Survey on germination and species composition of dinoflagellates from ballast tanks and recent sediments in ports on the South Coast of Finland, North-Eastern Baltic Sea

Cyst beds in ships and ports in Finland have previously been unstudied. Therefore, sediments from ships' ballast water tanks and four Finnish ports were sampled for dinoflagellate cysts and other phytoplankton. Untreated sediments were incubated at 10 degrees C and 20 degrees C in the local 6 psu salinity for 1, 4 and 7 days, and vegetative cells were examined with light and scanning electron microscope. Sediments were inhabited by various dinoflagellates, diatoms, chlorophytes, cyanophytes and small flagellates. Germinated dinoflagellates were found in 90% of ballast tanks and in all ports. Gymnodiniales spp. and Heterocapsa rotundata formed a major proportion of the proliferating dinoflagellate cells. One species, Peridinium quinquecorne, not previously reported from the Baltic Sea, was identified with SEM. The study emphasises that ships are potential transport vehicles for dinoflagellate cysts even in the low salinity Finnish waters, and small-sized dinoflagellates should be focused upon in ballast water studies.     

Ideal width of transects for monitoring source-related categories of plastics on beaches

Although there is a consensus on the necessity of monitoring solid wastes pollution on beaches, the methods applied vary widely. Therefore, creating, testing and recommending a method that not only allows comparisons of places and periods, but also the detection of source signals, will be important to reach the objectives of the source-prevention principle. This will also allow the optimisation of time, resources, and processing of samples and data. A classification of the items found into specific categories was made according to their most probable source/use (fisheries, food packaging, hazardous, sewage/personal hygiene, beach user, general home). This study tested different widths of sampling transects to be used in the detection of plastics contamination on beaches, until all the categories were significantly represented. Each transect had its total width (50m) sub-divided into eight intervals of 0-2.5m; 2.5-5m; 5-10m; 10-15m; 15-20m; 20-30m; 30-40m; and 40-50m. The accumulated number of categories in the 50m (up to 2.5m; up to 5m and so on) was used to determine the minimal width necessary to qualitatively characterize the area regarding plastics contamination. The diversity of the categories was directly related to the area of the sampling transect. These results indicate that a significant increase in the number of categories in the first intervals tend to stabilize from 15-20m onwards.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Corridor location: the multi-gateway shortest path model

The problem of corridor location can be found in a number of fields including power transmission, highways, and pipelines. It involves the placement of a corridor or rights-of-way that traverses a landscape starting at an origin and ending at a destination. Since most systems are subject to environmental review, it is important to generate competitive, but different alternatives. This paper addresses the problem of generating efficient, spatially different alternatives to the corridor location problem. We discuss the weaknesses in current models and propose a new approach which is designed to overcome many of these problems. We present an application of this model to a real landscape and compare the results to past work. Overall, the new model called the multi-gateway shortest path problem can generate a wide variety of efficient alignments, which eclipse what could be generated by past work.     

The Bayesian detection of discontinuities in a polynomial regression and its application to the cycle-slip problem

This paper deals with the problem of detecting and correcting cycle-slips in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) phase data by exploiting the Bayesian theory. The method is here applied to undifferenced observations, because repairing cycle-slips already at this stage could be a useful pre-processing tool, especially for a network of permanent GNSS stations. If a dual frequency receiver is available, the cycle-slips can be easily detected by combining two phase observations or phase and range observations from a single satellite to a single receiver. These combinations, expressed in a distance unit form, are completely free from the geometry and depend only on the ionospheric effect, on the electronic biases and on the initial integer ambiguities; since these terms are expected to be smooth in time, at least in a short period, a cycle-slip in one or both the two carriers can be modelled as a discontinuity in a polynomial regression. The proposed method consists in applying the Bayesian theory to compute the marginal posterior distribution of the discontinuity epoch and to detect it as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) in a very accurate way. Concerning the cycle-slip correction, a couple of simultaneous integer slips in the two carriers is chosen by maximazing the conditional posterior distribution of the discontinuity amplitude given the detected epoch. Numerical experiments on simulated and real data show that the discontinuities with an amplitude 2 or 3 times larger than the noise standard deviation are successfully identified. This means that the Bayesian approach is able to detect and correct cycle-slips using undifferenced GNSS observations even if the slip occurs by one cycle. A comparison with the scientific software BERNESE 5.0 confirms the good performance of the proposed method, especially when data sampled at high frequency (e.g. every 1 s or every 5 s) are available.     

Evaluation of the Urban Tile in MOSES using Surface Energy Balance Observations

The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model.     

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.