning

In irrigated agricultural landscapes, land-use conversion may have landscape-level social, hydrological, and ecological effects. We used geographic information systems (GIS) and interviews to analyze development effects on irrigation in the Henry's Fork Watershed, Idaho. Farmers developed irrigation there in the 19th century, and incidental recharge from canal seepage and flood irrigation raised groundwater levels and expanded wetlands. Cohesive culture in agricultural communities sustained irrigation systems until amenity-driven demographic shifts beginning in the 1970s led to development approved by local governments with land-use planning but no water-management authority. Although only 5% of irrigated land has been converted, development has fragmented irrigated landscapes and made canal-system operation more difficult, potentially reducing groundwater levels, wetland extent, and return flows critical to downstream irrigators and fish and wildlife. We discuss future scenarios, highlighting the need for increased communication among local and state governments regarding land use and water management in irrigated landscapes across the West.     

Fighting Fire with Fire: Does a Policy of Broad-Scale Prescribed Burning Improve Community Safety?

Wildfires cause enormous damage worldwide, particularly in Victoria, Australia, with growing populations in fire-prone ecosystems. Broad-scale prescribed burning is an established, yet controversial, wildfire management policy in Victoria and Australia. But does broad-scale prescribed burning reduce fire damage? The answer depends on how damage is measured. We propose that different perceptions about the efficacy of broad-scale prescribed burning derive from different disciplinary measures of damage (e.g., biodiversity, area burned, or fatalities). Although broad-scale prescribed burning reduces subsequent wildfire size, there is little evidence that it saves human lives and homes. Evidence suggests that small-scale fuel reduction may be more effective at saving lives. The prescribed burning debate might be better focused on what damage we wish to limit, and which measures are most effective at limiting this damage. In this context, the current policy focus on broad-scale prescribed burning targets may distract efforts from more effective lifesaving strategies.     

Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.