A secondary resonance in Mercury’s rotation

The resonant rotation of Mercury can be modelised by a kernel model on which we can add perturbations. Our kernel model is a two-degree of freedom one written in Hamiltonian formalism. For this kernel, we consider that Mercury is solid and rotates on a Keplerian orbit. By introducing the perturbations due to the other planets of the Solar System, it appears that, in a particular case, our slow degree of freedom may enter into a 1:1 resonance with the Great Inequality of Jupiter and Saturn. Actually, as the moments of inertia of Mercury are still poorly known, this phenomenon cannot be excluded.     

Reconstructing the spatial distribution of large vegetation formations during the mid-Holocene in Romania: a predictive modeling approach

The present study tests the usefulness of SoLIM software and GIS techniques for the reconstruction of large vegetation formations from the mid-Holocene period in Romania. We used current reference climate data (temperature, precipitation) and the current extent of ecological regions in Romania to derive climate optimality functions for each vegetation formation. The optimality functions were used to simulate current and past distributions of vegetation. The results showed that the current and mid-Holocene simulated spatial distributions of vegetation are quite similar. Changes were found for about 14% of the Romanian territory (33 946 km²), the most important being the retreat of coniferous forests in favor of mixed forests and of mixed forests in favor of forest steppe. The former is validated by previous pollen-based studies showing the transition from coniferous forests to mixed forests that occurred in several areas of the country after the mid-Holocene. The study demonstrates the potential of this methodological approach to reconstruct past vegetation formations, and at the same time that it is a straightforward and expert knowledge-based method. Although our application uses only climate factors, the results can be further refined by incorporating additional drivers (soil and landform information, site-specific pollen and fossil data, wildfire data) for a more accurate inference of paleovegetation.     

An evaporated seawater origin for the ore-forming brines in unconformity-related uranium deposits (Athabasca Basin, Canada): Cl/Br and δCl analysis of fluid inclusions

Analyses of halogen concentration and stable chlorine isotope composition of fluid inclusions from hydrothermal quartz and carbonate veins spatially and temporally associated with giant unconformity-related uranium deposits from the Paleoproterozoic Athabasca Basin (Canada) were performed in order to determine the origin of chloride in the ore-forming brines. Microthermometric analyses show that samples contain variable amounts of a NaCl-rich brine (Cl concentration between 120,000 and 180,000 ppm) and a CaCl₂-rich brine (Cl concentration between 160,000 and 220,000 ppm). Molar Cl/Br ratios of fluid inclusion leachates range from ∼100 to ∼900, with most values between 150 and 350. Cl/Br ratios below 650 (seawater value) indicate that the high salinities were acquired by evaporation of seawater. Most δ³⁷Cl values are between −0.6‰ and 0‰ (seawater value) which is also compatible with a common evaporated seawater origin for both NaCl- and CaCl₂-rich brines.Slight discrepancies between the Cl concentration, Cl/Br, δ³⁷Cl data and seawater evaporation trends, indicate that the evaporated seawater underwent secondary minor modification of its composition by: (i) mixing with a minor amount of halite-dissolution brine or re-equilibration with halite during burial; (ii) dilution in a maximum of 30% of connate and/or formation waters during its migration towards the base of the Athabasca sandstones; (iii) leaching of chloride from biotites within basement rocks and (iv) water loss by hydration reactions in alteration haloes linked to uranium deposition.The chloride in uranium ore-forming brines of the Athabasca Basin has an unambiguous dominantly marine origin and has required large-scale seawater evaporation and evaporite deposition. Although the direct evidence for evaporative environments in the Athabasca Basin are lacking due to the erosion of ∼80% of the sedimentary pile, Cl/Br ratios and δ³⁷Cl values of brines have behaved conservatively at the basin scale and throughout basin history.     

Who will win the green race? In search of environmental competitiveness and innovation

As the world considers greener forms of economic growth, countries and sectors are beginning to position themselves for the emerging green economy. This paper combines patent data with international trade and output data in order to investigate who the winners of this “green race” might be. The analysis covers 110 manufacturing sectors in eight countries (China, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, UK and the US) using date for the period 2005–2007. We identify three success factors for green competitiveness at the sector level: the speed at which sectors convert to green products and processes (measured by green innovation), their ability to gain and maintain market share (measured by existing comparative advantages) and a favourable starting point (measured by current output). We find that the green race is likely to alter the present competitiveness landscape. Many incumbent country-sectors with strong comparative advantages today lag behind in terms of green conversion, suggesting that they could lose their competitive edge. Japan, and to a lesser extent Germany, appear best placed to benefit from the green economy, while other European countries (Italy in particular) could fall behind. However, the green economy is much broader than the few flagship sectors on which the debate tends to focus, and each country has its niches of green competitiveness.     

A diagnostic study of future evaporation changes projected in CMIP5 climate models

It has been pointed out that climatological-mean precipitation-evaporation difference (P–E) should increase under global warming mainly through the increasing saturation level of moisture. This study focuses on evaporation changes under global warming and their dependency on the direct warming effect, on the basis of future projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Over most of the tropical, subtropical and midlatitude regions, the direct contribution from surface temperature increase is found to dominate the projected increase in evaporation. This contribution is nevertheless offset partially, especially over the oceans, by contributions from weakening surface winds and increasing near-surface relative humidity. Greater warming of surface air than of the sea surface also acts to reduce surface evaporation, by reducing both the exchange coefficient and humidity contrast at the surface. Though generally of secondary importance, this contribution is the dominant factor over the subpolar oceans. Over the polar oceans, the effect of sea-ice retreat dominantly contributes to the evaporation increase in winter, whereas the reduced exchange coefficient and surface humidity contrast coupled with the sea-ice retreat account for most of the response during summertime. Over the continents, changes in the surface exchange coefficient, reflecting changes in soil moisture and vegetation among other factors, are important to modulate the direct effects of the warming and the generally reduced surface air relative humidity.     

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.     

Climate-Caused Abrupt Shifts in a European Macrotidal Estuary

Although many consequences of climate change on marine and terrestrial ecosystems are well documented, the characterisation of estuarine ecosystems specific responses and the drivers of the changes are less understood. In this study, we considered the biggest Southwestern European estuary, the Gironde, as a model of a macrotidal estuary to assess the effects of both large- (i.e., North Atlantic basin-scale) and regional-scale climate changes. Using a unique set of data on climatic, physical, chemical and biological parameters for the period 1978–2009, we examined relations between changes in both the physical and chemical environments and pelagic communities (plankton and fish) via an end-to-end approach. Our results show that the estuary experienced two abrupt shifts (～1987 and ～2000) over the last three decades, which altered the whole system. The timing of these abrupt shifts are in accordance with abrupt shifts reported in both marine (e.g., in the North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and along the Atlantic) and terrestrial (e.g., in European lakes) realms. Although this work does not allow a full understanding of the dynamical processes through which climate effects propagate along the different compartments of the ecosystem, it provides evidence that the dynamics of the largest estuary of Southwest Europe is strongly modulated by climate change at both regional and global scales.     

Titan’s rotational state

In Noyelles et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 478, 959–970 (2008)), a resonance involving the wobble of Titan is hinted at. This paper studies this scenario and its consequences. The first step is to build an accurate analytical model that would help to find the likely resonances in the rotation of every synchronous body. In this model, I take the orbital eccentricity of the body into account, as well as its variable inclination with respect to Saturn’s equator. Then an analytical study using the second fundamental model of the resonance is performed to study the resonance of interest. Finally, I study the dissipative consequences of this resonance. I find that this resonance may have increased the wobble of Titan by several degrees. For instance, if Titan’s polar momentum C is equal to 0.355MR _T ² (M and R _T being, respectively, Titan’s mass and radius), the wobble might be forced to 41 degrees. Thanks to an original formula, I find that the dissipation associated with the forced wobble might not be negligible compared to the contribution of the eccentricity. I also suspect that, due to the forced wobble, Titan’s period of rotation may be somewhat underestimated by observers. Finally, I use the analytical model presented in this paper to compute the periods of the free librations of the four Galilean satellites as well as the Saturnian satellite Rhea. For Io and Europa, the results are consistent with previous studies. For the other satellites, the periods of the free librations are, respectively, 186.37 d, 23.38 y and 30.08 y for Ganymede, 2.44 y, 209.32 y and 356.54 y for Callisto, and 51.84 d, 2.60 y and 3.59 y for Rhea.