Origin and role of major strike-slip transfers during plate collision in the central Mediterranean

Variations in the crustal structure along the northern African plate margin have caused different modes of collision with Eurasia. Lateral density variations along the central Mediterranean collision zone are expressed in a change of the angle of the downbending African Plate and lead to the formation of strike-slip transfers in these transition zones that are roughly perpendicular to the trend of the collisional zone. In some cases these transfer zones are developed into hinge faults, while in others they can be developed into transform faults. This process governs the segmentation of the collision zone in the central Mediterranean region south of the Maghrebian thrust belt in Tunisia and Sicily through the Calabrian Arc to the northeastern Hellenic Arc, extending further to the Cyprian Arc and to the Taurus-Zagros chain.     

Nonparametric analysis of high wind speed data

In this paper, nonparametric curve estimation methods are applied to analyze time series of wind speeds, focusing on the extreme events exceeding a chosen threshold. Classical parametric statistical approaches in this context consist in fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the tail of the empirical cumulative distribution, using maximum likelihood or the method of the moments to estimate the parameters of this distribution. Additionally, confidence intervals are usually computed to assess the uncertainty of the estimates. Nonparametric methods to estimate directly some quantities of interest, such as the probability of exceedance, the quantiles or return levels, or the return periods, are proposed. Moreover, bootstrap techniques are used to develop pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for these functions. The proposed models are applied to wind speed data in the Gulf Coast of US, comparing the results with those using the GPD approach, by means of a split-sample test. Results show that nonparametric methods are competitive with respect to the standard GPD approximations. The study is completed generating synthetic data sets and comparing the behavior of the parametric and the nonparametric estimates in this framework.     

Mass fluxes of xenobiotics below cities: challenges in urban hydrogeology

Urban areas are the focus of major ecological, social and economical activity. They are thus also prime locations of increasing conflict with regard to water use and water protection. As a direct and/or indirect consequence of urban land use and human activity, urban water systems are frequently polluted with organic contaminants including waste water-born xenobiotics such as pharmaceuticals, personal care products (collectively known as PPCPs) and endocrine-active substances. This study reviews new integrated methodologies including flux calculations as well as chemical investigations for determining the impact of human activities on urban water systems and on processes within the urban watershed. The use of indicator substances, representing different contaminant sources and pathways, integral pumping tests and mass balance approaches are suitable alternatives within these environments. The issues are explored using contaminant mass balance examples from Halle/Saale and Leipzig, Germany.     

Impacts of Wildlife on Agriculture: A Spatial-Based Analysis and Economic Assessment for Reducing Damage

Over the last few years, the impacts of wildlife on agriculture have constantly been growing, in particular in areas close to woodland and in hunting ban zones (“refuge effect”). Public administrations have difficulty in meeting the growing requests for crop damage compensation. The development of appropriate measures to control this trend—starting from the understanding of the dynamics concerned—is crucial. The aim of this study was, therefore, to analyze damage at regional scale and define common local actions. In particular, the study involved different steps that define a spatial-based classification of risk levels, integrating statistical methods (principal component analysis and receiver operating characteristic) with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) in a geographic information system (GIS). It turns out that, in the study area, the very high-risk zones affect 8.83% of used agricultural areas; about 97% of them concentrated in the first 400 m from the most suitable habitats. A selected cluster of 11 test areas within these zones allowed us to assess the cost-effectiveness of integrated prevention and control actions (IPCA) with respect to the compensation of the damage. The analysis shows cost of IPCA to be nearly twice the actual cost incurred by the public administration to compensate partially the damage. The comparison with the estimated damage shows the overall economic convenience of the proposed investment with significant differences depending on the areas. Thus, we suggest reaching an “agro-ecological” balance starting from actions on specific areas; if they produce the desired effects, they could be progressively extended to other areas with gradual investments (adaptive management).

     

Variographic analysis of tropical forest cover from multi-scale remotely sensed imagery

Tropical forest mapping is one of the major environmental concerns at global and regional scales in which remote sensing techniques are firmly involved. This study examines the use of the variogram function to analyse forest cover fragmentation at different image scales. Two main aspects are considered here: (1) analysis of the spatial variability structure of the forest cover observed at three different scales using fine, medium and coarse spatial resolution images; and (2) the study of the relationship between rescaled images from the finest spatial resolution and those of the medium and coarse spatial resolutions. Both aspects are analysed using the variogram function as a basic tool to calculate and interpret the spatial variability of the forest cover. An example is presented for a Brazilian tropical forest zone using satellite images of different spatial resolutions acquired by Landsat TM (30 m), Resurs MSU (160 m) and ERS ATSR (1000 m). The results of this study contribute to establishing a suitable spatial resolution of remotely sensed data for tropical forest cover monitoring.     

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Forest Fire Alert System: a Geo Web GIS prioritization model considering land susceptibility and hotspots – a case study in the Carajás National Forest,Brazilian Amazon

To increase the monitoring potential of forest fires, an alert classification methodology using satellite-mapped hotspots has been established to help forest managers in the prioritization of which hotspot to be verified in the field, thus potentially improving the distribution of fire-fighting resources. A computer application was developed based on web-distributed geographical information technology whose main function is to interact automatically generated satellite hotspots and risk areas indicated in fire-susceptibility maps and classify them into five alert levels. The location of the hotspots is available continuously every 4 h, and a susceptibility map is produced daily through map algebra algorithm, which uses static (topography, vegetation and land use) and dynamic (weather) variables. Every process runs through automated geoprocessing routines. The methodology was tested during the dry period of 2007 in the Carajás National Forest, in the Brazilian Amazon, within an area of 400,000 ha. It is a critical area constantly threatened by fires caused by invasions and deforestation owing to intense agribusiness advances and mining activities in its surroundings. This situation results in observations of many hotspots inside the study area for the same day and almost the same time period, in places of extreme opposites, demanding complex rapid analysis and hindering the decision of the displacement of fire-fighting teams. Further, a major mining company operates within the National Forest area, maintaining actions of protection as part of its environmental mining license. Results are presented under three aspects: (i) the credibility of the daily susceptibility map (algorithm), which showed strong correlation between areas of greatest risks and the confirmed forest fires; (ii) the reliability of hotspots (alert levels), confirming 71% of fires; (iii) accuracy in the decision of which hotspot to be checked, which revealed the same number of verifications at different alert levels, 82% confirmed alert 5 hotspots (maximum) and only 50% from alert 1 (minimum), resulting in faster fire-fighting actions, minimizing burned areas and, in some cases, allowing fire control before its spreading. Therefore, the methodology demonstrated that GIS routines are able to determine the relationship between a reality-based, interpreted susceptibility map of the area and satellite-generated hotspots, highlighting the ones of highest hazard level through the alert classification, becoming an important tool to help decisions from the fire-control center, especially for high-risk regions. The methodology may be extrapolated to other forested areas.     

Seismic stratigraphy of Lago Puyehue (Chilean Lake District): new views on its deglacial and Holocene evolution

Prior to the collection of a series of sediment cores, a high- and very-high-resolution reflection seismic survey was carried out on Lago Puyehue, Lake District, South-Central Chile. The data reveal a complex bathymetry and basin structure, with three sub-basins separated by bathymetric ridges, bedrock islands and interconnected channels. The sedimentary infill reaches a thickness of >200 m. It can be sub-divided into five seismic-stratigraphic units, which are interpreted as: moraine, ice-contact or outwash deposits (Unit I), glacio-lacustrine sediments rapidly deposited in a proglacial or subglacial lake at the onset of deglaciation (Unit II), lacustrine fan deposits fed by sediment-laden meltwater streams in a proglacial lake (Unit III), distal deposits of fluvially derived sediment in an open, post-glacial lake (Unit IV) and authigenic lacustrine sediments, predominantly of biogenic origin, that accumulated in an open, post-glacial lake (Unit V). This facies succession is very similar to that observed in other glacial lakes, and minor differences are attributed to an overall higher depositional energy and higher terrigenous input caused by the strong seismic and volcanic activity in the region combined with heavy precipitation. A long sediment core (PU-II core) penetrates part of Unit V and its base is dated as 17,915 cal. yr. BP. Extrapolation of average sedimentation rates yields an age of ca. 24,750 cal. yr. BP for the base of Unit V, and of ca. 28,000 cal. yr. BP for the base of Unit IV or for the onset of open-water conditions. This is in contrast with previous glacial-history reconstructions based on terrestrial records, which date the complete deglaciation of the basin as ca. 14,600 cal. yr. BP. This discrepancy cannot be easily explained and highlights the need for more lacustrine records from this region. This is the second in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

Establishing a 14.6 ± 0.2 Ma age for the Nördlinger Ries impact (Germany)—A prime example for concordant isotopic ages from various dating materials

Abstract– ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of recrystallized K‐feldspar melt particles separated from partially molten biotite granite in impact melt rocks from the approximately 24 km Nördlinger Ries crater (southern Germany) yielded a plateau age of 14.37 ± 0.30 (0.32) Ma (2σ). This new age for the Nördlinger Ries is the first age obtained from (1) monomineralic melt (2) separated from an impact‐metamorphosed target rock clast within (3) Ries melt rocks and therewith extends the extensive isotopic age data set for this long time studied impact structure. The new age goes very well with the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step‐heating and laser probe dating results achieved from mixed‐glass samples (suevite glass and tektites) and is slightly younger than the previously obtained fission track and K/Ar and ages of about 15 Ma, as well as the K/Ar and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age data obtained in the early 1990s. Taking all the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age data obtained from Ries impact melt lithologies into account (data from the literature and this study), we suggest an age of 14.59 ± 0.20 Ma (2σ) as best value for the Ries impact event.     

The relationship between reference canopy conductance and simplified hydraulic architecture

Terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by vascular plants that form a mosaic of hydraulic conduits to water movement from the soil to the atmosphere. Together with canopy leaf area, canopy stomatal conductance regulates plant water use and thereby photosynthesis and growth. Although stomatal conductance is coordinated with plant hydraulic conductance, governing relationships across species has not yet been formulated at a practical level that can be employed in large-scale models. Here, combinations of published conductance measurements obtained with several methodologies across boreal to tropical climates were used to explore relationships between canopy conductance rates and hydraulic constraints. A parsimonious hydraulic model requiring sapwood-to-leaf area ratio and canopy height generated acceptable agreement with measurements across a range of biomes (r²=0.75)$(r^2=0.75)$. The results suggest that, at long time scales, the functional convergence among ecosystems in the relationship between water-use and hydraulic architecture eclipses inter-specific variation in physiology and anatomy of the transport system. Prognostic applicability of this model requires independent knowledge of sapwood-to-leaf area. In this study, we did not find a strong relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and physical or climatic variables that are readily determinable at coarse scales, though the results suggest that climate may have a mediating influence on the relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and height. Within temperate forests, canopy height alone explained a large amount of the variance in reference canopy conductance (r²=0.68)$(r^2=0.68)$ and this relationship may be more immediately applicable in the terrestrial ecosystem models.