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61.
In this paper, nonparametric curve estimation methods are applied to analyze time series of wind speeds, focusing on the extreme events exceeding a chosen threshold. Classical parametric statistical approaches in this context consist in fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the tail of the empirical cumulative distribution, using maximum likelihood or the method of the moments to estimate the parameters of this distribution. Additionally, confidence intervals are usually computed to assess the uncertainty of the estimates. Nonparametric methods to estimate directly some quantities of interest, such as the probability of exceedance, the quantiles or return levels, or the return periods, are proposed. Moreover, bootstrap techniques are used to develop pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for these functions. The proposed models are applied to wind speed data in the Gulf Coast of US, comparing the results with those using the GPD approach, by means of a split-sample test. Results show that nonparametric methods are competitive with respect to the standard GPD approximations. The study is completed generating synthetic data sets and comparing the behavior of the parametric and the nonparametric estimates in this framework. 相似文献
62.
This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons. 相似文献
63.
Elizabeth Bryan Claudia Ringler Barrack Okoba Jawoo Koo Mario Herrero Silvia Silvestri 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):151-165
Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies. 相似文献
64.
The goal of this paper is to provide a model for binary-binary interactions in star clusters, which is based on simultaneous binary collision of a special case of the one-dimensional 4-body problem where four masses move symmetrically about the center of mass. From the theoretical point of view, the singularity due to binary collisions between point masses can be handled by means of regularization theory. Our main tool is a change of coordinates due to McGehee by which we blow-up the singular set associated to total collision and replace it with an invariant manifold which includes binary and simultaneous binary collisions, and then gain a complete picture of the local behavior of the solutions near to total collision via the homothetic orbit. 相似文献
65.
66.
Variations in the crustal structure along the northern African plate margin have caused different modes of collision with Eurasia. Lateral density variations along the central Mediterranean collision zone are expressed in a change of the angle of the downbending African Plate and lead to the formation of strike-slip transfers in these transition zones that are roughly perpendicular to the trend of the collisional zone. In some cases these transfer zones are developed into hinge faults, while in others they can be developed into transform faults. This process governs the segmentation of the collision zone in the central Mediterranean region south of the Maghrebian thrust belt in Tunisia and Sicily through the Calabrian Arc to the northeastern Hellenic Arc, extending further to the Cyprian Arc and to the Taurus-Zagros chain. 相似文献
67.
68.
Fabrizio Nestola Tiziana Boffa Ballaran Christian Liebske Marco Bruno Mario Tribaudino 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2006,33(6):417-425
The volume variation as a function of pressure along the jadeite–aegirine solid solution was determined at room temperature up to pressures between 6.5 and 9.7 GPa by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The unit-cell volumes collected at room pressure for the different compositions indicate a slight deviation from linearity along the join. The pressure–volume data have been fitted using a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state (BM3-EoS). The bulk modulus, K
T0, varies from 134.0(7) GPa for pure jadeite to 116.1(5) GPa for pure aegirine. Its evolution with composition along the join is not linear and can be described by the following second order polynomial:
The value of the first pressure derivative K′ is close to 4 for all the samples investigated and can be used in a BM3-EoS to determine the volume variations of these pyroxenes up to 7–10 GPa. Along the join the highest compressibility among the crystallographic directions is always observed along a, however, the compression along b is the most affected by compositional changes. The strain ellipsoid analysis indicates that the major compression occurs on the (0 1 0) plane along a direction at about 145° to the c axis (from c to a). The anisotropy of the compression increases with increasing the aegirine component, as confirmed by the analysis of both the axial compressibility and the strain tensor. 相似文献
(1) |
69.
Federico M. Dávila Mario E. Giménez Julieta C. Nóbile M. Patricia Martínez 《Basin Research》2012,24(6):615-636
The Pipanaco Basin, in the southern margin of the Andean Puna plateau at ca. 28°SL, is one of the largest and highest intermontane basins within the northernmost Argentine broken foreland. With a surface elevation >1000 m above sea level, this basin represents a strategic location to understand the subsidence and subsequent uplift history of high‐elevation depositional surfaces within the distal Andean foreland. However, the stratigraphic record of the Pipanaco Basin is almost entirely within the subsurface, and no geophysical surveys have been conducted in the region. A high‐resolution gravity study has been designed to understand the subsurface basin geometry. This study, together with stratigraphic correlations and flexural and backstripping analysis, suggests that the region was dominated by a regional subsidence episode of ca. 2 km during the Miocene‐Pliocene, followed by basement thrusting and ca. 1–1.5 km of sediment filling within restricted intermontane basin between the Pliocene‐Pleistocene. Based on the present‐day position of the basement top as well as the Neogene‐Present sediment thicknesses across the Sierras Pampeanas, which show slight variations along strike, sediment aggradation is not the most suitable process to account for the increase in the topographic level of the high‐elevation, close‐drainage basins of Argentina. The close correlation between the depth to basement and the mean surface elevations recorded in different swaths indicates that deep‐seated geodynamic process affected the northern Sierras Pampeanas. Seismic tomography, as well as a preliminary comparison between the isostatic and seismic Moho, suggests a buoyant lithosphere beneath the northern Sierras Pampeanas, which might have driven the long‐wavelength rise of this part of the broken foreland after the major phase of deposition in these Andean basins. 相似文献
70.
Investigating a Hierarchy of Eulerian Closure Models for Scalar Transfer Inside Forested Canopies 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
Jehn-Yih Juang Gabriel G. Katul Mario B. Siqueira Paul C. Stoy Heather R. McCarthy 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,128(1):1-32
Modelling the transfer of heat, water vapour, and CO2 between the biosphere and the atmosphere is made difficult by the complex two-way interaction between leaves and their immediate microclimate. When simulating scalar sources and sinks inside canopies on seasonal, inter-annual, or forest development time scales, the so-called well-mixed assumption (WMA) of mean concentration (i.e. vertically constant inside the canopy but dynamically evolving in time) is often employed. The WMA eliminates the need to model how vegetation alters its immediate microclimate, which necessitates formulations that utilize turbulent transport theories. Here, two inter-related questions pertinent to the WMA for modelling scalar sources, sinks, and fluxes at seasonal to inter-annual time scales are explored: (1) if the WMA is to be replaced so as to resolve this two-way interaction, how detailed must the turbulent transport model be? And (2) what are the added predictive skills gained by resolving the two-way interaction vis-à-vis other uncertainties such as seasonal variations in physiological parameters. These two questions are addressed by simulating multi-year mean scalar concentration and eddy-covariance scalar flux measurements collected in a Loblolly pine (P. taeda L.) plantation near Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. using turbulent transport models ranging from K-theory (or first-order closure) to third-order closure schemes. The multi-layer model calculations with these closure schemes were contrasted with model calculations employing the WMA. These comparisons suggested that (i) among the three scalars, sensible heat flux predictions are most biased with respect to eddy-covariance measurements when using the WMA, (ii) first-order closure schemes are sufficient to reproduce the seasonal to inter-annual variations in scalar fluxes provided the canonical length scale of turbulence is properly specified, (iii) second-order closure models best agree with measured mean scalar concentration (and temperature) profiles inside the canopy as well as scalar fluxes above the canopy, (iv) there are no clear gains in predictive skills when using third-order closure schemes over their second-order closure counterparts. At inter-annual time scales, biases in modelled scalar fluxes incurred by using the WMA exceed those incurred when correcting for the seasonal amplitude in the maximum carboxylation capacity (V cmax, 25) provided its mean value is unbiased. The role of local thermal stratification inside the canopy and possible computational simplifications in decoupling scalar transfer from the generation of the flow statistics are also discussed.
相似文献
“The tree, tilting its leaves to capture bullets of light; inhaling, exhaling; its many thousand stomata breathing, creating the air”. Ruth Stone, 2002, In the Next Galaxy