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91.
Mario?GómezEmail authorView authors OrcID profile M.?Concepción Ausín M.?Carmen Domínguez 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1107-1121
Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding. 相似文献
92.
Miriam Marzen Mario Kirchhoff Irene Marzolff Ali Aït Hssaine Johannes B. Ries 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(15):3808-3823
The endemic argan woodlands cover large parts of South Morocco and create a characteristic landscape with areas of sparsely vegetated and bare soil surfaces between single trees. This unique ecosystem has been under extensive agrosilvopastoral management for centuries and is now at risk of degradation caused by overgrazing and increasing scarcity and variability of rainfall. To investigate susceptibility to wind erosion, we conducted an experimental–empirical study including wind tunnel tests and a drone-generated digital elevation model and quantified wind-erodible material on five different associated surface types by means of sediment catchers. The highest emission flux was measured on freshly ploughed surfaces (1875 g m–2 h–1), while older ploughed areas with a re-established crust produced a much lower emission flux (795 g m–2 h–1). Extensive tillage may have been a sustainable practice for generations, but increasing drought and uncertainty of rainfall now lead to an acute risk of severe soil erosion and dust production. The typical crusted surfaces characterized by residual rock fragment accumulation and wash processes produced the second highest emission flux (1,354 g m–2 h–1). Material collected from tree-shaded areas (933 g m–2 h–1) was revealed to be a considerable source of organic material, possibly affecting substrate conditions positively on a larger regional scale. The lowest flux was measured on rock fragment-covered surfaces (301 g m–2 h–1). The data show that open argan woodland may be a considerable source for wind erosion and dust production, depending on surface characteristics strongly related to management. An adapted management must include the conservation of argan trees to offer a promising approach to prevent severe wind erosion and dust production and mitigate possible impacts of land-use change and climate change related shifts in wind and rainfall patterns. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd 相似文献
93.
94.
Davor Stanko Snježana Markušić Stjepan Strelec Mario Gazdek 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(18):642
This paper presents a major extension of seismic vulnerability research project on the site of Trako??an Castle based on the initial horizontal-to-vertical-spectral-ratio (HVSR) results from Stanko et al. (2016). The estimated HVSR site frequencies and HV amplification at Trako??an Castle can only be used as an indication of the initial soil site frequency and amplification, so-called natural soil model, corresponding to the subsoil profile without the influence of an earthquake. The equivalent-linear (EQL) site response analysis has been carried out for different earthquake scenarios for a maximum input rock peak ground acceleration (PGAROCK) that corresponds to return periods of 95 (0.08 g), 475 (0.18 g) and 1000 years (0.31 g). The aim of the research is to evaluate structural seismic design responses and to determine type and degree of damage caused by local site effect, which is the result of an alluvial basin and topographic influences. The main objective of this research is the formation of local microseismic zones based on an EQL analysis: surface spectral acceleration and amplification maps at the predominant frequency. Based on the HVSR frequency response of the core structure of Trako??an Castle and the Tower itself (fundamental and higher frequency modes), maps of surface spectral acceleration and soil amplification at different frequencies (3, 5 and 10 Hz) are developed for different input PGAROCK levels (0.08, 0.18 and 0.31 g) to evaluate seismic response of the Castle. Observed amplifications are correlated with ground motion polarization and directionality of the ground motion from the alluvial basin to the hilltop. Shortening of predominant frequencies (lengthening of the period), particularly in the alluvial basin, has been observed with higher input PGAROCK in the EQL analysis. This effect is not manifested in the Trako??an hill, and predominant frequencies match HVSR frequencies. The use of certain geophysical survey methods at historical sites is a big problem, because terrain features (e.g. steep hills, mountains, ridges, slopes, cliffs) create lack of space and make it impossible to carry out geophysical investigation. Microtremor measurements at historical sites can overcome this limitation and provide local seismic response and vulnerability behaviour of historical monuments without destroying their authenticity. Also, computational modelling can greatly improve the results. The EQL site response analysis on the site of Trako??an Castle has confirmed and improved the results of seismic response and vulnerability based on HVSR method. 相似文献
95.
96.
97.
Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez Daniela Zuloaga-Romero Gabriel A. Bernal Miguel G. Mora Omar-Darío Cardona 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):671-695
A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates. 相似文献
98.
Gaetano Manfredi Andrea Prota Gerardo Mario Verderame Flavia De Luca Paolo Ricci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2275-2298
Data of the Italian National Institute of Statistics are collected aimed at characterizing Reinforced Concrete (RC) building stock of the area struck by the 2012 Emilia earthquake (number of storeys, age of construction, structural typology). Damage observations, collected right after the event in reconnaissance reports, are shown and analyzed emphasizing typical weaknesses of RC buildings in the area. The evolution of seismic classification for Emilia region and RC buildings’ main characteristics represent the input data for the assessment of non-structural damage of infilled RC buildings, through a simplified approach (FAST method), based on EMS-98 damage scale. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) capacities for the first three damage states of EMS-98 are compared with registered PGA in the epicentral area. Observed damage and damage states evaluated for the PGA of the event, in the epicentral area, are finally compared. The comparison led to a fair agreement between observed and numerical data. 相似文献
99.
A hydrogeological study was completed within a sub-catchment of the Zerka River drainage basin, in western Jordan. The system
is characterized by anticlinal bending with an axis trending SSW–NNE and plunging a few degrees in the SSW direction. The
anticlinal structure diverts groundwater flow towards the SSW while the strike-slipe faults cause the groundwater to diverge
where the fault is perpendicular to the groundwater flow lines, and to converge where the fault is parallel to the groundwater
flow lines. A direct relationship was found between the location of springs and the type of groundwater flow with regard to
the amount of discharge wherein large spring discharges are located in zones of converging groundwater flow lines. In areas
where faults are not abundant, the groundwater retention time in the aquifers is long and a zonation of the electrical conductivity
was detected due to mineral dissolution. By controlling groundwater flow, the anticlinal setting produces three genetic groups
of groundwater flow systems: (1) alkaline–earth alkaline water which is predominately a bicarbonate-type composition, (2)
alkaline–earth alkaline water which is predominately bicarbonate–sulfate, and (3) alkaline–earth alkaline water with a high
alkaline component. 相似文献
100.
Barbara J. Thompson Sarah E. Gibson Peter C. Schroeder David F. Webb Charles N. Arge Mario M. Bisi Giuliana de Toma Barbara A. Emery Antoinette B. Galvin Deborah A. Haber Bernard V. Jackson Elizabeth A. Jensen Robert J. Leamon Jiuhou Lei Periasamy K. Manoharan M. Leila Mays Patrick S. McIntosh Gordon J. D. Petrie Simon P. Plunkett Liying Qian Peter Riley Steven T. Suess Munetoshi Tokumaru Brian T. Welsch Thomas N. Woods 《Solar physics》2011,274(1-2):29-56
We present an overview of the data and models collected for the Whole Heliosphere Interval, an international campaign to study the three-dimensional solar?Cheliospheric?Cplanetary connected system near solar minimum. The data and models correspond to solar Carrington Rotation 2068 (20 March??C?16 April 2008) extending from below the solar photosphere, through interplanetary space, and down to Earth??s mesosphere. Nearly 200 people participated in aspects of WHI studies, analyzing and interpreting data from nearly 100 instruments and models in order to elucidate the physics of fundamental heliophysical processes. The solar and inner heliospheric data showed structure consistent with the declining phase of the solar cycle. A closely spaced cluster of low-latitude active regions was responsible for an increased level of magnetic activity, while a highly warped current sheet dominated heliospheric structure. The geospace data revealed an unusually high level of activity, driven primarily by the periodic impingement of high-speed streams. The WHI studies traced the solar activity and structure into the heliosphere and geospace, and provided new insight into the nature of the interconnected heliophysical system near solar minimum. 相似文献