Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.     

Unpacking governance: Building adaptive capacity to climate change of river basins in Brazil

Governance and institutions are critical determinants of adaptive capacity and resilience. Yet the make-up and relationships between governance components and mechanisms that may or may not contribute to adaptive capacity remain relatively unexplored empirically. This paper builds on previous research focusing on integrated water resources management in Brazil to ‘unpack’ water governance mechanisms that may shape the adaptive capacity of water systems to climatic change. We construct a river basin index to characterize governance approaches in 18 Brazilian river basins, apply a reliability test to assess the validity of these governance indicators, and use in-depth qualitative data collected in a subsample of the basins to explore the relationship between the governance indicators and adaptive capacity. The analysis suggests a positive relationship between integrated water governance mechanisms and adaptive capacity. In addition, we carry out a cluster analysis to group the basins into types of governance approaches and further unveil potential relationships between the governance variables and overall adaptive capacities. The cluster analysis indicates that tensions and tradeoffs may exist between some of the variables, especially with equality of decision making and knowledge availability; a finding that has implications for decision makers aiming to build adaptive capacity and resilience through governance and institutional means.     

Chemical characterization of fine particulate matter during peak PM10 episodes in Apulia (South Italy)

Some peak PM10 episodes, occurred during PM monitoring campaigns performed on October 2005 and February and June 2006 in Bari town, have been characterized. Moreover back trajectories of air masses and Principal Component Analyses were applied. Three of the peak PM10 episodes investigated were related to local emissions of primary pollutants during poor atmospheric dispersion conditions. The other two peak PM10 episodes considered are related with long range transport air masses toward Apulia region: in one case the chemical characterization and the back trajectories analysis indicate that high PM10 value detected is due to the Saharan dust advection in the Apulia region; in the other case air masses with different origin give rise to high PM10 value.Moreover PM10 daily mean concentrations, presented in this paper collected from January 2005 to August 2007 and obtained by automatic device in six stations of air quality monitoring networks in Bari territory, do not show a seasonal trend for PM10 concentrations, contrary to the PM10 trend shown in the towns of North Italy. This can be explained mostly considering that our region presents generally meteo-climatic conditions that favour pollutants dispersion.     

The activation energy values estimated by the Arrhenius equation as a controlling factor of platinum-group mineral formation

In ophiolite complexes and Ural/Alaskan-type intrusions the platinum-group element minerals (PGM) occur as laurite (RuS₂), erlichmanite (OsS₂), irarsite (IrAsS) and alloys (Os-Ir-Ru and Pt-Fe). They are commonly found as small inclusions (normally less than 10 μm, occasionally up to 100 μm) in chromite. The origin of coarse-grained PGM, in the form of 0.5-10 mm nuggets, in placer deposits related with mafic/ultramafic complexes remains still unclear. Literature data on grain size (r) of platinum-group minerals (PGM) and their formation temperature (range of temperatures between 700 and 1100 °C), revealed an Arrhenius temperature dependence. Correlation of the rate of crystal formation that depends on temperature (T) with the size (r) of the grain results in a linear relationship between ln(r) and 1/T. From the slope of the line n × ln(r) = −const. + E_act/RT the activation energy for the formation of IPGM (Ir-platinum-group minerals) was estimated, for the first time in the present study, to be approximately 450 ± 45 kJ mol⁻¹. Applying the Arrhenius equation, the corresponding formation temperature for extremely large IPGM grains (up to 1.3 mm) in chromite ores related to ophiolites was found to be approximately 740 °C. It seems to be consistent with a lower formation temperature than with the typical formation temperature of small PGM grains associated with ophiolitic chromitites. This suggests that coarse-grained PGM in mafic/ultramafic complexes, along the permeable shear zones, may have been re-crystallized during plastic deformation at relatively lower temperatures (700-800 °C), under appropriate pressure, temperature, redox conditions and an increased H₂O content. Thus, applying the plot of ln(r) versus 1/T on large Os-Ir-Ru-minerals (sulfides or alloys), characterized by an r value falling into the linear part of the graph and having evidence supporting their formation at relatively high temperatures, then the corresponding formation temperature of those IPGM can be found.     

Nonsulfide zinc deposits in the Silesia–Cracow district,Southern Poland

The Silesia–Cracow district in Poland has been one of the world’s principal sources of zinc from nonsulfide zinc ore (Polish: galman). The still remaining nonsulfide ore resources can be estimated at 57 Mt at 5.6% Zn and 1.4% Pb. Nonsulfide mineralization is mainly hosted by Lower Muschelkalk (Triassic) limestone and is associated with different generations of the hydrothermal ore-bearing dolomite (OBD I, II, III). A fundamental ore control is believed to have been exerted by the basement faults, which were repeatedly reactivated during the Alpine tectonic cycle, leading to the formation of horst-and-graben structures: these dislocations may have caused short periods of emersion and the circulation of meteoric waters during the Cenozoic. Nonsulfide ores show a wide range of morphological characteristics and textures. They occur as earthy masses, crystalline aggregates, and concretions in cavities. Breccia and replacement textures are also very common. The most important mineral phases are: smithsonite, Fe–smithsonite, Zn–dolomite, goethite, and Fe–Mn(hydr)oxides. Minor hemimorphite and hydrozincite have also been detected. Two distinct nonsulfide ore types occur: the predominant red galman and the rare white galman. In the white galman, Fe–smithsonite and Zn–dolomite are particularly abundant. This ore type is commonly considered as a peripheral hydrothermal alteration product related to the same fluids that precipitated both the OBD II–III and the sulfides. In contrast, a supergene origin is commonly assumed for the red galman. Evidence of the petrographic and mineralogical difference between white and red galman is also found in stable isotope data. Smithsonite from red galman shows a limited range of δ ¹³C_VPDB values (−10.1 to −11.4‰), and δ ¹⁸O_VSMOW values (25.3‰ to 28.5‰, mean 26.8 ± 0.3‰). The uniform and low carbon isotope values of red galman smithsonite are unusual for supergene carbonate-hosted deposits and indicate the predominance of a single organic carbon source. Smithsonite from white galman has a more variable, slightly more positive carbon isotope (−2.9‰ to −7.4‰), but broadly similar oxygen isotope composition (26.8‰ to 28.9‰). The relationship of the white galman ore with the hydrothermal system responsible for OBD II and sulfide generation is still uncertain. The most important paleoweathering events took place in both Lower and Upper Silesia during Late Cretaceous up to Paleogene and early Neogene time. During this period, several short-lasting emersions and intense weathering episodes facilitated the formation of sinkholes in the Triassic carbonate rocks and the oxidation of sulfide orebodies through percolating meteoric waters. These phenomena may have lasted until the Middle Miocene.     

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene precipitation changes in southern Patagonia

Holocene variations in annual precipitation (P_ann) were reconstructed from pollen data from southern Argentinian Patagonia using a transfer function developed based on a weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. The pollen–climate calibration model consisted of 112 surface soil samples and 59 pollen types from the main vegetation units, and modern precipitation values obtained from a global climate database. The performance (r² = 0.517; RMSEP = 126 mm) of the model was comparable or slightly lower than in other comparable pollen–climate models. Fossil pollen data were obtained from a sediment core from Cerro Frias site (50°24'S, 72°42'W) located at the forest-steppe ecotone. Reconstructed P_ann values of about 200 mm suggest dry conditions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (12,500–10,500 cal yr BP). P_ann values were about 300–350 mm from 10,500 to 8000 cal yr BP and increased to 400–500 mm between 8000 and 1000 cal yr BP. An abrupt decrease in P_ann at about 1000 cal yr BP was associated with a Nothofagus decline. The reconstructed P_ann suggests a weakening and southward shift of the westerlies during the early Holocene and intensification, with no major latitudinal shifts, during the mid-Holocene at high latitudes in southern Patagonia.     

Influence of high-pressure processing on the structure and memory effect of synthetic layered double hydroxides

We investigate the structural evolution of synthetic layered double hydroxides (LDH) samples, processed at room temperature and high-pressure (up to 7.7 GPa) in a toroidal chamber with two pressure-transmitting media, lead and graphite, using X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetry and N₂-adsorption isotherms techniques. The X-ray patterns of compacted samples show a decrease in the peak intensities. For both pressure-transmitting media, our samples revealed a reduction of the basal d-spacing for the (003) plane when processed at 7.7 GPa. The expected high-pressure-induced amorphization was not observed. Surprisingly, we find high-pressure processing to have a strong influence on the memory effect of the LDH, due essentially to the reduction of the surface area and pore closing. Even when immersed in water, our samples did not recover the LDH structure, when either calcined at 450°C and compacted at 7.7 GPa, or calcined at 700°C and immediately compacted at 2.5 and 7.7 GPa.     

Youth empowerment and information and communication technologies: a case study of a remote Australian Aboriginal community

In spite of a ‘digital divide’, Aboriginal groups in Australia, as internationally, are increasingly using information and communication technologies (ICTs) to maintain their cultures, communicate, archive knowledge, empower their communities, develop skills and generate income. Each community uses the technologies differently in accordance with their particular needs and the opportunities available. The use of ICTs in Aboriginal youth empowerment is illustrated through a case study of an initiative undertaken by the Walkatjurra Cultural Centre in Leonora, remote Western Australia. A participatory process was used to engage the Centre’s young people and they were given individual assistance to develop their ICT related capacity. The community conceives this youth empowerment to be part of a broader youth participation process that will contribute to the Centre’s overall objectives.     

Empty marine container logistics: facts,issues and management strategies

With the global container population exceeding 25 million TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) and the annual production of new boxes exceeding 3 million TEU it is estimated that around 1.5 million TEU of empty containers are sitting in yards and depots around the world waiting for use. Although utilization rates have improved since 2004, container utilization depends on the very dynamic nature of container transportation, and the container building and leasing industries. Owing primarily to the chronic trend of increasing trade imbalances across the oceans, and despite recent trends along some trade routes, the empty container management problem has become a major issue for the container shipping industry during the last decade. This paper examines and analyzes empty container logistics at a global, interregional, regional and local level. Special consideration is given to key factors affecting the empty container logistics management and strategies implemented by ocean carriers and other stakeholders to better manage empty containers.

Predictions of Energy and Helicity in Four Major Eruptive Solar Flares

In order to better understand the solar genesis of interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs), we model the magnetic and topological properties of four large eruptive solar flares and relate them to observations. We use the three-dimensional Minimum Current Corona model (Longcope, 1996, Solar Phys. 169, 91) and observations of pre-flare photospheric magnetic field and flare ribbons to derive values of reconnected magnetic flux, flare energy, flux rope helicity, and orientation of the flux-rope poloidal field. We compare model predictions of those quantities to flare and MC observations, and within the estimated uncertainties of the methods used find the following: The predicted model reconnection fluxes are equal to or lower than the reconnection fluxes inferred from the observed ribbon motions. Both observed and model reconnection fluxes match the MC poloidal fluxes. The predicted flux-rope helicities match the MC helicities. The predicted free energies lie between the observed energies and the estimated total flare luminosities. The direction of the leading edge of the MC’s poloidal field is aligned with the poloidal field of the flux rope in the AR rather than the global dipole field. These findings compel us to believe that magnetic clouds associated with these four solar flares are formed by low-corona magnetic reconnection during the eruption, rather than eruption of pre-existing structures in the corona or formation in the upper corona with participation of the global magnetic field. We also note that since all four flares occurred in active regions without significant pre-flare flux emergence and cancelation, the energy and helicity that we find are stored by shearing and rotating motions, which are sufficient to account for the observed radiative flare energy and MC helicity.