Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Application of SASHA to seismic hazard assessment for Portugal mainland

In the frame of the UPStrat-MAFA “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources” project, seismic hazard has been assessed in Portugal in terms of macroseismic intensity. Assessment has been performed by using a probabilistic approach based on the statistical analysis of local seismic histories (i.e., the record of seismic effects at each locality) performed by a new version of the SASHA code (D’Amico and Albarello in Res Lett 79(5):663–671, 2008) on purpose modified to account for this specific area of study. Local seismic histories are reconstructed by considering documented effects or indirect estimates deduced from epicentral information or numerical simulations. All these pieces of evidence are combined taking into account relevant uncertainty and statistical completeness of information locally available. Distribution of expected maximum intensity (i.e., the maximum intensity characterized by a fixed exceedance probability for a exposure time of 50 years) has been obtained and compared with the one deduced from alternative approaches.     

Long-term Geomechanical Observation in the Jeroným Mine

Geomechanical measurements have been carried out in the medieval Jeroným Mine since 2001. At first quarterly observation and later also continual monitoring by distributed measurement network were used. The network includes a number of different sensors that have been installed in selected places of underground spaces. There have not been any manifestations documenting dangerous changes of stability during the period of monitoring (2001–2015). The results of accomplished measurements from all convergence profiles confirm the total stability of all underground spaces. However, a number of places have been documented as potentially unstable. Measured values of selected parameters are presented in the paper, namely, movements along fractures, changes of stress tensor and fluctuations in the level of mine water table.     

ASCA observations of the Galactic superluminal sources GRO J1655–40 and GRS 1915+105

We summarize the ASCA observations of the two Galactic superluminal sources GRO J1655–40 and GRS 1915+105, focusing on theabsorption line features.The high spectroscopic capability of ASCA enabled us to detectiron-K absorption line features from both objects. This is direct evidence for the presence of highly ionized plasma in a non-spherical configuration around a black hole, and is considered to be a unique signature of superluminal jet systems. The candidate of the line-absorber would be a part of an accretion disk at a distance of 10^9-11 cm from the central X-ray source.     

Observations of GRS 1915+105 from the USA Experiment on ARGOS

We present first results from a monitoring campaign of GRS 1915+105 undertaken with the USA X-ray timing experiment on the ARGOS satellite. A variety of behaviour has been observed, ranging from low, steady X-ray emission to rapid quasi-periodic flaring on timescales of approximately 10–120 seconds.     

Damped Oscillations of Coronal Loops

A mechanism of damped oscillations of a coronal loop is investigated. The loop is treated as a thin toroidal flux rope with two stationary photospheric footpoints, carrying both toroidal and poloidal currents. The forces and the flux-rope dynamics are described within the framework of ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The main features of the theory are the following: i) Oscillatory motions are determined by the Lorentz force that acts on curved current-carrying plasma structures and ii) damping is caused by drag that provides the momentum coupling between the flux rope and the ambient coronal plasma. The oscillation is restricted to the vertical plane of the flux rope. The initial equilibrium flux rope is set into oscillation by a pulse of upflow of the ambient plasma. The theory is applied to two events of oscillating loops observed by the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE). It is shown that the Lorentz force and drag with a reasonable value of the coupling coefficient (c _d ) and without anomalous dissipation are able to accurately account for the observed damped oscillations. The analysis shows that the variations in the observed intensity can be explained by the minor radial expansion and contraction. For the two events, the values of the drag coefficient consistent with the observed damping times are in the range c _d ≈2 – 5, with specific values being dependent on parameters such as the loop density, ambient magnetic field, and the loop geometry. This range is consistent with a previous MHD simulation study and with values used to reproduce the observed trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs).     

ISA accelerometer onboard the Mercury Planetary Orbiter: error budget

We have estimated a preliminary error budget for the Italian Spring Accelerometer (ISA) that will be allocated onboard the Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO) of the European Space Agency (ESA) space mission to Mercury named BepiColombo. The role of the accelerometer is to remove from the list of unknowns the non-gravitational accelerations that perturb the gravitational trajectory followed by the MPO in the strong radiation environment that characterises the orbit of Mercury around the Sun. Such a role is of fundamental importance in the context of the very ambitious goals of the Radio Science Experiments (RSE) of the BepiColombo mission. We have subdivided the errors on the accelerometer measurements into two main families: (i) the pseudo-sinusoidal errors and (ii) the random errors. The former are characterised by a periodic behaviour with the frequency of the satellite mean anomaly and its higher order harmonic components, i.e., they are deterministic errors. The latter are characterised by an unknown frequency distribution and we assumed for them a noise-like spectrum, i.e., they are stochastic errors. Among the pseudo-sinusoidal errors, the main contribution is due to the effects of the gravity gradients and the inertial forces, while among the random-like errors the main disturbing effect is due to the MPO centre-of-mass displacements produced by the onboard High Gain Antenna (HGA) movements and by the fuel consumption and sloshing. Very subtle to be considered are also the random errors produced by the MPO attitude corrections necessary to guarantee the nadir pointing of the spacecraft. We have therefore formulated the ISA error budget and the requirements for the satellite in order to guarantee an orbit reconstruction for the MPO spacecraft with an along-track accuracy of about 1 m over the orbital period of the satellite around Mercury in such a way to satisfy the RSE requirements.     

About Hypothesis of the Superconducting Origin of the Saturn’s Rings

Hypothesis of possible superconductivity of the iced matter of the rings of Saturn (based on the data of Voyager and Pioneer space missions) allow us to explain many phenomena which have not been adequately understood earlier. Introducing into planetary physics force of magnetic levitation of the superconducting iced particle of the rings, which interact with magnetosphere of the planet, becomes to be possible to explain origin, evolution, and dynamics of the rings; to show how the consequent precipitation of the rings’ matter upon the planet was concluded; how the rings began their rotation; how they were compressed by the magnetic field into the thin disc, and how this disc was fractured into hundreds of thousands of separated rings; why in the ring B do exist “spokes”; why magnetic field lines have distortion near by ring F; why there is a variable azimuth brightness of the ring A; why the rings reflected radio waves so efficiently; why exists strong electromagnetic radiation of the rings in the 20.4 kHz–40.2 MHz range and Saturnian kilometric radiation; why there is anomalous reflection of circularly polarized microwaves; why there are spectral anomalies of the thermal radiation of the rings; why the matter of the various rings does not mix but preserves its small-scale color differences; why there is an atmosphere of unknown origin nearby the rings of Saturn; why there are waves of density and bending waves within Saturn’s rings; why planetary rings in the solar system appear only after the Belt of Asteroids (and may be the Belt of Asteroids itself is a ring for the Sun); why our planet Earth has no rings of its own.     

Study of Distribution and Asymmetry of Solar Active Prominences during Solar Cycle 23

In this article we present the results of a study of the spatial distribution and asymmetry of solar active prominences (SAP) for the period 1996 through 2007 (solar cycle 23). For more meaningful statistical analysis we analyzed the distribution and asymmetry of SAP in two subdivisions viz. Group1 (ADF, APR, DSF, CRN, CAP) and Group2 (AFS, ASR, BSD, BSL, DSD, SPY, LPS). The North – South (N – S) latitudinal distribution shows that the SAP events are most prolific in the 21° to 30° slice in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres; the East – West (E – W) longitudinal distribution study shows that the SAP events are most prolific (best observable) in the 81° to 90° slice in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres. It was found that the SAP activity during this cycle is low compared to previous solar cycles. The present study indicates that during the rising phase of the cycle the number of SAP events are roughly equal in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. However, activity in the Southern Hemisphere has been dominant since 1999. Our statistical study shows that the N – S asymmetry is more significant then the E – W asymmetry.     

Massive cosmic strings in Bianchi type II

We study a massive cosmic strings with BII symmetries cosmological models in two contexts. The first of them is the standard one with a barotropic equation of state. In the second one we explore the possibility of taking into account variable “constants” (G and Λ). Both models are studied under the self-similar hypothesis. We put special emphasis in calculating the numerical values for the equations of state. We find that for ω∈(0,1], G, is a growing time function while Λ, behaves as positive decreasing time function. If ω=0, both “constants”, G and Λ, behave as true constants.